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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 31 August 2019 20:42:12(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,135

This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during September, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own back yard.  


August has been a slightly above average month overall. 


For those taking part in the competition all CET predictions for September should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Do not post them directly into the thread. 


The deadline for predictions is 2359 tonight (Saturday evening). 


Now on to some data for September


Historic CET summary for September


1971-2000 13.7C (30 years)  


1981-2010 14.0C (30 years) 


1999-2018 14.4C (last 20 years)  


September last year was average with 13.7C with 13.5C in the previous year. 2016 was very warm with 16.0C whereas 2015 was cool with 12.7C. 


Here is a chart of the September CET for all years since 1961


Direct link to chart



Latest model output 850hPa and T2m temperatures - 28 Jul (12z) 


SHORT RANGE (2 weeks)


GEFS (12z) - mean is below average but huge scatter


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=


T2m temperatures are really quite cool


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=


GEM ENS (00z) - Similar to GFS


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gem&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=


T2m's on the cool side  


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gem&var=5&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=


The 00z ECM ENS T2m temperatures for De Bilt are also cool.


http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png


LONGER RANGE


Met Office contingency planners outlook  


Probability is for higher than average temperatures to be the most likely option.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-son-v1.pdf


Monthly outlook at BBC website


Cool first half but potentially warmer towards the latter part of the month


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 


JMA 


Cool start returning to average


http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_1/Y201908.D2812.png


http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201908.D2812.png


http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201908.D2812.png


ECM 


After a cool start it gradually turns warmer with potentially slightly above average conditions by the end of the month


https://www.met.hu/img/meTz/meTz20190829_0000+26400.png


https://www.met.hu/img/meTz/meTz20190829_0000+43200.png


https://www.met.hu/img/meTz/meTz20190829_0000+60000.png


https://www.met.hu/img/meTz/meTz20190829_0000+76800.png


Beijing Climate Centre  


Slightly above average for the UK


https://cmdp.ncc-cma.net/download/Prediction/MD2gen/20190830/figure/md2019091gl_t2m1_2.gif


CanSIPS


Close to average perhaps slightly above in the east of the UK


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2019080100/cansips_T2ma_global_2.png

Edited by moderator 01 September 2019 00:28:35(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl

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Offline Global Warming  
#2 Posted : 01 September 2019 20:29:22(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,135

Here is the list of predictions for September



Full sized table

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Gusty  
#3 Posted : 01 September 2019 20:41:29(UTC)
Gusty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 14,266
Man
Location: Folkestone

Thanks GW. An interesting spread of predictions there. Col could open up a significant lead if a decent September heatwave manifests. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Offline Col  
#4 Posted : 02 September 2019 06:54:28(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 915
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post


Thanks GW. An interesting spread of predictions there. Col could open up a significant lead if a decent September heatwave manifests. 



That's what I'm counting on. I feel that summer hasn't finished with us yet and like the past few months there will be a dose of heat towards the end of the month. This  line of thinking paid off in August and I'm hoping the weather pattern continues and it pays off in September as well. It is something of a gamble though, it could go badly wrong and if one of my closest rivals has a good month I could lose my lead entirely!

Edited by user 02 September 2019 06:56:19(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Offline ARTzeman  
#5 Posted : 02 September 2019 10:34:35(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,904
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley            12.4c.         Anomaly      -1.6c.


Metcheck                         13.6c          Anomaly      -0.12c


Netweather                      13.99c        Anomaly       0.3c


PSJ                                  12.74c        Anomaly      -1.98c. 



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Offline Jonesy  
#6 Posted : 02 September 2019 19:01:16(UTC)
Jonesy

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 21/07/2008(UTC)
Posts: 4,000
Man
Location: Medway

Damn, missed another month, forgot to message mine for September before I went on Holiday.
Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants when it wants no matter what data is thrown at it !
RIP Dougie - The Current Conditions Thread Master .
Offline Stormchaser  
#7 Posted : 03 September 2019 10:15:44(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,764
Man
Location: West Hants

Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post


That's what I'm counting on. I feel that summer hasn't finished with us yet and like the past few months there will be a dose of heat towards the end of the month. This  line of thinking paid off in August and I'm hoping the weather pattern continues and it pays off in September as well. It is something of a gamble though, it could go badly wrong and if one of my closest rivals has a good month I could lose my lead entirely!



