Hmmmmmmmm

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.html

Not too bad - But the green part seems to be getting closer.

I'd gladly sacrifice an unsettled Spain and UK temps held 'down' into the low-20's if it meant a continuation of the "HP to the NE/E of the UK and dry, settled weather" scenario we've had through May and now into June.

A lack of plumes & very high temps are a very small price to pay for predictable and nice conditions.

I think a breakdown to unsettled conditions by early next week is looking more visible amongst the NWP today. 

I’m going to make the most of this week.. just in case. 

ECM mean t+240.

Changes potentially afoot. Definitely a stronger signal today. 

Best case scenario, now that a form of breakdown is inevitable: quick breakdown, a couple of days of depressions that don’t drop much rain, then a reset with pressure building from the South West. Also shown in some runs. See GFS 12Z op and P10

Latest ECM monthly has a generally higher than average pressure pattern over this part of Europe for the rest of June, though with the main anticyclonic influence placed more to the SW than to the N, as in the case over the last couple of weeks. 

Sorry CP. 😁

Perhaps I could have phrased that better.. 

The worst I've seen yet - The green is now encroaching on this country.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.html

For the sake of variety and also in solidarity with our NW contingent I hope the blocked pattern of the last few weeks reasserts itself at some point.

Your posts make me think perhaps you  would benefit from talking to a shrink. A week or 2 of unsettled weather in June is very normal, infact it's so normal it even has a name's 'June monsoon' & 'return of the westerly'. There is no need for dismal posts of poor summer when we're only 6 days into meteological summer.

More and more plumes turning up at the end of the GEFS run. Looks like a very brief cooler more unsettled reset. Followed by Azores building in , with south westerlies and southerlies setting up.

Outlook now doesn't sound too bad.

I’m a great admirer of the oeuvre of your fellow all-lower-case contributor richardabdn and have decided to channel some of his poetic angst into my posting. It’s much more fun than just commenting on the models.

oh fair enough... I also enjoy reading his humouring posts 😁

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_213_1.png

Are we sure we don’t prefer a light drift off the North Sea? ;-)

Hopefully the pattern change won’t be quite as dramatic as the 00z GFS. 

I'm not liking the new pattern at all. Hopefully it's just a short term change but as Tim said earlier, this is looking very similar to recent summers which have generally been average at best. 

Quite a strong South Westerly. I don't like the low to the north. Good ridging into the continent though.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_213_1.png

I'd take that if it meant everywhere had crap weather rather than just us.

Depending on where that low ends up then I'd have no difficulty believing that chart would be much sunnier than what we currently have here.

Has it really been that bad over in your patch? I knew the east coast had been plagued with cool and cloudy weather but I thought Leeds had done ok really.

I absolutely agree that in general a SW'ly or W'ly drift would benefit east of the Pennines (a SW'ly often isn't that bad here either), but the danger of lows pushing across the country and stalling is that virtually the entire UK gets crap weather with outbreaks of heavy rain, not just the west.