SJV
  • SJV
  • Advanced Member
20 June 2022 18:12:46

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Maybe a week.

My hunch is a couple of weeks at least. Maybe an improvement by 2nd week of July if the AMO does go positive as has been suggested, but a pretty wet spell coming up.

I remember when the first half of June was looking cool and unsettled. Several members here then moistened their crumpets by humourously entertaining the prospect of 30°C not being achieved through the entirety of summer.

These blind guesses, because that's what they are, offer nothing. I regrettably include myself in that, though I didn't post it on here. I attempted a June prediction for my page based on a number of credible sources, the models, MJO etc and rainfall has been far less than I expected for here and temperatures higher as well (I went for slightly below rainfall and slightly above temperatures for Sheffield, FYI).

An unsettled weekend followed by the usual scatter amongst the output for next week and hit and miss low-res precipitation does not particularly scream 'pretty wet', not does this pattern (one that hasn't started yet), look set to last two weeks. Hunches shouldn't belong in this thread.

I really think some folk need to just take a few moments before jumping on the pessimist wagon and declaring washouts left, right and centre. There's more nuance in the outlook than that.

 

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

Yes the GFS in particular which I believe to be the most reliable long range model has been showing this quite consistently and is supported by the GEFS into early July. It certainly feels like more obscure models are being used by some to suggest it is going to be very hot and settled though when that isn't supported by the majority of the more mainstream models.

 

I accept it has been a mostly pleasant June but just commenting that the outlook now isn't looking great for late June into July.

 

It's far from a reliable long range model (is it even a long range model?)

Those using obscure models are actually using shorter range, higher resolution models to show the developing heat this week.

You were one of those going for an unsettled June (no surprises there). 


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Downpour
20 June 2022 18:16:17

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I have a hope that mid July onwards will bring us something more akin to summer, and not just quick blink and miss it snaps.

 

Like what we have currently you mean? June has been mostly sunny, sometimes hot, sometimes unbearably hot, but largely pleasant. We’ve had some rain for the plants which was much needed.

I stand by my view that some members seem to believe that Oxfordshire should have the climate of Marbella; Leeds that of Antibes. 


Chingford

London E4

147ft

Downpour
20 June 2022 18:20:06

Originally Posted by: SJV 

 

I remember when the first half of June was looking cool and unsettled. Several members here then moistened their crumpets by humourously entertaining the prospect of 30°C not being achieved through the entirety of summer.

These blind guesses, because that's what they are, offer nothing. I include myself in that. I attempted a June prediction for my page based on a number of credible sources, the models, MJO etc and rainfall has been far less than I expected for here and temperatures higher as well (I went for slightly below rainfall and slightly above temperatures for Sheffield, FYI).

An unsettled weekend followed by the usual scatter amongst the output for next week and hit and miss low-res precipitation does not particularly scream 'pretty wet', not does this pattern (one that hasn't started yet), look set to last two weeks. Hunches shouldn't belong in this thread.

I really think some folk need to just take a few moments before jumping on the pessimist wagon and declaring washouts left, right and centre. There's more nuance in the outlook than that.

 

 

It's far from a reliable long range model (is it even a long range model?)

Those using obscure models are actually using shorter range, higher resolution models to show the developing heat this week.

You were one of those going for an unsettled June (no surprises there). 

indeed. Laughably the “no 30c” posts were followed by, er, 32c not a week later as I recall. Quite risible stuff.

some of it can be entertaining if one knows how to filter it, but for newcomers or occasional visitors it’s deeply misleading and is usually the metier of two or three individuals who seem to luxuriate in spreading misery. 


Chingford

London E4

147ft

doctormog
20 June 2022 18:22:28

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

 

Yes the GFS in particular which I believe to be the most reliable long range model has been showing this quite consistently and is supported by the GEFS into early July. It certainly feels like more obscure models are being used by some to suggest it is going to be very hot and settled though when that isn't supported by the majority of the more mainstream models.

I accept it has been a mostly pleasant June but just commenting that the outlook now isn't looking great for late June into July.

Out of curiosity which “obscure” models have people used?


ballamar
20 June 2022 18:37:50

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

 

Out of curiosity which “obscure” models have people used?

can’t wait for the answer to this 😂

johncs2016
20 June 2022 19:01:05
Going by some of the comments on here, you would think that summer was about to come to an end by this coming weekend once any unsettled weather moves in.

In a way, it wouldn't actually surprise me if that then ended up being "it" for our "summer" because that sort of thing has happened before on numerous occasions.

However, I just don't really see it actually playing out that way. We are after all, just three weeks into this summer and the astronomical summer doesn't even start until tomorrow (that will be the day of the summer solstice).

There is therefore, a very long way to go and I wouldn't exactly be writing off the rest of this summer just yet.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
20 June 2022 19:35:50

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

 

Like what we have currently you mean? June has been mostly sunny, sometimes hot, sometimes unbearably hot, but largely pleasant. We’ve had some rain for the plants which was much needed.