A strong warm spell is certainly plausible with the background drivers bearing some similarity to Sep 2011 for example.


I've factored that in too, but couldn't drum up enough confidence to anticipate a long and strong enough warm spell to do more than neutralise the CET anomaly after the unusually cool opening 10 days or so.


Perhaps I'll regret that - after all, anticipating a big turnaround worked well in July & August.



The 00z ECM looks promising for a mid-month very warm spell, but the 00z FV3/GFS could hardly be more different. The two models have been at odds for several 00z/12z runs now.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports
2018's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Offline Gusty  
#8 Posted : 03 September 2019 10:24:55(UTC)
Gusty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 14,266
Man
Location: Folkestone

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post


 A strong warm spell is certainly plausible with the background drivers bearing some similarity to Sep 2011 for example.


I've factored that in too, but couldn't drum up enough confidence to anticipate a long and strong enough warm spell to do more than neutralise the CET anomaly after the unusually cool opening 10 days or so.



Same here SC. I'm spotting the potential mid month heatwave but I can't ignore these first 10 days. Nigh time temps are starting to drop into single digits with increasing frequency.


I didn't dare go above 14.32 as a result.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Offline ARTzeman  
#9 Posted : 03 September 2019 10:50:03(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,904
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley            13.5c.       Anomaly     -1.4c. Provisional to 2nd.


Metcheck                         14.15c      Anomaly      0.43c


Netweather                      14.46c      Anomaly      0.77c


Peasedown St John           13.8c.       Anomaly      -0.92c  Using a 6-year average.            



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Offline ARTzeman  
#10 Posted : 04 September 2019 09:52:46(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,904
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley            14.5c.        Anomaly          -0.4c. Provisional to 3rd.


Metcheck                         14.86c       Anomaly          1.14c


Netweather                      15.33c       Anomaly          1.64c


Peasedown St John            14.8c        Anomaly          0.08c 



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Offline Stormchaser  
#11 Posted : 04 September 2019 19:53:14(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,764
Man
Location: West Hants

We finally have a GFS run that depicts a big mid-month warm-up, albeit only lasting a week.


It's enough to rocket a rough CET estimate upward from just 13.4*C as of 10th to 14.7*C as of 18th. 


So, it goes to show how rapidly the 'flavour' of the month can change.


 


Worth noting the seasonal cooling trend with time though; applying long-term average from 21st onward temps thereafter results in the CET estimate dropping from the mid-14s as of 20th (end of FV3 run) to the low 14s as of month's end.


Sep 2011 was, however, an extremely strong reminder that the seasonal trend doesn't always apply! 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports
2018's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Offline ARTzeman  
#12 Posted : 05 September 2019 10:31:39(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,904
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley             14.7c.       Anomaly      -0.1c. Provisional to 4th.


Metcheck                          14.63c      Anomaly      0.91c


Netweather                       15.44c      Anomaly      1.73c


PSJ                                   14.85c      Anomaly      0.13c


 

Edited by user 05 September 2019 10:34:54(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Offline ARTzeman  
#13 Posted : 06 September 2019 09:50:39(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,904
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley           14.5c         Anomaly      -0.2c  Provisional to 5th.


Metcheck                        14.35c      Anomaly       0.63c


Netweather                     15.0c        Anomaly       1.31c.


Peasedown St John          14.18c      Anomaly       -0.54       



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Offline Grandad  
#14 Posted : 06 September 2019 20:02:13(UTC)
Grandad

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 30/10/2014(UTC)
Posts: 2,143
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Central Solihull

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post


Here is the list of predictions for September



Full sized table



GW..


Can you help me (or anybody please?)


Whenever I view  a posting of yours - nothing shows. The posting is totally blank.


If I reply  (as per this note) then I am able to see your posting, but not able to access any of your links outside of this forum.


If I access your profile I can then 'see' the last 10 postings of yours.


I was trying to ensure that my entry for this months competition was OK, but I am unable to see the table you have shown above.


