Dreaming of a white Christmas?

Can we expect snow this Christmas? Until a few days before the big day it's usually not possible to say with any certainty, but that doesn't stop us taking a fun look ahead as we count down to December 25th.   
 
 

Christmas 2016 countdown

Christmas weather forecast introduction

Welcome to our dedicated Christmas 2016 weather forecast page. If forecasting a few days ahead is prone to error in the UK how it is possible to forecast a single day several months ahead? The simple answer is it isn't! Usually it's not until the second week of December that confidence in the forecast begins to rise.

The 'computer says' forecasts are produced using data from the seasonal CFSv2 model and are updated daily. 'TheWeatherOutlook says' forecasts look at the data from the computer models and how the weather is developing during the autumn, and are usually updated weekly.

Please remember that and understand this page is primarily for fun, as the days grow shorter, the weather turns miserable, and the big day approaches.

TheWeatherOutlook daily update says

The thirteenth update suggests a lower chance of snow this Christmas in both the north and south. Computer model guidance is pointing towards milder conditions in the next week and during the run up to Christmas Day two scenarios are currently considered likely:

1) Changeable weather. This would bring a risk of rain at times and with temperatures fluctuating around the average any snow would probably be restricted to high ground in the north

2) Settled and dry conditions. This could bring nighttime frosts and chilly conditions through the days but snow would not be expected

Options 1 and 2 both suggest a low chance of snow but it is very important to point out there is still plenty of time for things to change. Don't write off a White Christmas yet! 

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 18%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 12%

Forecast issued
Update 13, 05/12/2016

The computer says [Issued 09/12/2016 09:10:08]

The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the north
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands

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Other forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook

Check the latest local weather forecasts using the place of postcode selector near the top of this page. Links below are to UK discussion and long range outlooks on the site.

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DISCUSSION

Regularly updated discussion forecasts.

14 day outlook

Monthly outlook

Seasonal outlook

Christmas outlook