Most of Europe comfortably warm week 1 though cool in N Russia & some mountain areas and hot in the W Med, according to WX summary charts. Hotting up in week 2 esp Sain and France and spilling over into S England, though if anything N Scotland and Norwegian coast cooling. Dry in the Med and E Baltic week 1, then dry across S Ireland through the Channel week 2; rain quite heavy elsewhere week 1, but fragmentary in week 2.
Jet running weakly (mostly) to N of Scotland to Thu 7th except for a brief period around Mon 27th when Britain is the centre of a loop..
GFS Op - HP nosing in from the W this week but general collapse of pressure on Fri, driven by extension of trough from the N, to arrive at LP centred E Anglia 1005mb Sun 26th. This retreats N-wards, intensifying for a while, but displaced by Azores HP covering the S Thu 30th and growing to cover the whole country by Tue 5th albeit with hints of LP over France affecting the S Coast EDIT That was the 0z but see posts below re downgrade on the 06z output - the LP is still hanging around on Tue 5th and indeed has quite a deep centre over Cornwall on Sun 3rd
GEFS - warm to Sat 25th, cool to Thu 30th, mean temp then near norm but op & control suggesting very warm in S/SW less marked in Scotland. Rain in a variety of ens members from time to time after Sat 25th, heaviest/most likely early on and always more likely in the N
ECM - the LP on Sun 26th is instead placed 995 mb Irish Sea and fills in situ rather than retreating. Hp then grows more slowly than shown on GFS and is only just beginning to move in from SW end-of-run Fri 1st, and looking cooler with winds from NW
Edited by user
Tuesday, June 21, 2022 11:51:12 AM
| Reason: Not specified