If you go back to the early part of this spring, the concept of me starting this thread just now would have been unthinkable due to the amount of rain which we had then. However, the rest of this spring has since been so dry that there now hasn't been any measurable rainfall at either Edinburgh Gogarbank or the botanic gardens in Edinburgh since 13 May 2018 and so according to what I have read, we are now just now two days away from an official absolute drought being recorded at both of those stations with no still no signs according to the latest model output, of any appreciable rainfall during the foreseeable future.

It might seem as though there was enough rain during the early part of this spring to see us through, but that doesn't tell us the full story. At the botanic gardens in Edinburgh, there was enough rain during that period for this spring to be wetter than average overall but for Edinburgh Gogarbank, it is a completely different story as the amounts of rain during this second half of the spring have been so small, that the total spring rainfall at that station now looks set to fall short of the 1981-2010 average (albeit though, by just a few millimeters).

If we go back a bit further, we had a wet summer last year, but that was then followed by a dry autumn and a slightly drier than average winter overall. This means that as far as Edinburgh Gogarbank is concerned, there hasn't been a wetter than average season there since last summer and even that turned out to be just a temporary interruption to what had been a very dry year until then with a lot of drought talk going on, on this forum at that time.

Looking back over the various posts at that time, I discovered lots of talk about severely depleted groundwater levels which are never going to be replenished overnight. Now, I know that there are parts of the country down south which are seeing anything but a drought just now with the thundery activity which has been going on there just recently. However, that type of rainfall is always very localised and because of that, it is still possible that some places even down there will also be drier than average as a result of them missing out on those thundery downpours.

In addition to that, I have seen a number of posts recently from members who have suggested that whilst this is a good time be making the most of this dry weather after all of the miserable weather of the earlier part of this spring, these members do see any rainfall as being very welcome for those gardens which could probably do with that. In addition to that, there has already been at least wildfire including here in Edinburgh, which has been caused by those very dry conditions. That is a risk which is only going to get worse as this dry weather goes on, as well as the fact that groundwater levels are bound to be further depleted over time, with those gardens also becoming even more desperate to see that increasingly welcome bit of rain.

According to a Scottish Youtuber who does a lot of weather-related stuff and who goes into the model output quite a lot, this really dry spell looks like continuing in this part of the world, well into the month of June and the start of the actual meteorological summer itself. With that in mind and bearing in mind those impacts and potential impacts which I have already mentioned, I thought that this would be a good time to start this thread off so that other forum members can also have their say on all of that.

That is why I mentioned that there isn't a drought everywhere since I know that there are some areas down south which have seen quite a bit of rain recently due to heavy showers and thunderstorms. I would probably say though, that the rainfall amounts have varied quite a lot across the country and at the moment, these variations appear to be more extreme than anything that I have ever seen before.

It's actually dried our nicely over May down here, and the landscape is starting to take on its more normal dry look. But late winter and early-mid spring saw quite a lot of rain.

But considering how wet Scotland normally is I don't see how a couple of months of 'dryer' then normal will harm. 

Actually, it is not all of Scotland which is wet for most of the time. I know that Scotland forms only a small part of the UK but there is still quite a lot of variation in the rainfall amounts even within Scotland itself. The wettest part of Scotland on average is in the north and west of Scotland which is exposed to the winds which on average, would usually be coming more from the west or south-west than from any other direction.

However, we also have our Scottish mountains which tend to get in the way of those moist winds from the Atlantic, and that then tends to have the effect of sheltering other places further to the east which are therefore, much drier overall as a result. In fact, it turns out that out of the four biggest cities in Scotland (Edinburgh, Glasgow, Aberdeen and Dundee), Edinburgh is actually the driest out of those four cities on average and therefore, isn't really as wet a place as what you would think that it is (no prize though, for guessing that Glasgow is the wettest of those four cities on average).

Sometimes as well when an area of high pressure is mostly affecting England and Wales, Edinburgh can then end up being just as dry as down south at that time as a result of being sheltered from those gentle south-westerlies which blowing in here around the top of that area of high pressure at that time, with the only difference being that it isn't as sunny here at that time as down south. While all of that is happening though, the rest of Scotland will then be more unsettled and that bit wetter so this again, is another example of Edinburgh being not as wet as you would think.

