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Christmas Weather Forecast

Will it be a white Christmas? Follow the countdown to 25 December 2026 and see how the odds of snow are shaping up across the UK and Ireland. Our model based regional outlooks run from late July, and our regularly updated, forecaster written perspectives are now underway.

113
sleeps until Christmas
2.15% of the way through the Christmas countdown
1st September Christmas Day

Games

Can't wait to find out if it will snow this Christmas? Play our free festive games to help pass the time.

Santa's Summit

New for Christmas 2026

Play Santa's Summit

Santa's Snow Show

Convert rain to snow and build a covering.

Play Santa's Snow Show

Santa's Puzzle Forecast

Solve the puzzles and learn fun weather facts.

Play Santa's Puzzle Forecast

Save our White Christmas

Turn the rain to snow to save the big day.

Play Save our White Christmas

Christmas Weather Updates

We provide two perspectives on the Christmas 2026 forecast:

  • The Weather Outlook says: Our expert view. Regular updates have started.
  • The Computer says: Raw computer model data. Daily updates have started.

We're back — it seems to come round quicker with every passing year! This year’s fun look at the Christmas weather prospects is underway, and regular updates will follow in the coming weeks. At this stage, we’re focusing on analogue years, which means finding the closest matches to 2026 and seeing what the weather was like at Christmas in those years. We're also looking at the seasonal models as well as teleconnections like El Niño, which offer some correlations with the UK’s winter weather..

That said, this is just for fun — usually it’s not until the middle of December that the fog really starts to lift and the Christmas Day weather comes into sight. So please enjoy this feature, but remember we’re not claiming to do the impossible and give an accurate forecast for Christmas Day months in advance!

The Weather Outlook Says

What's the latest outlook for a white Christmas?

The first update suggests a low chance of a white Christmas relative to the norm. The 30 day analogue tracker has the top three matches as:

  • 2019: high pressure close to the UK

  • 2013: a deep area of low pressure centred to the north

  • 2005: high pressure close to the UK

None of these gave a widespread white Christmas, although 2013 could have produced a few flakes of snow over high parts of the Scottish mountains. Seasonal models favour above average temperatures. The super El Niño event is more supportive of stormy spells during this part of the winter than snowy and cold ones.

Percentage chance of snow on Christmas Day:

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 4%

Updates: 1: 01/09/26

The Computer Says

Updated daily and generated automatically from long-range computer model data.

Southern England

Snow

Wales

Snow

Central England

Snow

Northern England

Snow

Scotland

Cold and dry

Northern Ireland

Snow

Republic of Ireland

Snow

Netherlands

Snow

Video Forecast 

Next video forecast update will be in November.

Christmas Charts and Data

Charts and data to help you make your own forecast.

850hPa Temperature Anomaly Forecast

The GEFS35 charts don't yet reach the Christmas period.

What do they mean? Blue shading indicates a colder than average air mass, while red indicates a warmer than average one. Therefore, if you're hoping for cold and potentially snowy weather it's blue you want to see over the UK.

GEFS35 850hPa temperature anomaly chart

 

The ghost of Christmas past

If the past is the best guide to the future, you may find it interesting to check out these charts from Christmases gone. Links open in a new window.

1981 - 2010 temperature average

Average temperatures on 25th December during the 1981–2010 period are shown on the chart below.

1981 to 2010 average temperatures for Christmas Day