PLEASE SEE BELOW - Posted in April thread

Hi sorry everyone I have not got round to keeping things up to date this month. Too many other things to focus on. I will get everything up to date, including April results, this weekend. My inbox has plenty of space so you can post you predictions as usual.

GW has posted on the April cet thread he's fine. He has just been busy . It cant be easy especially for a 95 year old.

I have sent my prediction to Global Warming as per his request in the April CET thread 

  GW is OK!  

Darren, thanks for letting me know.  I had missed his post on the April thread!  

Please ignore my posts and send predictions to him by pm as usual!  

GW has posted on the April cet thread he's fine. He has just been busy . It cant be easy especially for a 95 year old.

Apologies for being off topic here, but I didn't realise that GW was as old as that (according to my recollections, that makes him even older than the Queen).

It would be interesting to see whether or not, that makes him the oldest active member of this forum as he surely has to be very close to that.

Furthermore, it be massive for this forum if he was still around in five years' time to become the first active member of this forum who is 100 years old, or older.

GW has posted on the April cet thread he's fine. He has just been busy . It cant be easy especially for a 95 year old.

  That’s you banned from the comp AP!  

 

Apologies for being off topic here, but I didn't realise that GW was as old as that 

He's not the oldest on the forum. Chunky Pea is still going strong at 117. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=profile&u=9278&name=Chunky%20Pea

 

He's not! I don't know why it says that, but he works for a start. I think he's younger than both of us.

If you look around you'll find that there are some forum members with a birth date of 1903, according to their profiles. 

I'm wondering if this has anything to do with the fact that some people might not actually be able to change their DOB on their profile, as I have discovered myself on several occasions (if my memory serves me right, I am able to change my DOB on the form for that but whenever I save everything on that form, my newly entered DOB never actually gets saved along with that).

That is clearly the result of a bug in the system, and I'm not sure whether or not, Brian knows anything about that or whether or not, anyone has reported that to him.

 

Apologies for being off topic here, but I didn't realise that GW was as old as that (according to my recollections, that makes him even older than the Queen).

It would be interesting to see whether or not, that makes him the oldest active member of this forum as he surely has to be very close to that.

Furthermore, it be massive for this forum if he was still around in five years' time to become the first active member of this forum who is 100 years old, or older.

 

 

Apologies for being off topic here, but I didn't realise that GW was as old as that (according to my recollections, that makes him even older than the Queen).

It would be interesting to see whether or not, that makes him the oldest active member of this forum as he surely has to be very close to that.

Furthermore, it be massive for this forum if he was still around in five years' time to become the first active member of this forum who is 100 years old, or older.

 

Classic ! 

 

He's not the oldest on the forum. Chunky Pea is still going strong at 117. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=profile&u=9278&name=Chunky%20Pea

This thread has been a great laugh! 

Thanks John and Darren 

Met Office Hadley         9.9c.        Anomaly        0.4c.  Provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                      8.54c       Anomaly       2.57c

Netweather                   10.04c     Anomaly       -1.27c

Peasedown St John     8.1c         Anomaly        -3.66c.     

Sticking with wacky notions...  - except not really, on this occasion! There's some very impressive high-latitude blocking being indicated by the modelling for next weekend and at least some way into the following week.

Usually I'd not pay much note to such extreme patterns being modelled, but the polar vortex is finally collapsing for its summer break and the current behaviour of the tropical cycle offers some support too.

It remains to be seen whether the HLB consolidates into one massive feature as per recent ECM runs, or gets split in two via the trough over Canada, which GFS is insistent upon. This evening's runs show some movement toward the GFS idea from ECM but toward the ECM idea from GFS. We can't really have a typical middle-ground compromise this time, though... the HLB is either split or not split.

Regardless, the potential is there for some exceptionally chilly temperatures for at least one day and notably cool ones for at least a few.

This, I factored into my May CET estimate - but I didn't go any lower than average, due to anticipation of a warm final third to the month (but not necessarily fine & dry...), which is based on where the tropical cycle looks to go next - essentially, what promotes a -NAO later next week looks to promote a +NAO by about a week after that. Part of the natural balancing of the climate system.

Met Office Hadley          9.8c       Anomaly       0.2c. Provisional to 2nd

Metcheck                       9.16c     Anomaly       -2.25c

Netweather                   10.28c    Anomaly       -1.03c

Peasedown St John    9.2c         Anomaly       -2.56c.

 

I'm wondering if this has anything to do with the fact that some people might not actually be able to change their DOB on their profile, as I have discovered myself on several occasions (if my memory serves me right, I am able to change my DOB on the form for that but whenever I save everything on that form, my newly entered DOB never actually gets saved along with that).

That is clearly the result of a bug in the system, and I'm not sure whether or not, Brian knows anything about that or whether or not, anyone has reported that to him.

 

No bug. The age displayed reflects how old I feel not how old I am . Must have been having a bad day when I decided to set it at 95 

 Nice one GW!

Major Arctic blocking spell still very much on the cards. ECM and GEM predict some extraordinarily low CET returns for 7-10 days time. Still outside the reliable, but foundations are laid by day 6... getting close enough to merit concern regarding potential impacts on some flora & fauna.

GFS continues to deflect the initial cold surge to the east - but not quite as much so on the 12z as the preceding few runs. The HLB also persists right out to D16 this time, which is omnous.

If we can get a GFS run that matches what ECM and GEM have been predicting lately, I can explore the potential CET impact (it's technically achievable with ECM figures via a certain US website, but only contour visualisations are provided, so it's a painfully slow and unreliable process).

 

No bug. The age displayed reflects how old I feel not how old I am . Must have been having a bad day when I decided to set it at 95 

Met Office Hadley          10.0c.      Anomaly        0.2c. Provisional to 3rd

Metcheck                       9.66c      Anomaly         -1.75c

Netweather                    10.39c    Anomaly         -0.92c

Peasedown St John      8.1c        Anomaly         -3.66c