11.4C! 

After a very warm April we are now running well ahead of average. So it is already looking like everyone who made a prediction could be way too low. Long way to go though and plenty of time for things to turn cooler.

I am looking forward to the update for May GW, when you have the time

The way things are going, we may soon be eating into this 2011 CET anomaly

Sorry for the delay with this month's update. May was still a fairly warm month athough much less so than April.

The positive anomaly has come down a little but not by much. That could certainly change during June though as YD suggests. Would still have to be a cold second half of the year for us to end up below average though.





Thanks GW! 

after a warm spring  and a cool June my predictions are an average july/august, above average september, average october. Come November/ December we will have a repeat of last year. So I am predicting your CET to be well below average

after a warm spring  and a cool June my predictions are an average july/august, above average september, average october. Come November/ December we will have a repeat of last year. So I am predicting your CET to be well below average

Looking back on the predictions table, it's clear that at the beginning of the year when we were in the freezer, the majority of us went below average for the annual competition.  Yet once things started to hot up, the majority have gone for above average in the monthly competitions.  Just shows how influenced we are by current conditions. 

FINAL TABLE - 66 ENTRIES

Here is the June update. A slightly cooler month than average and so our positive anomaly comes down to just over 1C.

My annual CET stands at 9.55C to the end of June, the third highest in my series from 2003, behind 2007 (9.72C) and 2008 (9.73C). Next closest is 2003 at 9.45C. Its going to take a very warm July/August combination to keep 2011 in the running for my warmest year!

CET so far for here running at 8.95c

July saw the biggest negative anomaly on the CET this year but overall we are still 0.70C above the 1971-2000 average which would mean a CET for the year as a whole well in excess of 10C. So lots more cool months needed if we are to finish below 10C again. Virtually no chance of finishing below 9C now barring the commencement of the next ice age!



Thanks GW.  Shame there aren't just 7 months this year as the current figure of 9.99C is exactly what I predicted!

August was the third consecutive below average month. We have now had 4 below average and 4 above average months. But the record breaking April and very warm February mean that we are still 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean. Still time to end up below average if we get a cool Autumn. At this point I would say anyone who has predicted 9.5C or more is still in with a chance.

If the remaining months were to come out level with the 71-00 average we would end up finishing on 10.13c. A repeat of 2006 would give 10.82c and a repeat of last year would give 9.50c. My moneys on an outcome very close to 10c

How far above the 1981-2010 average are we at the moment?

We are currently 0.22C above the 1981-2010 average (which is 10.46C to the end of August)

Incidentally for reference the 1981-2010 average for the whole year is 10.01C.

If the remaining months were to come out level with the 71-00 average we would end up finishing on 10.13c. A repeat of 2006 would give 10.82c and a repeat of last year would give 9.50c. My moneys on an outcome very close to 10c

Yes indeed. In fact if we repeated last year up to 20 Nov we would be in the same position as if we tracked the 1971-2000 average. That cold last 6 weeks of 2010 made such a huge difference.

In the chart below the line with the small dashes (2011A) shows the position if we track the 1971-2000 mean for the rest of the year and the line with the larger dashes shows what would happen if we repeated last year (2011B). Hence the comment in my earlier post that anyone who has predicted a figure of more than 9.5C for this year is still in with a chance.



What if it's like 1676?

September was the fifth above average month of the year and a significantly above average month at that. We are now running about 0.6C above the 1971-2000 average. Warmest first 9 months of the year since 2007.

Now, that just goes to show what a strange year it's been and how the annual CET can turn out even with a cool summer.  It's almost as though all the seasons are rolling into one.