No complaints from me about the current outlook.....looking forward to some needed rain tomorrow

Exactly it could be miles worse with fresh NW winds, sub zero 850 temps and atlantic showers.  Rain tomorrow is much needed but after that i struggle to see any significant rain. 

As far as I can see it's looking warm sunny but windy...2 out of 3 isn't bad.

It had been the same for long time now with unsettled weather despite high uppers, come to the day either the uppers had been very wrong if day time maxes failed to reach 27-30C or 24 hours rain forecast on the ensembles are wrong and end up dry, hot and sunny.  The spikes have no dry slot so that not showers and more like washout days since they brought this idea up few days ago as they never show bone dry and 15C uppers same time.  it was very stubborn ensembles runs that won't remove the rain spikes or lower the uppers to realistic levels due to non-stop rain so more like 5 to 6C uppers this weekend.

Indeed. Looks fine to me - temperatures consistently in the low 20s is very good for Leeds at this time of year when the normal temp is more like 17/18C.

The 0z chart viewer from GFS shows rain or heavy rain EVERY day from here until the end of the run. Pretty poor to say the least. I hope the curse of years ending in '8' doesn't strike again.

Morning all. 

Doing my typical summer lurking...

To me it looks like a generally high pressure driven outlook and occasionally very warm. Some instability at times giving the risk of a shower, but certainly no sign at all of any dartboard lows.

Up here in Manchester this has felt like an exceptional spell of weather.. for its longevity if nothing else. Not very often you get 4 summery weekends on the trot (including two bank holidays). 

Happy campers all round up here.

 By your recent postings i am guessing you are a glass half empty type of person.

He builds arks 

Model precipitation output when there are convective showers around will almost always look worse than it is. The models will just throw great big blobs of heavy rain around when the reality will more likely be the odd hit and miss shower.

Not sure where you get that from. More like 12-14C uppers in the south this weekend.

Like today it supposed to be warmer and sunnier but still rather cold, overcast and mid teens and with the latest ensembles showing non-stop rain then day time temps would be suppressed very low so the uppers either need to be corrected down lower or the rain forecast being remove to allow the 12-14C uppers to proceed.  

Generally whatever Moomin says, the opposite will happen.  E.g  No severe wintry spell, the high pressure will sink, it will be mostly dry.....

I don't think the uppers are affected much by whether it is overcast or not. Just the ground temperature will be closer to the upper air temp than if it was dry and sunny.

Pretty impressive spell of warmer than average 850s. some showers around as well . If we can get some sustained sunshine though temps will be in the mid to high 20s. 

Come on chaps. Anyone with any idea of how things will be as we go into June.

" NOAA servers have been having connectivity problems since last night. Models can be late"

Connectivity issues are also affecting GEFS datasets. I've had nothing completing since the 18z updates.

The rest of this week is looking very cloudy, so hopefully we get some south westerlies soon to clear the murk that will no doubt plague us.

Looking good into June.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.html

Flicking through the output suggests a fairly lengthy spell of mostly HP dominated weather, with warm to hot being the order of the day for most of the UK. I don't really pay that much attention to the models at this time of year but every time I've dipped in to them lately the theme has been above average and a lot of HP around, suggesting there's a pretty decent chance of this verifying.

With the core of the HP often to the North or East this does allow some weather fronts to affect the North West at times and for showers to affect the south.

If you like this kind of thing, it could be the best end to Spring and start to Summer we've had for some years, especially for the Midlands up to Scotland, although with a sometimes fresh easterly breeze I imagine we're still talking about some cooler weather and the risk of some low cloud in the far east at times.

Personally I'd rather it was 5-10c cooler but I guess at least there's the chance of some storms to balance out the (for me!) unpleasant heat

Stav Danaos and others on Weather for the Week Ahead have referred to the present synoptic situation as 'particular;y stable' i.e. HP over Scotland, LP over France, a jet stream split with one branch going round each side of The HP/LP configuration. GFS and ECM bear him out - but why particularly 'stable'? 

ECM by the way promises a real roasting at T +240 (June 7th). No sign of any westerlies.