Christmas weather forecast introduction
Welcome to our dedicated Christmas 2015 weather forecast page. If forecasting a few days ahead is prone to error in the UK how it is possible to forecast a single day several months ahead? The simple answer is it isn't! Usually it's not until the second week of December that confidence in the forecast begins to rise.
The 'computer says' forecasts are produced using data from the seasonal CFSv2 model and are updated daily. 'TheWeatherOutlook says' forecasts look at the data from the computer models and how the weather is developing during the autumn, and are usually updated weekly.
Please remember that and understand this page is primarily for fun, as the days grow shorter, the weather turns miserable, and the big day approaches.
The sixth update suggests an increased chance of a White Christmas in both the north and south. The reasons for this are:
1) Medium range computer models are showing the possibility of pressure rising to the north and west of the UK at times during the second half of November. This could set the pattern for the early part of the winter and would lead to a higher than average chance of cold snaps or spells.
2) Developments through November to date bear some similarities to previous years which have brought colder than average winters.
At this stage it remains far too early to be confident about the possibilities. Other factors such as the strong El Nino and westerly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) favour a mild start to the winter.
The temperature anomaly charts possibly indicate colder snaps being more likely to come from the north west and north rather than east. This would mean snow is more probable in the northern half of the UK and particularly over high ground.
Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas DayNorth of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 17%South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 12%
Forecast issuedUpdate 6, 14/11/2015
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Rain in the north west
Time for the snowrow
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