I stand by my view that some members seem to believe that Oxfordshire should have the climate of Marbella; Leeds that of Antibes. 

Yes June has been decent so far. Importantly it’s been quite sunny. Despite the cold nights early in the month that’s made it feel more summery than some other statistically warmer but  duller Junes.

I would say sun and temperature are equally important until the daily max is above 22C and min above 10C, beyond which sunshine is significantly more important to summeriness than temperature.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Taylor1740
20 June 2022 19:45:29

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

 

Out of curiosity which “obscure” models have people used?

Well the Aggrepe model and UKV have been getting a lot of attention recently, take last week's heat spike, they were well wide of the mark showing 36/37c in the run up when GFS called it right with a more sensible 32c. 


NW Leeds - 150m amsl
doctormog
20 June 2022 20:03:05

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

 

Well the Aggrepe model and UKV have been getting a lot of attention recently, take last week's heat spike, they were well wide of the mark showing 36/37c in the run up when GFS called it right with a more sensible 32c. 

It was very hot and although the ARPEGE model did and often does overestimate the temperatures, I would not call it (ARPEGE) and certainly not the UKV obscure models. I suspect that the Met Office may disagree with that description, especially in the case of the latter model. Additionally neither model showed prolonged very hot conditions as far as I am aware?

I think at short notice it is right that the higher resolution short range models get attention? In the longer term the ECMFWF, UKMO, GFS and GEM (probably in that order) should be looked at. They currently show a warm week followed by more unsettled weather from day 4/5. Let’s keep an eye on that as it may (or may not) change given the timescale.


Polar Low
20 June 2022 20:36:09

Your very patient Michael 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

 

It was very hot and although the ARPEGE model did and often does overestimate the temperatures, I would not call it (ARPEGE) and certainly not the UKV obscure models. I suspect that the Met Office may disagree with that description, especially in the case of the latter model. Additionally neither model showed prolonged very hot conditions as far as I am aware?

I think at short notice it is right that the higher resolution short range models get attention? In the longer term the ECMFWF, UKMO, GFS and GEM (probably in that order) should be looked at. They currently show a warm week followed by more unsettled weather from day 4/5. Let’s keep an eye on that as it may (or may not) change given the timescale.

Polar Low
20 June 2022 20:37:44

👍


Originally Posted by: SJV 

 

I remember when the first half of June was looking cool and unsettled. Several members here then moistened their crumpets by humourously entertaining the prospect of 30°C not being achieved through the entirety of summer.

These blind guesses, because that's what they are, offer nothing. I regrettably include myself in that, though I didn't post it on here. I attempted a June prediction for my page based on a number of credible sources, the models, MJO etc and rainfall has been far less than I expected for here and temperatures higher as well (I went for slightly below rainfall and slightly above temperatures for Sheffield, FYI).

An unsettled weekend followed by the usual scatter amongst the output for next week and hit and miss low-res precipitation does not particularly scream 'pretty wet', not does this pattern (one that hasn't started yet), look set to last two weeks. Hunches shouldn't belong in this thread.

I really think some folk need to just take a few moments before jumping on the pessimist wagon and declaring washouts left, right and centre. There's more nuance in the outlook than that.

 

 

It's far from a reliable long range model (is it even a long range model?)

Those using obscure models are actually using shorter range, higher resolution models to show the developing heat this week.

You were one of those going for an unsettled June (no surprises there). 

Brian Gaze
20 June 2022 21:18:01

ECM ENS 12z not without interest for hot weather fans.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Downpour
20 June 2022 22:05:11
Arpege is the French government’s own weather model isn’t it? Hardly an ‘obscure’ model as you claim.

(Arpege is also a three Michelin starred restaurant in Paris, not sure humble pie is on the menu)


Chingford

London E4

147ft

Gandalf The White
20 June 2022 22:42:21

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

 

It was very hot and although the ARPEGE model did and often does overestimate the temperatures, I would not call it (ARPEGE) and certainly not the UKV obscure models. I suspect that the Met Office may disagree with that description, especially in the case of the latter model. Additionally neither model showed prolonged very hot conditions as far as I am aware?

I think at short notice it is right that the higher resolution short range models get attention? In the longer term the ECMFWF, UKMO, GFS and GEM (probably in that order) should be looked at. They currently show a warm week followed by more unsettled weather from day 4/5. Let’s keep an eye on that as it may (or may not) change given the timescale.

Obviously my English is slipping, because I can’t find any way of getting from ‘High Res’ to ‘Obscure’.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



SJV
  • SJV
  • Advanced Member
21 June 2022 05:31:09
GFS 00z looking positive this morning with the less settled blip giving way to a renewed push of high pressure from the south and west by midweek, with rising temperatures. The trough lifts north and west, a signal that ties in line with longer range forecasts.

Pleasing to see such a mainstream model go for this outlook.


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