Odd day today. I walked outside just now and it was properly hot, not as much as yesterday but nearly. But my closest station London City airport is showing just 27C. Just a very muggy and stuffy 27C.

Very different feel here today. Very grey and murky with a few spells of hazy sunshine. Temperatures struggling up to about 24C so far. It's the sort of day where if the skies cleared, the temperature could shoot up. 

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Odd day today. I walked outside just now and it was properly hot, not as much as yesterday but nearly. But my closest station London City airport is showing just 27C. Just a very muggy and stuffy 27C.

Max here 24.1C so far. If temps keep dropping at the same rate for the next 2 days we'll be looking at snow on Sunday. 

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Looks like some parts of Devon could be the hottest areas..
Exeter currently at 29c

 

 

What are you see that on? 

I only tend to use XC Weather (as I can easily remember it!) but is there a better site that lists the hottest current temps?

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1-7 July 1976 had a CET of 23.54C. That will take some beating! The last five days of June were all also above 22C!

The best spell of 2003, 4-10 August, comes in at a 'mere' 22.3C.

2006 had a seven day spell averaging 21.9C.

The provisional for the last seven days is 21.7, this could be too low though and time to improve on last Thursday's figure today given the warm nights.

 

I think that reflects how more widespread some of those previous hot spells were. We're only a bit more than halfway up England, but the temps took until yesterday to hit 30c and during that Friday-Monday period, were maxing at 23/24c and dropping to mid-teens overnight. 

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So, was this heatwave "the one"? No I don't think so. Not yet.

I'd been thinking over the last 3 or 4 years that sooner or later we would have a heatwave in the UK that is extreme both in severity and duration. Not just because of some statistical supposition based on climate change and the shifting of the bell curve, but because the models have shown a number of such events, at least once or twice per summer and across multiple runs not just one freakish ensemble perturbation.

Compared with some runs even earlier this summer, this heatwave while certainly unusually hot fell quite a long way short. I think that is reflected in the fact that we still didn't get to anything like the duration or countrywide nature of the heat of July 1976 or for that matter August 2003 (let alone the month long heat of 1976, 2006, 1995, 1997).

2018 was not the one either. It was persistently very dry and sunny, and pretty warm/hot, but without any real sustained period of major heatwave. There were some runs in late July 2018 which if they'd come to fruition would have sent that summer squarely into the record books with a very hot August, but they never came to pass. Instead it got cooler and wetter.

Areas where August 2020 fell short in terms of synoptics / airmass:

- Pressure was never that high meaning there was always a lot of cloud around
- the source airmass, while hot, was nowhere near as hot as in say June or July last year. France's canicule this year was decent but nothing special. We spent several days in 850s of upper teens, which is enough for very hot weather, but I have seen many runs taking us to 21 or 22C and staying there for a few days
- on most days the hot air never made it that far into the UK. Contrast with 2018 when the hottest place was Porthmadog 3 days in a row. This was largely an event of the far South East
- it wasn't combined with a long standing drought

Either those runs that occasionally turn up on the models are just makebelieve, or "the one" will happen at some point in the next decade. This feels like it was a warm up.

Still, it is great finally to get some proper hot weather in August. It's been so long, August has become a real anomaly among months.

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So, was this heatwave "the one"? No I don't think so. Not yet.

I'd been thinking over the last 3 or 4 years that sooner or later we would have a heatwave in the UK that is extreme both in severity and duration. Not just because of some statistical supposition based on climate change and the shifting of the bell curve, but because the models have shown a number of such events, at least once or twice per summer and across multiple runs not just one freakish ensemble perturbation.

Compared with some runs even earlier this summer, this heatwave while certainly unusually hot fell quite a long way short. I think that is reflected in the fact that we still didn't get to anything like the duration or countrywide nature of the heat of July 1976 or for that matter August 2003 (let alone the month long heat of 1976, 2006, 1995, 1997).

2018 was not the one either. It was persistently very dry and sunny, and pretty warm/hot, but without any real sustained period of major heatwave. There were some runs in late July 2018 which if they'd come to fruition would have sent that summer squarely into the record books with a very hot August, but they never came to pass. Instead it got cooler and wetter.

Areas where August 2020 fell short in terms of synoptics / airmass:

- Pressure was never that high meaning there was always a lot of cloud around
- the source airmass, while hot, was nowhere near as hot as in say June or July last year. France's canicule this year was decent but nothing special. We spent several days in 850s of upper teens, which is enough for very hot weather, but I have seen many runs taking us to 21 or 22C and staying there for a few days
- on most days the hot air never made it that far into the UK. Contrast with 2018 when the hottest place was Porthmadog 3 days in a row. This was largely an event of the far South East
- it wasn't combined with a long standing drought

Either those runs that occasionally turn up on the models are just makebelieve, or "the one" will happen at some point in the next decade. This feels like it was a warm up.

Still, it is great finally to get some proper hot weather in August. It's been so long, August has become a real anomaly among months.

Excellent summary of this spell 

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So, was this heatwave "the one"? No I don't think so. Not yet.

I'd been thinking over the last 3 or 4 years that sooner or later we would have a heatwave in the UK that is extreme both in severity and duration. Not just because of some statistical supposition based on climate change and the shifting of the bell curve, but because the models have shown a number of such events, at least once or twice per summer and across multiple runs not just one freakish ensemble perturbation.

Compared with some runs even earlier this summer, this heatwave while certainly unusually hot fell quite a long way short. I think that is reflected in the fact that we still didn't get to anything like the duration or countrywide nature of the heat of July 1976 or for that matter August 2003 (let alone the month long heat of 1976, 2006, 1995, 1997).

