It seems about time to wake up this perennial, as Florida has declared a state of emergency due to sub-tropical storm Alberto, the first named storm of the season (which doesn't start officially until June 1st, but Alberto jumped the gun). Current forecasts are for 10+ inches of rainfall, but no especially strong winds.

https://watchers.news/2018/05/26/florida-declares-state-of-emergency-subtropical-storm-alberto-dropping-heavy-rain/

Current forecasts for the whole season very quite widely, but the majority go for an average season or slightly above.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/alberto-approaches-florida-panhandle-deja-vu-flood-ellicott-city-md

A linked band of very moist air extends north up th east coast of USA, giving 12" of rain in 3 hours here in Maryland - the once-in-a-thousand year flood occurring twice in 3 years!

Also reports of 25" totals in Cuba over a longer period, directly due to Alberto..

Morning, Dew.

The following hurricane season mnemonic was pretty accurate in the 50s and 60s, I recall.

Not so now.

"The hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November , though November is not included in the old mariner’s rhyme — perhaps an indication of how seasons have shifted over the years:

June too soon

July stand by

August come it must

September remember

October all over . . ."

Link:

https://www.caribbean-beat.com/issue-49/june-too-soon

Roger

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Big-Moisture-Heading-Southwest-US-Thanks-Bud-and-Caribbean-Surge

A tropical wave in the Caribbean may develop into a named storm, though unlikely; but its moisture combined with that from storm Bud on Mexico's Pacific coast threatens major flash flooding in the SW United States. They need the water there .. there's been a record-breaking drought .. but probably not all at once.

Hurricane forecast for Atlantic downgraded, but Pacific should be more active

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/big-drop-CSUs-Atlantic-hurricane-outlook-Quiet-Atlantic-Active-Pacific

In view of the N Atlantic SSTs and in particular the stark contrast between warm and cold off Newfoundland shown in the link, I'm surprised that there isn't more cyclogenesis and/or active jet stream in our latitudes.

Which just goes to show that the drivers for our weather are extremely complex and having one indicator for a certain weather type is insufficient.

Good news for those poor countries that suffered from last year violent hurricanes and also meaning no effect for UK as we always get it after battering them as standard LP patterns.

Beginning to warm up - TS Beryl now in Central Atlantic but not expected to develop, while TD 96L near Bahamas is being monitored.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/TD-2-Forms-Central-Atlantic-Typhoon-Maria-Lashes-Guam-Heads-Okinawa

NHC forecast: No stronger than 40 mph for the next few days.

Actual: Minimal hurricane status as of late this morning!

Impressive that Beryl managed that over SSTs of only 26*C. I expect there's some cooler than usual air aloft for the instability to be sufficient for such development.

Beryl headed for Lesser Antilles as a hurricane, but still a small feature so could even miss the islands altogether.

TD2 in central Atlantic; 96L now upgraded to TD3 off North Carolina - doesn't look as if it will upset the N Atlantic circulation enough to end our heat wave.

"July -stand by"

Well, maybe it will. Upgraded to TS Chris and some forecast to feed off the Gulf Stream enough to become a hurricane by tomorrow, Tuesday. Chris has cropped up a month earlier than the average date for the third named storm of the season

Chris reached hurricane cat 2 status yesterday (tues) but is now getting caught up in Atlantic circulation as post-tropical storm. It'll certainly hit SE Newfoundland, and the forecast below has it positioned off NW Scotland on Sunday midday.

http://time.com/5333226/hurricane-chris-path-forecast/

But MetO keeping options open for an alternative southerly track with plumes and thunderstorms coming up from France. Either way, it looks as if it'll put a dent in continued fine weather.

There's a chance of a reload from the remnants of Beryl with a 50% chance of it regaining storm status by the end of the week. It seems to be following a similar track to Chris. While the NHC show Chris closer to Iceland than Scotland on Sunday https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?cone#contents, Beryl could take a more Southerly track closer to us.

I’m off to St John’s in Newfoundland on Saturday so will just miss the passing of ex hurricane Chris. Shame in a way but on the other hand I don’t want to waste a day of my holiday stuck indoors. Hopefully Beryl doesn’t follow the same path if the storm reactivates.

Beryl has indeed revived and is pursuing Chris' track as a tropical storm, though a bit further out to sea, so Newfoundland should have some good surf but otherwise not affected

No Atlantic hurricanes expected in the near future (say, 10 days) due to large amounts of dust from the Sahara suppressing vertical development. 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Quiet-Atlantic-Likely-Remainder-July

(ignore error message if you get one - the site sorts itself out after a few seconds)

Just for the record, we now have Debby in mid-Atlantic, but nothing to get excited about

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?cone#contents

Going to Punta Cana, Dominican Republic for two weeks from 23rd August, so I’ll be keeping an eye on this thread!   We usually stick to going either side of hurricane season but have thrown caution to the wind this year.  Hopefully not literally!  

My brother was there at the same time last year and experienced hurricane Irma!  I was with my sisters in Cape Verde at the time it formed!  We weren’t affected apart from our return flight having to take off with less fuel due to upper winds and then refuel in the Canaries!

Keep me updated with any Caribbean storm activity please guys!  

The old Hurricane season mnemonic goes:

June - too soon

July - stand by

August - come it must

September - remember

October - all over

This applied to Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward Islands - the seasons are a bit different further north and seem to have drifted a bit over the years. I have never been to Hispaniola.

Have a wonderful time.

Roger

We’ve been to Hispaniola a few times, though never to Haiti and it’s a beautiful island, very poor but the people are lovely, so it’s quite humbling! 

Keep me informed if anything starts brewing in that area!  Not that I can do anything about it but it’s good to be prepared!    

In the end it seems to have given the models a few headaches getting it incorporated into the warm sector of an Atlantic depression over this weekend. 

No new developments expected now for five days - sorry Caz, can't promise for a fortnight ahead..

The next subtropical storm, Ernesto, is doing a repeat of Debbie in mid Atlantic, and should also add energy and moisture to our N Atlantic circulation for the weekend. Weather-for-the-week-ahead admitting that models don't handle these events well, and still uncertainty as to the the path of the main rain band - thought at the moment to be headed for the Scottish borders, but could be north or south of this.

Ernesto is due to run into a patch of high SST and likely to intensify into a full tropical storm. Also a suggestion that thunderstorm activity may be promoted by smoke from Californian wildfires with the smoke particles providing condensation nuclei.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Deja-vu-Subtropical-Storm-Ernesto-Forms-Central-Atlantic

Could Ernesto break the record for the closest tropical cyclone to the UK? Probably not but it will definitely be in the top 10. Maybe even top 5.

Hi Q,

Do you think ex-Ernesto has any chance of regaining some tropical characteristics as it crosses the unusually warm Baltic Sea early Monday?

You see, I've seen on other sites a few 'core state' diagrams posted which show an asymmetric warm core being attained.

Shame the environment looks very sheared as otherwise there could have been 'Balticane' potential .