moomin75
Tuesday, June 21, 2022 6:09:19 AM

Originally Posted by: SJV 

GFS 00z looking positive this morning with the less settled blip giving way to a renewed push of high pressure from the south and west by midweek, with rising temperatures. The trough lifts north and west, a signal that ties in line with longer range forecasts.

Pleasing to see such a mainstream model go for this outlook.

The settled stuff is way out in FI, but if that becomes the trend, it's pleasing to see.

Needs watching. Before then though, a good week or so of unsettled cool weather is nailed on.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Tim A
Tuesday, June 21, 2022 6:33:48 AM

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

 

The settled stuff is way out in FI, but if that becomes the trend, it's pleasing to see.

Needs watching. Before then though, a good week or so of unsettled cool weather is nailed on.

I know you like your cricket Moomin, the Headingley test could be quite a washout , GFS predicts 40mm of rain to the end of Monday.  I am going on Friday and perhaps we will get away with a few showers later in the day and reasonable temps but the weekend could be poor. 

 

Hopefully just a blip and warmer and dryer weather to build back from next week. 


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl



moomin75
Tuesday, June 21, 2022 6:39:56 AM

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

 

I know you like your cricket Moomin, the Headingley test could be quite a washout , GFS predicts 40mm of rain to the end of Monday.  I am going on Friday and perhaps we will get away with a few showers later in the day and reasonable temps but the weekend could be poor. 

 

Hopefully just a blip and warmer and dryer weather to build back from next week. 

Yes, looking like the weekend will be pretty dreadful.

Thankfully, I'm working this weekend, so I don't miss playing cricket, as I wasn't able to play anyway....so as far as I'm concerned it can rain all it likes....

Hoping the trend towards higher pressure in July continues..I fear it won't, but keeping my fingers crossed.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
Tuesday, June 21, 2022 7:07:50 AM

Most of Europe comfortably warm week 1 though cool in N Russia & some mountain areas and hot in the W Med, according to WX summary charts. Hotting up in week 2 esp Sain and France and spilling over into S England, though if anything N Scotland and Norwegian coast cooling. Dry in the Med and E Baltic week 1, then dry across S Ireland through the Channel week 2; rain quite heavy elsewhere week 1, but fragmentary in week 2.

Jet running weakly (mostly) to N of Scotland to Thu 7th except for a brief period around Mon 27th when Britain is the centre of a loop..

GFS Op - HP nosing in from the W this week but general collapse of pressure on Fri, driven by extension of trough from the N, to arrive at LP centred E Anglia 1005mb Sun 26th. This retreats N-wards, intensifying for a while, but displaced by Azores HP covering the S Thu 30th  and growing to cover the whole country by Tue 5th albeit with hints of LP over France affecting the S Coast EDIT That was the 0z but see posts below re downgrade on the 06z output - the LP is still hanging around on Tue 5th and indeed has quite a deep centre over Cornwall on Sun 3rd

GEFS - warm to Sat 25th, cool to Thu 30th, mean temp then near norm but op & control suggesting very warm in S/SW less marked in Scotland. Rain in a variety of ens members from time to time after Sat 25th, heaviest/most likely  early on and always more likely in the N

ECM - the LP on Sun 26th is instead placed 995 mb Irish Sea and fills in situ rather than retreating. Hp then grows more slowly than shown on GFS and is only just beginning to move in from SW end-of-run Fri 1st, and looking cooler with winds from NW


"Quick zephyrs blow, vexing daft Jim" - another weather pangram
moomin75
Tuesday, June 21, 2022 11:01:29 AM

Good lord, hoping the 6z GFS is wrong.
It keeps the trough sitting slap bang over the UK for the entire run on this 6z, just circulating around Blighty throughout, bringing copious rainfall and no sign of the Azore High getting a look in.

Not great for high summer at all. Rain every day from Friday to the end of the run.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Taylor1740
Tuesday, June 21, 2022 11:08:19 AM

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Good lord, hoping the 6z GFS is wrong.
It keeps the trough sitting slap bang over the UK for the entire run on this 6z, just circulating around Blighty throughout, bringing copious rainfall and no sign of the Azore High getting a look in.

Not great for high summer at all. Rain every day from Friday to the end of the run.

Yes, make the most of the next 2 days I think as it looks like Summer is going downhill after that.


NW Leeds - 150m amsl
moomin75
Tuesday, June 21, 2022 11:25:54 AM

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

 

Yes, make the most of the next 2 days I think as it looks like Summer is going downhill after that.

If the 6z verifies, I envisage Wimbledon will run into a third week, despite the roof on centre court and court 1.

It's gonna pour down for a long time!


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Brian Gaze
Tuesday, June 21, 2022 11:29:56 AM
UKV 03z going for a dry Saturday in much of the UK.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx?run=03&charthour=108&chartname=rain_rate&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip%20+%20cloud 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Saint Snow
Tuesday, June 21, 2022 12:46:45 PM

Recent GFS runs have been poor in the mid-term (and mostly no better in FI)

 


Martin

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Downpour
Tuesday, June 21, 2022 1:39:27 PM

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

UKV 03z going for a dry Saturday in much of the UK.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx?run=03&charthour=108&chartname=rain_rate&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip%20+%20cloud

 

Indeed, and for 95%+ of its population. That chart won't please some members, who assured us that a wet weekend was "nailed on". 

Still a lot to resolve at this range. 


Chingford

London E4

147ft

moomin75
Tuesday, June 21, 2022 2:11:19 PM

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

 

 

Indeed, and for 95%+ of its population. That chart won't please some members, who assured us that a wet weekend was "nailed on". 

Still a lot to resolve at this range. 

I am pretty sure a wet weekend for many is nailed on.

I will pin my colours to the mast. If I'm wrong, I am here to be shot at. 🤣


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

CreweCold
Tuesday, June 21, 2022 2:33:28 PM

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

UKV 03z going for a dry Saturday in much of the UK.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx?run=03&charthour=108&chartname=rain_rate&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip%20+%20cloud

Looks like it’s forecasting (thundery) showers to me. Isn’t the UKV notorious for underplaying the extent of showers at that range?


Crewe, Cheshire

55 metres above sea level

doctormog
Tuesday, June 21, 2022 4:25:56 PM
The 12z GFS op run continues the rather dry theme here over the next 7 days with a total of 2mm of rain forecast along with temperatures around or above average throughout.
moomin75
Tuesday, June 21, 2022 5:22:37 PM

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

The 12z GFS op run continues the rather dry theme here over the next 7 days with a total of 2mm of rain forecast along with temperatures around or above average throughout.

And in another world, the GFZ 12Z op run continues to show an increasingly long cool and very unsettled spell with rain or showers every day for the entirety of the run.

This has gathered pace and is supported by all the other major models.

The next 2 weeks (at least) looking very poor from a summer perspective.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
Tuesday, June 21, 2022 5:26:53 PM

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I am pretty sure a wet weekend for many is nailed on.

I will pin my colours to the mast. If I'm wrong, I am here to be shot at. 🤣


Trivial amounts expected here, I am cutting grass for hay - though it won't bale until after the weekend.
They have been talking up rain for weeks and hardly been anything, just 13mm this month.


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