In any case though, the definition of when a drought starts is the same for the whole of the UK and is therefore no different for here than what it is for the south of England even though the effects of such a drought might be more severe than what they are up here. What is important here therefore, is that we are technically speaking about to enter an official drought and that is why I started this thread.

You might be wondering why I have decided to resurrect this old thread from the late spring but if you look very closely, the first thing which you might observe is that I have renamed the title of this thread so that I am now referring to a potential drought which might occur in the near future rather than any current ongoing drought situation. That to me, is much more relevant to the situation which we have just now.

When I first started this thread, Edinburgh was just about to enter an absolute drought but since parts of the south of England were getting a lot of rain from thunderstorms at that time, that was perhaps not seen by many to be the appropriate time to be starting this thread. However, a lot has changed since then. The latest forecasts have high pressure in charge by the end of this weekend and there are some medium range models which have high pressure remaining in charge, right up until the middle of July.

That in turn has generated a lot of talk about this summer possibly being a classic one and even though Gavin P. predicted in his own official summer forecast that this would be front-loaded summer with a deterioration later on, even he is now coming round to seeing that this could potentially, end up being a classic summer. Already, I am seeing a number of reports on this forum about the issues which this is already starting to create with an increasing number of reports about very parched lawns with the grass turning yellow/brown, powder dry soil and very hard ground due to the dry weather.

Indeed, this been the case even in locations which were getting a lot of rain from those earlier thunderstorms. Here in Edinburgh, we no longer have a drought and out of all the reports which I have been looking at on the precipitation watch thread, my part of the world is now looking like the wettest location there just now. The fact that this is happening despite the fact that this month is also running quite a lot drier than average even here just now, shows just how dry the country as a whole is just now.

The longer that this carries on, the greater the risks are that this could lead to a drought situation at least somewhere in the UK and if this does end up being a classic summer, I have no doubts whatsoever that this would lead to an increasingly widespread drought. It is for those reasons, that I have decided to bring this thread back to life so that others can have their say on that, and on where this might all be heading by the end of this summer and possibly beyond.

It happens most years in the south but has been rare in recent years further north.

Here cattle are starting to look for supplementary feed which means eating into winter stocks which are already looking rather light.

Something about the way there was almost no growth and very wet then sudden change to warm and dry has not suited plant growth this year.

Quite so - just finished putting half a dozen cans of water on the (rather small) garden, and every prospect of needing to continue.

The reports of thunderstorms in the south concentrated on the spectacular downpours, which although widespread were very local, and IMO should not be considered as evidence of a wet period. Here the first half of May was a little wetter than average, but since mid-May there's only been one short (1/2 hour) heavy shower at the end of May and nothing at all in June. I don't think Chichester is exceptional in this respect.

Ground water which supplies mains water in this area is not a worry as there was good recharge in December and again in March. Indeed, the Kennett and Lambourn catchment around Newbury is still under flood alert from ground water, dating back a couple of months.

https://www.southernwater.co.uk/regional-rainfall

https://www.floodalerts.com/

Lawns that are exposed to both sun and wind are fully brown round our estate - that's despite several rain events over the past week or so (including last night).

I've not been over the Pennines for a while, so can't comment on the level of the reservoirs.

I remember reading a couple of weeks ago that Yorkshire Water were saying the current levels in their area were at about 83%.

I happen to live in one of those downpour-dodging southern locations. Not a 100% avoidance record by any means, but enough to be of interest;

May 2018 managed 17 dry days and only 3 days saw 4 mm or more. 23.0 of the 39.2 mm for the month fell during the final 10 days. That final figure is 75.2% of the LTA, so pretty dry but not exceptional by any means.

However, 12 of the first 18 days of June have seen no measurable rainfall, and the other days have only seen 0.4, 0.2, 0.2, 0.4, 0.3 and 0.6 mm, with the rain mainly light or drizzly in nature. Last weekend could have brought some hefty downpours, but the reality saw so much cloud that sufficient surface heating was not achieved for showers to initiate.

