MAY 2018 CET

All predictions for May to be sent to me via private message by 23:59 on Wednesday 2 May please to avoid penalties (final deadline is 23:59 on Thursday 3 May)

April was another month with a bit of everything. Often cloudy, wet and cool but some hot sunshine as well and thunderstorms for good measure. Maybe a decent bank holiday to come in early May

Historic CET summary for May

1971-2000 11.3C (30 years)

1981-2010 11.7C (30 years)

1998-2017 12.1C (last 20 years)

May has only come in below 11C three times since 1996 but all of these have been since 2010. Plenty of years above 12C with 13.2C in 2017.

My May CET prediction is 12.4C - close to the recent average.

Here is a chart of the May CET for all years since 1961:

Direct link to larger version of chart CHART

Current model output

A fairly average start to the year with some milder spells in the south but potentially turning colder - albeit lots of scatter in the second week

GFS (12z) - turning warmer for the bank holiday weekend but after that a lot of scatter 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=

ECM - fairly similar to GFS.

http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png

Multi op - both GEM and GFS trending warmer after a cool start

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=multi&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=OP&bw=

Met Office contingency planners outlook 

Not yet available. Should be released tomorrow.

Met Office Hadley             8.0c.         Anomaly       -1.4c. Provincial to 1st.

Metcheck                          8.10c.       Anomaly       -3.31c.

Netweather                       8.69c.       Anomaly       -2.62c.

Peasedown St John         9.7c.        Anomaly        -3.26c.      

Met Office Hadley            9.3c.      Anomaly       -0.2c. Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                         8.22c     Anomaly       -3.19c

Netweather                      9.0c       Anomaly       -2.31c

Mansfield Woodhouse    8.3c        Anomaly        -4.36c

Peasedown St John      9.1c.         Anomaly       3.2c

My average mean of 10 stations   9.3c.

Met Office Hadley           9.3c.       Anomaly      -0.3c. Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                        9.14c      Anomaly      -2.26c

Netweather                     9.43c      Anomaly      -1.88c

Cheadle Hulme Weather  9.4c       Anomaly      -3.6c

Clevedon Weather          10.8c      Anomaly       -2.48c

Mansfield Woodhouse     9.7c       Anomaly       -2.96c

Peasedown St John       10.3c      Anomaly      -2.62c

Treviskey Redruth        9.1c.       Anomaly       -3.38c.       

Mean Temperature Of My 10 Stations    10.26c.

Met Office Hadley               10.2c.         Anomaly         0.5c. Provisional to 4th.

Metcheck                            10.31c        Anomaly         -1.10c

Netweather                         10.38c        Anomaly         -3.2c

Hexam                              10.3c.         Anomaly          -1.42c

Mount Sorrel                     10.4c          Anomaly         -2.0c

Mansfield Woodhouse        10.5c           Anomaly        -2.16c

Peasedown St John            11.3c          -1.62c

Mean Temperature  of My 10 Stations   10.87c.          

Met Office Hadley              11.0c.       Anomaly      1.2c.   Provisional to 5th.

Metcheck                           10.98c.     Anomaly      -0.43c

Netweather                        11.27c      Anomaly      -0.04c

Alton                                10.6c       Anomaly       -1.7c

Canvey Island                   12.3c       Anomaly       -2.8c

Cheadle Hulme                 11.7c        Anomaly      -1.3c

Clevedon Weather            11.6c        Anomaly      -1.68c

Darwen                           13.4c        Anomaly       0.66c

Hexam                           12.5c         Anomaly       0.78c

Mount Sorrel                   11.9c        Anomaly       -0.5c

Mansfield Woodhouse        11.9c       Anomaly       -0.76c

Peasedown St John       12.6c         Anomaly       -0.36c

Treviskey Redruth            10.4c.       Anomaly       -2.08c.

Mean Temperature Of My 10 Stations      12.09c.     

Met Office Hadley          11.7c.          Anomaly       1.9c. Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                       11.76c         Anomaly       0.26c

Netweather                    12.08c         Anomaly       0.79c.

Hexam                         12.6c           Anomaly        0.88c

Mansfield Woodhouse  12.7c           Anomaly         -0.04c

Peasedown St John      14.5c          Anomaly          1.58c

Treviskey    Redruth     11.0c.         Anomaly          -2.48c.

