Dreaming of a white Christmas?

Can we expect snow this Christmas? Until a few days before the big day it's usually not possible to say with any certainty, but that doesn't stop us taking a fun look ahead as we count down to December 25th.   

Christmas 2016 countdown

Christmas weather forecast introduction

Welcome to our dedicated Christmas 2016 weather forecast page. If forecasting a few days ahead is prone to error in the UK how it is possible to forecast a single day several months ahead? The simple answer is it isn't! Usually it's not until the second week of December that confidence in the forecast begins to rise.

The 'computer says' forecasts are produced using data from the seasonal CFSv2 model and are updated daily. 'TheWeatherOutlook says' forecasts look at the data from the computer models and how the weather is developing during the autumn, and are usually updated weekly.

Please remember that and understand this page is primarily for fun, as the days grow shorter, the weather turns miserable, and the big day approaches.

TheWeatherOutlook daily update says

The seventh update makes no change to the chance of snow in the north and south and a green Christmas is considered the most likely outcome. Some seasonal forecasting models are suggesting a 'front loaded winter' and if this is the outcome the highest chance of widespread cold and snow may occur between late November and the first half of January, possibly coinciding with the Christmas holidays. Despite this there is still an expectation of temperatures remaining close to average through the period as a whole.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%

Forecast issued
Update 7, 22/10/2016

The computer says [Issued 27/10/2016 12:11:25]

The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the north
  • Snow is expected in Scotland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Republic of Ireland
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands


Other forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook

Check the latest local weather forecasts using the place of postcode selector near the top of this page. Links below are to UK discussion and long range outlooks on the site.

You may be interested in

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Regularly updated discussion forecasts.

14 day outlook

Monthly outlook

Seasonal outlook

Christmas outlook