BBC 1.30 lunchtime bulletin just said they had got it wrong today for East Anglia.

Really?  That's interesting as the forecast last night said the front could take until the afternoon to move away.

Anyway, I thought we'd got past using anecdotes to support an argument.

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Really?  That's interesting as the forecast last night said the front could take until the afternoon to move away.

Anyway, I thought we'd got past using anecdotes to support an argument.

we’d?

You said!

 

we’d?

You said!

I'll just stick with the verification stats and the evidence, if that's OK with you.

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I'll just stick with the verification stats and the evidence, if that's OK with you.

...and one’s opinion thrown in of course 🧐 😉

...and one’s opinion thrown in of course 🧐 😉

No, just the evidence for me, thanka.

But I'm very happy for you to have whatever opinion takes your fancy.

😉

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No, just the evidence for me, thanka.

But I'm very happy for you to have whatever opinion takes your fancy.

😉

evidence based on what you know, or ‘think’... there is a big difference, mr thanka.

 

Come on you two, stop bickering, I come on here because I appreciate everyone's points of view, be they fact based, or otherwise.

It's too early in the season to be ripping each other to bits

 

So.......    what is this low going to bring for the week ahead?   

I've put this summary in the MO thread for continuity and because it looks beyond the weekend but there is a dedicated thread for detailed posts on this weekend's storm.

GFS - deceptively weak area of LP tomorrow (Thu 1st) deepens quickly over the weekend (deepest 980mb Biscay on Sat 3rd but returns to the UK 985 mb Mon 5th before filling) . Another area of LP in N Sea 990 mb by Fri 9th before anticyclone moves across , at its peak Tue 13th (a development not seen previously) before another deep LP from the SW 980mb in SW Approaches Fri 16th.

FAX places the weekend LP further N, in the Channel 975mb Fri 2nd, brief excursion over France & Germany before returning to E Anglia 978mb Sun 4th

ECM - similar over the weekend 980mb Brittany Fri 2nd (very notable pressure gradient) and back in the UK Sun 4th (same central pressure but over larger area) Early indications after that are for W-lies with pressure generally low close to N of UK

GEFS - temps above and below norm by turns in near future (BBC keeps them generally below), then close to norm through to Fri 16th, suggestions of cooler around Sun 11th before recovering. Plenty of rain especially from today to Mon 5th but continuing on and off therafter (not much sign of the HP noted under the GFS heading).

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Been a long time since I've seen so many southerly track lows potentially forcast.....hope it keeps up these patterns

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We've been down this track many times in recent years.  Interesting synoptics appear in the autumn but as winter sets in the profile across the North Atlantic pancakes and it's game over. At the moment there is no reason to think this year will be different.*

*of course someone will come up with a reason to explain why this year it REALLY is different

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If the Atlantic stays weak and the PV can clear off we have an outside chance , trouble is they are just 2 of the 1,000 factors that have a say on our tiny island 

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Hey Gooner,

Your In-Box is full. 

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Certainly quite a wet picture across the far south over the coming days, over 100mm of rainfall by the end of the weekend around the Solent.

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We've been down this track many times in recent years.  Interesting synoptics appear in the autumn but as winter sets in the profile across the North Atlantic pancakes and it's game over. At the moment there is no reason to think this year will be different.*

*of course someone will come up with a reason to explain why this year it REALLY is different

A sensible post

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16-dayer:: Contrast between W Europe (cool and wet) and E Europe (warm and dry) maintained for the full two weeks. Boundary roughly a line running from Greece to Finland.

Fax shows most detail for the near future (but see discussion now warming up on the Storm 1st/5th Oct thread); 995mb E Scotland today, 971mb Brittany Fri, 986mb Belgium Sat, 974mb Kent Sun, 987mb Yorkshire Mon, with fronts moving up from the S at first, later in from the E and returning S. Obviously a lot of rain and wind.

GFS keeps the current LP centre a bit further W i.e. over central England until Mon 5th after which filling. New storm to W of Scotland Thu 8th 970mb, moving to Shetland and then filling N Sea Sun 11th; its remnants then track down to Biscay while ridge of HP extends W-E across Scotland Wed 14tth. The remnants are revived in association with more LP on the Atlantic generating S-ly winds for all Sat 17th. Not much related to yesterday's forecast so low confidence.

GEFS temps dipping from seasonal average to cool around Sun 11th and rising (with a lot of variations) again by Sat 17th with mean of runs back to norm. Much rain Thu 1st - Mon 5th (3rd - 5th in N England and Scotland) and intermittently thereafter

ECM agrees with GFS  re current storm but dramatically different by Thu 8th with HP over Atlantic -no trace of a storm, just slack LP continuing over an area from UK to Norway and this persisting to Sun 11th 

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Quite  nasty looking 

Very unsettled

Another LP to the North later on in the 0z 

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Definite signs of a calmdown mid October how it evolves will be interesting....wouldnt be suprised to see 20-22 degrees Celsius in the south again.....

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Jetstream: Cut-off low affecting Uk breaks up by Tue 6th in favour of a more conventional W-E flow to S of UK. Another broader loop develops Fri 9th and splits off another cut-off, this time over Spain,  Mon 12th. It remains erratic for that week but by Fri 16th has split into two, one stream N of UK (which may in the end come down the N Sea) and one to the S.

GFS - different to yesterday and more like yesterday's ECM - current Lp drifts to N of Scotland, filling Wed 7th, before returning as a shallow low passing the UK on its way to Spain arriving Mon 12th and dragging N-lies behind it. Ridge of HP over mid-Atlantic transfers to lie across Scotland Thu 15th and just about survives to Sun 18th despite LP to W & S.

GEFS - temps drop off from seasonal norm now to a cool spell around Sun 11th as yesterday, back to norm at end of forecast Sun 18th. Rain now (Sun 4th in Scotland), and many runs with rain on and off throughout  (drier in Scotland) The op run is one that is mainly dry matching the headline GFS above but generally little agreement after Tue 13th.

ECM - similar to GFS but the shallow low in GFS does not appear as a defined feature, just generally low pressure from Scotland across to Norway, displaced by the ridge of HP as above

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The GEFS pressure charts show a definite and steady rise after the weekend so high pressure is increasingly likely to dominate the mid month period. As mentioned above, where it sits will influence the nature of our weather. Currently there is a good chance of it staying quite cool and autumnal, especially if we're directly under the anticyclone.

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The GEFS pressure charts show a definite and steady rise after the weekend so high pressure is increasingly likely to dominate the mid month period. As mentioned above, where it sits will influence the nature of our weather. Currently there is a good chance of it staying quite cool and autumnal, especially if we're directly under the anticyclone.

Mind you, there is something on recent GFS runs that might put the spanner in the works with the latter part of next week to mind. I'm only being wary about it speaking as a survivor of the Great Gale of '87. Of course it is a long way off and other models aren't showing the same thing but I do find the GFS tend to be good at picking out such trends from afar.
  I do agree with you on the settling down by mid-October part, though.

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