2018 was not the one either. It was persistently very dry and sunny, and pretty warm/hot, but without any real sustained period of major heatwave. There were some runs in late July 2018 which if they'd come to fruition would have sent that summer squarely into the record books with a very hot August, but they never came to pass. Instead it got cooler and wetter.

Areas where August 2020 fell short in terms of synoptics / airmass:

- Pressure was never that high meaning there was always a lot of cloud around
- the source airmass, while hot, was nowhere near as hot as in say June or July last year. France's canicule this year was decent but nothing special. We spent several days in 850s of upper teens, which is enough for very hot weather, but I have seen many runs taking us to 21 or 22C and staying there for a few days
- on most days the hot air never made it that far into the UK. Contrast with 2018 when the hottest place was Porthmadog 3 days in a row. This was largely an event of the far South East
- it wasn't combined with a long standing drought

Either those runs that occasionally turn up on the models are just makebelieve, or "the one" will happen at some point in the next decade. This feels like it was a warm up.

Still, it is great finally to get some proper hot weather in August. It's been so long, August has become a real anomaly among months.

 

 

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A disappointing end to the heatwave as the models suggested that East Anglia could hang on to 30-31C heat today but it's been nowhere near. eg Norwich airport topped out at 24C.

I think a couple of official stations have made it to 28C, Exeter airport had 29C on a METAR too but seems nowhere will make it an eighth 30C day.

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I think a couple of official stations have made it to 28C, Exeter airport had 29C on a METAR too but seems nowhere will make it an eighth 30C day.

Today's highest temperature was 29.8°C in Porthmadog, Wales

https://twitter.com/metoffice

(So unless a manual one pops up, it was a case of close but not quite.)

 

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A disappointing end to the heatwave as the models suggested that East Anglia could hang on to 30-31C heat today but it's been nowhere near. eg Norwich airport topped out at 24C.

I think a couple of official stations have made it to 28C, Exeter airport had 29C on a METAR too but seems nowhere will make it an eighth 30C day.

The unexpected cloud cover had prevented anywhere to reach 30C  since we had warm night but gone wasted.  Don't know why it been so cloudy in between storms? should be clear skies like other counties does.   

Picking brains chaps.

How does this past 7 days CET wise rank with any of the hottest 7 day periods on record.

I.e. How does this compare with the likes of July 2006, August 2003, August 1995, June/July 1976.

This most recent one - it must be well up there give the fact we had so many nights over 20C and 21C.

 

I had a look at this both from the perspective of the maximum CET and the mean CET.

I have not done a full scrub of all the data as I don't have time. But taking a look at the obvious candidates for the warmest weekly periods I came up with the following.

The data does show a difference between maximum and mean temperatures. The maximum data for the CET area as a whole is nowhere near a record and well below 1995, 2003 and 2006. The high maximums were in the SE of England this past week.

However, the mean temperature is more comparable to previous heatwaves with only 1-7 Jul 1976 being substantially warmer.

Highest 7 day CET maximums

1-7 Jul 1976                  31.5C
29 Jul - 4 Aug 1995        29.6C
24-30 Jun 1976             29.2C
16-22 Jul 2006               29.1C
4-10 Aug 2003               28.8C
6-12 Aug 2020             28.3C

[8-14 Aug 1911               27.9C]

 

Highest 7 day CET means

1-7 Jul 1976                    23.5C
29 Jul - 4 Aug 1995         22.7C
5-11 Aug 2003                22.3C
6-12 Aug 2020               22.3C
17-23 Jul 2006                21.9C
24-30 Jun 1976               21.7C

[8-14 Aug 1911               21.1C]

The hottest 7 day spell at my location (Kew) was between Thursday 6th to Wednesday 12th August this week.

Comparing this to the daily record of the maximum temperature in the 5km Grid (1961-2018) supplied by the Met Office containing Kew shows that only 1 other 7 day period was hotter - and that being 6th to 12th August (by coincidence) 2003.

The 2003 spell came out at an average maximum of 33.7C compared to 33.3C for this week

However, the former is "spot" maximum temperature whereas the 2020 data I have is hourly maxima (I don't have the "Spot" data for Kew Gardens last week) so my guess is that the 2020 spell would probably  nudeg ahead as the hottest since 1961

shown below

 

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Porthmadog hottest yesterday, with 29.8c

 

West seems best again today for temps. The highest temp I can find is 23c at Blackpool, but various places on that west coast strip of NW England and Wales are up to 22c

 

I do love an easterly 

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Don't know if this will show, but here's the cloud cover satellite for midday today.

Have I said I do love a summer easterly?

 

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Don't know if this will show, but here's the cloud cover satellite for midday today.

Have I said I do love a summer easterly?

 

haha - Today has made me realise what Richard in Aberdeen has to endure

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Don't know if this will show, but here's the cloud cover satellite for midday today.

Have I said I do love a summer easterly?

 

Perfect example of how we can get cursed in such a setup. Clinging onto the hills even though Vale of York is clear.

Thankfully cleared now and sunny spells and pleasant  with a fresh breeze.

 

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Here are the stats for Heathrow for all the heatwaves since 1976. The last 7 days are comfortably the hottest on record at Heathrow over a 7 day period.

Highest 7 day heatwave mean maximum temperature at Heathrow 

2020 6-12 Aug       34.3C
2003 5-11 Aug       33.5C
1976 23-29 Jun      32.9C
1976 1-7 Jul           32.5C
2006 16-22 Jul       32.1C
1995 29 Jul-4 Aug   31.6C

Highest 7 day heatwave mean temperature at Heathrow

2020 7-13 Aug        26.8C
2003 5-11 Aug        26.3C
1976 23-29 Jun       25.6C
2006 16-22 Jul        25.3C
1976 1-7 Jul            25.1C
1995 29 Jul-4 Aug    24.9C

Mods shall we move to the classic forum.

Also, third hottest day thread also needs to go in.

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