Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger

I can see a 14.0C coming out of the likes of the next two weeks.

So far it's not really been a month that feels like it deserves a record (or near record). Around here it's been quite dull so far and I don't think I've had anything over 16C yet.

I recognise we're only 8 days into it, but I feel a month that would deserve it would be an 1989 or 2018-style May.

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman

Met Office Hadley        12.4c       Anomaly     2.4c  provisional to 8th

Metcheck                     11.68c     Anomaly    0.28c

Netweather                  12.36c     Anomaly    1.06c

Peasedown St John     12.36c     Anomaly    0.76c. 

I think its up from here for the whole of the next 2 weeks.

Guessing we'll be on 14.5C after the next 2 weeks.

Met Office Hadley      12.7c      Anomaly     2.6c provisional to 10th

Metcheck                   12.32c    Anomaly     0.31c

Netweather                12.86c    Anomaly     1.56c

Peasedown St John    13.05c    Anomaly    1.45c.

Edited by user 11 May 2022 09:53:04(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Originally Posted by: Snowshoe

I'm not sure if this has been discussed anywhere, but the Met Office have now bought out their new version of CET. (v2.0.0.0)

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/index.html

This mainly seems to affect the post 1974 values, with most months changing by 0.1°C or so.

Here's my quick comparison showing 10 year moving averages

https://imgur.com/yr64CLX

They also seem to be showing the finalised data throughout the month on the new system instead of just at month-end unless I am mistaken

provisional

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2022

finalised

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/cet_mean_2022.txt

Originally Posted by: springsunshine

 

Could you excplain,to a layman like me,what these numbers represent in the Hadley charts above?

In both charts the numbers down the left are the days of the month and the 12 columns are the months of the year

anything like 999.9, 99.9 or 32768 is filler meaning there is no data (yet)

Row 1 is the anomaly for the whole month pr month-to-date (x10 on the provisional)

Row 2 is the average for the whole month or month to date (x10 on the provisional)

other rows are the mean CET for the month or month to date (x10 on the provisional)

There are 2 other sets for CET max and CET min on the same basis

simples, yes ?

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger

As I alluded to earlier the warmest May on record was 15.1C in 1833.

The next warmest was more than 1C lower with 13.9C in 1848.

So if we get a 14C plus it will be the second warmest May on record.

Surprised to see a gap of 1.2C between the warmest and second warmest.

 

14c looks very doable atm. Feels like a fairly unremarkable month so far so strange it could be the warmest in a 190 years. 

To look at 2 previous very warm Mays, 1992 was mostly average to cool for the first ten days or so while May 2008 was record breaking for the first fortnight but pretty unremarkable thereafter . The late BH was pretty dire in fact.

So if we somehow had a May which replicated 2008 for the first ten or so days then 1992 later then 14-15C and beyond would be achievable..

This year has a long way to go and the progged heat gets pushed back and downgraded seemingly every run but still expect I've gone way too low

Met Office Hadley      12.08c      Anomaly       2.3c provisional to 13th

Metcheck                   12.31c      Anomaly       0.91c

Peasedown St John   12.69c    Anomaly     1.1c.     

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman

Met Office Hadley       12.9c       Anomaly      2.4c provisional to14th

Metcheck                    12.57c     Anomaly      1.6c

Netweather                 12.99c     Anomaly      1.7c

Peasedown St John      12.9c      Anomaly     1.3c.  

The new CET 2.0.0.0 database went live at the start of May I believe

Instead of waitng with bated breath to see the end of month adjustment on the finalised values on 1st of the following month, it would seem that the finalised data is coming in every day on the new system (albeit still a few hours later than the provisional daily update)

as in

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/cet_mean_2022.txt

This month to the 14th for instance is showing 12.7 rather than the 12.9 above

Should our daily update on here courtesy of ARTzeman use this file instead ??

Edited by user 15 May 2022 14:41:52(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Met Office Hadley        13.1C       Anomaly      2.6c provisional to 16th

Metcheck                     12.86c   Anomaly      1.46c

Netweather                  13.29c   Anomaly       2.0c

Peasedown St John      13.2c      Anomaly      1.6c.   

Edited by moderator 17 May 2022 13:40:00(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified