Issued Sunday 19th May 2024
Issued 14th May 2024
The 14 day video forecast is usually updated weekly.
The 14 day discussion is usually updated twice each week.
Monday: Sunny periods develop in much of the UK, but there will be scattered showers too, particularly in the north west. Cool near the east coast, warm elsewhere.
Tuesday: Showers are expected to become widespread, with some heavy and thundery ones in the south and west. Despite that, there will be warm sunny spells too.
Wednesday: Wet and windy conditions are likely in eastern counties. In the rest of the UK there is a risk of showers and it will be cloudier than recently. Temperatures should be close to the norm.
Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday: Rain in the north and east steadily clears to leave drier and warmer conditions in most of the UK for a time. Later on outbreaks of rain push eastwards and they are followed by showery conditions. Temperatures close to the norm.
Forecast confidence is high falling to medium.
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All regions can expect showery periods of rain. Despite that, there should be a reasonable amount of dry and bright weather. Temperatures are forecast to be above the average and there is the potential for it to be warm on some days.
Forecast confidence is low.
High pressure will be centred to the northeast of the UK at the start of the week. Through Tuesday and Wednesday an area of low pressure moves northwards out of continental Europe. It brings the likelihood of wet and windy conditions to the north and east of Britain, but details are somewhat uncertain. Beyond that a westerly flow probably returns.
The chart below is from the UKM Global model. It shows pressure and precipitation at 12:00, Thursday 23rd May.
A wide range of outcomes are shown by computer models. However, there isn't a strong signal for high pressure to be dominant, so a changeable scenario is favoured. Nonetheless, areas of high pressure are expected to have influence at times.
The chart below shows the GEFS forecast mean surface level pressure on Wednesday 29th May.
A mix of weather is forecast for the two week period. Showers or longer spells of rain are possible in all areas, but there should be a reasonable amount of warm sunshine too.
The chart below shows forecast maximum temperatures on Thursday 23rd May.
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