Looked at many of the synoptses for these events. The 2022 event has the potential to eclipse all of these.

To enphasise: this almost certainly won't happen but there is huge potential here.

The frigid airmass over greenland combined with the transient GH reminds me of early April 2021 which brought some of the most insanely cold uppers I've ever seen for the time of year.

No reason why we can't get below -5C in Scotland T850 which should be enough for low level snow at night.

Progged maxima on the 27th

11-12C in S ENgland

8-10C N England

7-9C S Scotland

6-9C N Scotland (and obv colder in the highlands)

Looked at many of the synoptses for these events. The 2022 event has the potential to eclipse all of these.

To enphasise: this almost certainly won't happen but there is huge potential here.

The frigid airmass over greenland combined with the transient GH reminds me of early April 2021 which brought some of the most insanely cold uppers I've ever seen for the time of year.

No reason why we can't get below -5C in Scotland T850 which should be enough for low level snow at night.

 

I thought -5c 850's in the UK were fairly common in September. Nothing out of the ordinary ? 

 

I thought -5c 850's in the UK were fairly common in September. Nothing out of the ordinary ? 

Outside of the northern isles I don't think they are common at all. In fact they would even be considered rare at the end of October.

P10 is legitimately record breaking.

This would undoubtedly be the coldest September day ever if it came off. Snow would be widespread, at least by night, to lower levels in the north.

A closer look at P10

Temps widely at their February average for most of the UK.

A closer look at P10

Temps widely at their February average for most of the UK.

 

It's only one member of the ens suite, even if op and control  are hard on its heels - but try P29 as an antidote.

 

Or never even existed for others, depending on location of course.

Indeed, as all weather is local. I don’t think anyone would claim the drought is/was worldwide. 

That is a cold September chart from the GFS Op
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_171_48.png

ECM makes more of Monday's N-ly, pushing a large amount of cold air S-wards to generate LP over France Wed 28th (note difference from WX) with NE-lies for Britain before bringing back HP block to the W of Britain Fri 30th with little sign of W-lies

This evening's BBC going with a chart looking very much like the ECM 0z from this morning - but then hedging their bets by saying we might get the W-lies shown in the GFS Op for the end of next week after all.

WX Temp outlook as yesterday  while generally cold air continues to occupy Europe (and some notably cold patches over Norway), week 2 now shows a resurgence of warmth from the SW to affect Spain, W France and S England. Rain as yesterday for week 1 i.e. concentrated but not exclusively in N & S of Europe, but in week 2 the dry area is further N, across S England to Germany while France is wet as is N Atlantic, and NE Spain really wet.

GFS - current HP moving E leaving Britain in shallow trough between it and new HP on Atlantic, hence N-lies but not as strong as forecast earlier. Atlantic Hp holds out for a few days but retreats to SW allowing LP to develop in N Sea 995 mb Wed 28th with NW-lies; this splits into two, half to Baltic and half to Spain while ridge of HP builds across Britain Sun 2nd. In final chart Fri 7th this is being pushed away by dartboard low 960mb S of Iceland. Two hurricanes are shown, Fiona being very deep in Gulf of St Lawrence Sun 25th, then a successor (Hermine?) on almost the same track but not so deep Wed 5th, not affecting Britain except in a general way by injecting energy into the N Atlantic.

ECM like GFS to Wed 28th, but LP is shallower and then retreats N-wards, with just the suspicion of a shallow trough affecting Spain, after which a regular W-ly regime applies with LP between Iceland and Scotland. Fiona as above, but the second hurricane is much deeper than for GFS and closer to New England.

GEFS - temps in S a little on the cool side until Sun 1st, then a little on the warm side. Rain on and off in most runs, the WX prediction above is only based on the Op. Temps in N definitely cooler to the 1st but with a one-day warm interruption on 26th, some quite heavy rain in the NW.

 

September 19/20th 1919

NOAA_1_1919092018_1.png (959×770) (wetterzentrale.de)

From Trevor Harley: "There was even snow cover on low ground from northern England north and on higher ground in Wales and the southwest as well as high ground in the Midlands on the night of the 19-20th. The snow was 2" deep at Princetown in Dartmoor. Snow cover lasted on Snowdon for a week. This is probably the earliest snowfall date."

 

My grandmother was born on 19/9/1919 so I remember hearing about that cold snap!

Quite a chilly end to September on the cards, even a touch of ground frost I'd imagine in rural spots. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=311&y=102&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=0

I'm sure I remember there being snow on Dartmoor and the Brecon Beacons in September during the early 90s.

Was with a walking group in Lake District first week of September 1997 (it was week that Princess Diana died) and we got caught in a snow squall, only settled for about 10 minutes.

Only time I have experienced snow in England in first few days of September, so it falling late September doesn’t seem a silly idea (if rare)

Quite a notable cold plunge for late September on this evening's GFS. Some northern areas may actually struggle to get above 10°C around midweek next week, especially with cloud and rain in the mix. 

Briefly - I have to go out;

Temps week 1 seasonally cool across N Europe, even N Spain, continuing week 2 with cold spots in Norway and a little warmth W France. Cold blast from N next week not lasting long enough to have major effect on this average. Rain generally week 1, week 2 v dry for Britain (also Aegean) rain in most other places.

GFS Op current Hp declines, new HPs in Atlantic and W Russia, shallow trough over Britain at first but deep Lp from N moving to E Scotland 985mb next Wed 28th with N-lies, soon filling and moving NE. New ridge of HP for Britain from SW, becoming centred Irish Sea Wed 5th

ECM similar to GFS though LP on 28th hangs on a day or two longer

GEFS cool to Sun 2nd the near norm with uncertainty at that stage; rain moving S over next day or two, then the op run shows little rain but some big totals in other runs esp after Sun 2nd

WX temps now seasonably cool across W Europe (I shall have to start calling this 'mild' soon) and any real warmth now in Med. In week 2 esp some early freezing near the Urals. Rainfall pattern changing again; in week 1 from Norway down to Italy and all points W including Britain; in week 2 a bit further N, from Norway to Rumania but again all points W and a rather heavy centred on Britain. Nil desperandum - yesterday Britain was shown as very dry in week 2!

GFS Op - Britain under shallow trough while new HP sets up in mid-Atlantic, strong enough for fine weather until Mon 26th, then a series of LPs bringing cool/cold and wet from the N or NW; Wed 28th 990 mb N Sea, Sat 1st 975mb E Anglia, Mon 3rd 965mb Hebrides (some nasty local storm force winds with this one), hanging around and eventually  becoming 995mb Sat 8th Wales before moving N again.

GEFS - in the S cool to Fri 30th, then mean a little above norm held there by a majority of ens members but op and control and some others cool; rain now and from 30th onwards, frequent and sometimes heavy esp in SW. Scotland similar though missing out on current rainfall, and rain in  the NE while frequent is not heavy

ECM - the Atlantic HP hangs on for longer so LP Wed 28th is further off, in S Norway, but to compensate that on Sat 1st is deeper and further S, 965mb N Ireland. However the weather then settles down into a westerly pattern rather than northerly

Looking at the models as I put together my end-of-week farmers forecast for my FB page and where did all that come from?! Low pressure firmly in charge over the UK by the following weekend after a week of northerlies, a very Autumnal outlook when I was hoping for a continuation of the recent benign mild conditions. 

And so it begins.