 


It must be some 'option' somewhere, but I am lost as to where to start to resolve the issue. I wondered if I had accidently blocked you but can find no evidence of it..


Anyone else had the same problem?


 


Grandad 


 


Edit...


Just found a shoe/hide option at the end of your post.


If I click on 'show' the post appears. So how do I turn the 'hide' feature on/off is probably the question I need to ask? 


 


Oh no.... now I cannot see this post?     Can anyone else?


PS  I can see everyone elses posts OK>>>


 


 


PSS... Problem solved.....


I have found a 'show' all user  posts if I access the profile for Global Warming or anyone else.


I was not aware the option existed and must have turned it to 'hide' when I sent the PM for Sept CET  to you over2 weeks ago, before my hols.


I have just got back from holidays and I could not see any of my own (or more importantly) your posts.


 


Grandad  


 


 

Edited by user 06 September 2019 20:28:08(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline ARTzeman  
#15 Posted : 07 September 2019 09:51:36(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,904
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley           14.5c.      Anomaly      -0.2c. Provisional to 6th.


Metcheck                        14.20c     Anomaly      0.47c


Netweather                     14.81c     Anomaly      1.12c


Peasedown St John           14.38c     Anomaly      -0.34c   


        



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Offline ARTzeman  
#16 Posted : 08 September 2019 09:47:23(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,904
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         14.4c.      Anomaly       -0.2c Provisional to 7th.


Metcheck                      13.79c     Anomaly       0.07c


Netweather                   14.58c     Anomaly       0.89c


Peasedown St John        13.94c     Anomaly       -0.78c. 



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Offline Stormchaser  
#17 Posted : 08 September 2019 15:36:20(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,764
Man
Location: West Hants

GFS 00z possibly showed us the ultimate warmest possible outcome for mid-Sep with a prolonged southerly delivering a dozen days of increasingly impressive warmth. This catapults a rough CET estimate of mine up to 15.6*C as of 22nd, to the sound of much gleeful chuckling from Col in my overactive imagination.


Even exactly average conditions thereafter would land the final CET around the 15*C mark.


The 06z is more restrained, but still suggests that the CET may be a good way through the 14s by 23rd. ECM shows good support for the precursor UK high setup D6-D10.


Starting to wonder if I'll regret punting for a total balance of cool and warm this month.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports
2018's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Offline Col  
#18 Posted : 08 September 2019 15:53:42(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 915
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post


GFS 00z possibly showed us the ultimate warmest possible outcome for mid-Sep with a prolonged southerly delivering a dozen days of increasingly impressive warmth. This catapults a rough CET estimate of mine up to 15.6*C as of 22nd, to the sound of much gleeful chuckling from Col in my overactive imagination.


Even exactly average conditions thereafter would land the final CET around the 15*C mark.


The 06z is more restrained, but still suggests that the CET may be a good way through the 14s by 23rd. ECM shows good support for the precursor UK high setup D6-D10.


Starting to wonder if I'll regret punting for a total balance of cool and warm this month.



I did see that run and to be honest couldn't quite believe what I was seeing. It was apparently very much a warm/hot outlier though. So no 'gleeful chuckling' here at camp Col, at least not yet. It's more of a cautious optimism, after all the forecast warm weather is still a week away.

Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Offline ARTzeman  
#19 Posted : 09 September 2019 09:44:41(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,904
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         14.1c.       Anomaly        -0.6c.   Provisional to 8th.


Metcheck                      13.67c      Anomaly        -0.05c


Netweather                   14.21c      Anomaly        0.52c


Peasedown St John        13.8c       Anomaly        -0.92c. 



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Offline Col  
#20 Posted : 09 September 2019 11:46:51(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 915
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post


Met Office Hadley         14.1c.       Anomaly        -0.6c.   Provisional to 8th.


Metcheck                      13.67c      Anomaly        -0.05c


Netweather                   14.21c      Anomaly        0.52c


Peasedown St John        13.8c       Anomaly        -0.92c. 



Ouch! That's quite a drop, presumably primarily due to low overnight minima. It will take another hit today as well, this time mainly because of low maxima. After that I expect it will make a general steady rise, hopefully for some time to come!

Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
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