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Online Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 28 June 2020 09:11:22(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,328

This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during July, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own back yard. 

For those taking part in the competition all CET predictions for June should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Do not post them directly into the thread. 

The first half of 2020 has been close to record breaking in terms of average temperature. What does the second half of the year hold for us?

Historic CET summary for July

1971-2000 16.5C (30 years) 

1981-2010 16.7C (30 years) 

2000-2019 16.8C (last 20 years)

The warmest July in recent times was 2018 with 19.1C. The coolest was 2011 with 15.2C. The July CET has not been below 15.2C since 1988. Record CET for July is 19.7C in 2006.

Here is a chart of the July CET for all years since 1961

Direct link to larger version of the chart

Current model output 

GFS 850s close to average but lots of scatter as early as 4 July. T2m below average initially and then generally close to average

GFS 850's https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

GFS T2m https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=

ECM also close to average in terms of the ENS mean. But several runs going for something a bit warmer from around 5/6 July.

ECM ENS T2m http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png

Met Office contingency planners outlook 

Not yet available

Edited by moderator 28 June 2020 14:03:27(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl

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Online ARTzeman  
#2 Posted : 28 June 2020 11:27:00(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Thank You, GW. Prediction is in. Let us hope we see the sun a lot.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Caz  
#3 Posted : 28 June 2020 11:50:55(UTC)
Caz

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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Mine’s in too!  June is behaving for me, so here’s hoping July will too because I really need to up my game!  I don’t want to spoil my record of finishing mid table!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline SJV  
#4 Posted : 30 June 2020 05:05:50(UTC)
SJV

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Location: Sheffield, 133m ASL

Prediction sent in. Thanks GW!
Follow/like Steel City Skies - Sheffield Weather Forecasting on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.
Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#5 Posted : 30 June 2020 10:04:18(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Very difficult as there is a very good chance of a significant heatwave in July in my view but not much sign of it yet.

 

Offline SJV  
#6 Posted : 30 June 2020 15:31:57(UTC)
SJV

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Location: Sheffield, 133m ASL

Yeah I get ya - after the UKMO extended update I'm worrying that I've been too conservative with my guess. We'll see I guess!
Follow/like Steel City Skies - Sheffield Weather Forecasting on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.
Offline Caz  
#7 Posted : 01 July 2020 05:52:56(UTC)
Caz

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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

Very difficult as there is a very good chance of a significant heatwave in July in my view but not much sign of it yet.

I always think the weather and output at month end, influences predictions the wrong way.  No sooner are predictions in, the output changes.  Will that be the case this month?  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Online TimS  
#8 Posted : 01 July 2020 08:23:53(UTC)
TimS

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Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 9,896
Location: Brockley

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

I always think the weather and output at month end, influences predictions the wrong way.  No sooner are predictions in, the output changes.  Will that be the case this month?  

I bloody well hope so

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Online ARTzeman  
#9 Posted : 01 July 2020 10:40:52(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Metcheck Today 14.80c   Difference  -1.59c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Caz  
#10 Posted : 01 July 2020 14:39:59(UTC)
Caz

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Posts: 20,565
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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: TimS Go to Quoted Post

 

I bloody well hope so

  Me too!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Online ARTzeman  
#11 Posted : 02 July 2020 09:53:34(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          17.0c        Anomaly          1.4c. provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                       15.27c      Anomaly           -1.29c

Netweather                    16.28c      Anomaly           -0.22c

Peasedown St John       13.7c        Anomaly          -4.1c.....

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#12 Posted : 02 July 2020 10:20:21(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

A consistently very warm year so far. Will July continue the trend?

 

 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

Online Global Warming  
#13 Posted : 02 July 2020 20:51:50(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,328

A rather cool first half of the month coming up. 

The CET this year is tracking 2007 very closely. Unfortunately July and August 2007 were both very poor temperature wise. I fear this year may follow a similar pattern.

Estimated CET at 16 July is just 15.95C

Table 1

Table 2

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline GezM  
#14 Posted : 03 July 2020 10:06:54(UTC)
GezM

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Location: St Albans

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

A rather cool first half of the month coming up. 

The CET this year is tracking 2007 very closely. Unfortunately July and August 2007 were both very poor temperature wise. I fear this year may follow a similar pattern.

Estimated CET at 16 July is just 15.95C

Table 1

Table 2

Cheers Global. I just wish you'd stop mentioning 2007 

Living in St Albans, Herts (90m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Online ARTzeman  
#15 Posted : 03 July 2020 10:39:14(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Posts: 27,332
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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         16.02c      Anomaly         0.8c Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                      15.02c      Anomaly         -1.45c

Netweather                   15.55c      Anomaly         -0.96c

Peasedown St John      13.92c      Anomaly       -3.88c.    

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#16 Posted : 03 July 2020 17:47:29(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 98
United Kingdom
Location: Berkhamsted, Herts

One important difference with 2007 is rainfall - we got locked into a very wet pattern in early May which continued more or less to August , whereas this year May was bone dry and June has been (imby anyway) not especially wet.

The CET stats tell me both May and June were warmer than normal before the cold July, but honestly I don't remember them as pleasant weather months in any way !

Offline Caz  
#17 Posted : 04 July 2020 07:33:55(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,565
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread Go to Quoted Post
One important difference with 2007 is rainfall - we got locked into a very wet pattern in early May which continued more or less to August , whereas this year May was bone dry and June has been (imby anyway) not especially wet.
The CET stats tell me both May and June were warmer than normal before the cold July, but honestly I don't remember them as pleasant weather months in any way !
There’s a big difference in rainfall here too.  We had floods in June 2007 from over 24 hours of constant heavy rain, the worst in my lifetime.  It wasn’t cold though and just as well, as we did a lot of paddling around.  May had been wet too.

This June has been dry apart from one tropical downpour in a thunder storm that lasted half an hour.  May was very dry, as was April this year.  We’re still only getting spits and spots this month, despite the amount of cloud, but not much sunshine either yet and a chilly breeze at times!   

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#18 Posted : 04 July 2020 09:40:40(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

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Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,151
Location: South Cambridgeshire

I went for 0.5C below normal for this July. Reckon that was a good move.

 

Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.

Online ARTzeman  
#19 Posted : 04 July 2020 09:55:44(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,332
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          15.5c.       Anomaly       0.2c. Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                       15.28c      Anomaly       -1.18c

Netweather                    15.43c      Anomaly       -1.08c

Peasedown St John       14.6c       Anomaly         -3.2c.      

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Online Global Warming  
#20 Posted : 04 July 2020 15:32:58(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,328

Here are the July predictions

Table

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
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July UK Temperature analysis and discussion (Weather)
by Global Warming 27/06/2019 21:34:02(UTC)
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