So here I am with 6.3%C of the LTA rainfall for the first 18 days of June. The local public grass areas are turning increasingly brown with each passing day, and the local streams are down to a trickle. Without that wetter spell to finish May, I think it would be looking seriously parched around here.

Still, I'm not too concerned just yet, even with the unusually dry outlook for the next 7-10 days and counting, as the prospects for the rest of the summer are far from clear cut at this stage, and there's still a significant chance that the weather will deteriorate by mid-July.

Should we see a weak El Nino-like atmospheric response manifest in the Pacific, well then I will start to wonder what we might be faced with .

May rainfall: 27.7mm (a large part of this fell on the 2nd)

June rainfall to the 18th: 9.7mm

Our neighbours across the channel have a rather different issue:

Current situation at our nearby park:

I make that stage 2 browning, out of 5 (1 = slight hints, 2 is general olive green tinge and patches of yellow, 3 is mainly yellow except under trees or uncut areas, 4 is all yellow except uncut patches, 5 even long uncut grass is brown, and tree leaves are turning colour.

I'd put us at stage 1......I remember from my time in London in the 90s that stage 4 was regularly reached

Just 7.8mm here in the past 37 days and 5.4mm further East at Nigg. 

28 consecutive days with no measurable rainfall from 14th May to 10th June. 

Good to see the ground has finally dried up after years of excessive rainfall, especially in summer. 

Condition of the ground is variable with grass still green, though distresses, in places and very brown in others.

Some pictures:

Dunnottar Castle, Stonehaven, 7th June

Duthie Park in Aberdeen, 7th June:

Hazlehead, Aberdeen, 9th June:

Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, 14th June:

Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, 16th June:

Cults, Aberdeen: 17th June:

Definitely the worst since 2006 but that's not really saying much as I think only Spring 2011 and Summer 2013 have seen the grass going brown at all since then. A long way to reach 2003 levels of 50mm in 3 1/2 months.

Nice photos Richard and glad you are seeing some nice weather for a change. 

Over here, my June total is now well above 60mm, which is well above the national average of 19.4mm, but with just 10.2mm recorded at Dublin Apt over the last 30 days, I think there will be drought concerns coming into play if this next hot, dry spell promised for next week comes to pass. Very little if any rain forecast for the Dublin region for the foreseeable. 

I think that's correct, though here is SE Devon the top layers of the soil are amazingly dry - obviously if it carries on there will be deeper impacts.

I'll make a prediction (hoping to be wrong), I doubt my Davis rain gauge will tip again due to rainfall before, at the earliest, the month of July.

Well that's what the models are showing.....

Had about 3 weeks or so now with very little rain, but to be honest a 3 week period with no rain can happen (most years) from May to Septwmber... so 3 weeks with a little rain is nothing of concern.

Indeed, and I think they're right.

Tonight's weather has shown us even more that there is no drought in this part of the world just now as it is absolutely chucking it down with rain here in Edinburgh as I write. This has led to a total of 3.0 mm of rain being recorded for today so far at the botanic gardens as at 11pm tonight. Since there is still no data coming from Edinburgh Gogarbank, I can't get any up to date rainfall total for there but according to SEPA, a total of 3.0 mm of rain had been recorded for today at Edinburgh in total as at 10pm tonight. This means that today will go down as an official rain day at both of those stations and in fact, today is now the fourth day in a row which has failed to stay completely dry at either of those stations with two of those days being official rain days (days where there has been at least 1.0 mm of rain).

A number of forecasts have that rain clearing away to the south during the night but the latest BBC forecast doesn't have that rain clearing away until around 7am tomorrow morning so if it keeps on raining as heavily during the night as it is just now, those rainfall totals are going to be quite big by the time that this all clears away. If the latest forecasts are correct though, this is actually likely to be the last significant rainfall that we see for quite a while. For that reason, I think we can safely say that what we are getting just now is very welcome rainfall which should now help to keep our gardens well topped up in preparation for any long dry spell which begins once this rain has cleared away. That in turn should prevent the grass from getting too much of a yellow/brown colour in this part of the world.