Mean temperature of my 10 stations          12.92c.         

Met Office Hadley             12.5c         Anomaly       2.5c Provisional to7th.

Metcheck                          12.64c       Anomaly       1.23c 

Netweather                       12.75c       Anomaly       1.46c

Treviskey Redruth            11.9c         Anomaly       -0.58c

Clevedon Weather            12.8c         Anomaly       0.48c

Mansfield Woodhouse       14.3          Anomaly        0.64c

Peasedown St John          15.9c         Anomaly        2.98c

Mean Temperature Of My 10 Stations   13.83c.

Good to see the CET has rocketed up... Could be followed by a glide downwards for a while.

Met Office Hadley             12.8c         Anomaly         2.7c. Provisional to 8th

Metcheck                          12.89c       Anomaly         1.49c

Netweather                        13.09c      Anomaly         1.79c

Mansfield Woodhouse     13.2c          Anomaly         5.4c

Peasedown st John        15.5c          Anomaly      2.84c

I think that’s probably its peak and will start to fall for a few days at least.  It’s already above my 12.5c guess but I wouldn’t mind forfeiting that for more hot sunny days!  

No Update From Met Office Hadley 

Earlier on today

Metcheck           12.81c.       Anomaly     1.41c

Netweather        13.05c.       Anomaly     1.76c

Mansfield Woodhouse  13.1c    Anomaly   0.44c.

Peasedown St John      15.2c.  Anomaly    2.19c

Treviskey Redruth        11.3c   Anomaly    -1.18c. 

Mean temperature  of my 10 stations      13.51c,    

Two days no update from Met Office Hadley.....

Metcheck                      12.66c.       Anomaly      1.25c.

Netweather                   12.87c.       Anomaly      1.58c

Darwen                       13.8c.         Anomaly        1.06c.

Peasedown St John    14.9c           Anomaly        1.98c.

Mean temperature of my 10 stations   13.22c.  

No update again. 

Metcheck                       12.60c.         Anomaly         1.19c.

Netweather                    12.79c          Anomaly         1.5c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather  13.2c.           Anomaly         0.2c        

Clevedon Weather           12.4c.          Anomaly         -0.88c.

Mansfield Woodhouse      12.9c.          Anomaly          0.24c.

Peasedown St John         14.6c.         Anomaly          1.68c.

Treviskey Redruth           10.7c.         Anomaly          1.78c.

Mean Temperature Of My 10 Stations      12.22c.          

With apologies for the delay here is the list of predictions for May

Link to full size table TABLE

Thanks GW; I look to be considerably on the low side this month. The nights certainly in the south have been predominantly mild.

Thanks GW. Much appreciated as ever.  Great work, great competition.

Thanks for the table GW. Printscreen taken.

Yes great effort as usual GW. 

If the GFS 6z happens then I've got a chance otherwise I've probably gone to high.

Metcheck             12.54c        Anomaly       1.13c

Netweather          12.66c        Anomaly       1.37c.

Cheadle Hulme  13.0c.          Anomaly       0.0c

Mansfield Woodhouse  12.9c. Anomaly     0.24c.

Peasedown St John    14.3c.   Anomaly    1.38c.

Treviskey   Redruth    10.5c.    Anomaly    -1.98c.

Mean Temperature Of My 10 Stations    13.12c.

Thanks for the chart GW!  It’s always interesting to see what others have predicted.  

Thanks for the daily CETs Art!  

Not hard to see from there, that there are still no updates from Hadley on the actual official provisional CET value for up until yesterday, as that is the obvious one which is missing from this list.

On that note, I have just checked the Hadley website myself and confirm from that, that this indeed is still the case which means that there has been nothing from there since 9 May 2018 when they they published their figure for up to 8 May.

Met Office Hadley           12.0c       Anomaly      1.6c  Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                        12.31c.         Anomaly          1.11c

Netweather                     12.61c.         Anomaly          1.31c.

Clevedon Weather          12.3c           Anomaly           0.98c

Mansfield Woodhouse      12.7c.         Anomaly           1.74c

Mean Temperature Of My  10  Stations   13.05c.     

12.0 to the 13th

1.6 above the 61 to 90 average