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Offline Rob K  
#341 Posted : 24 July 2019 10:38:06(UTC)
Rob K

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Location: Northeast Hampshire

Originally Posted by: Quantum Go to Quoted Post


Thresholds looking to beat today versus what we would expect tommorow:


July record: 33C


Good chance of hitting 38C: 34C


All time record: 35C


Comfortably above all time record: 36C


Chance of 40C: 37C


 


We just missed out on yesterday's all time threashold of 34C.


 



For which areas though? The highest modelled temperatures on the models (35C+) are in places outside the synoptic network so we probably won't see them.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#342 Posted : 24 July 2019 10:41:34(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

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Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post


 


For which areas though? The highest modelled temperatures on the models (35C+) are in places outside the synoptic network so we probably won't see them.



Yep - Also, conditions to achieve numbers will never be the same on any given day. I am not sure we ca say achieving 34C today will guarantee anything tomorrow as starting conditions will be different

Mark
Stratford, London
Offline Rob K  
#343 Posted : 24 July 2019 10:48:23(UTC)
Rob K

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Arome ensembles showing a few members going over 40C even as far north as the Midlands.


 


SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline andy-manc  
#344 Posted : 24 July 2019 10:53:45(UTC)
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I'm at a funeral at 1.30 tomorrow. Looking like a great afternoon to wear a black suit 

Offline eddied  
#345 Posted : 24 July 2019 11:03:05(UTC)
eddied

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Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post


 


 


And Langdon Bay is cooler now than it was overnight! 19.5C at 10am.



There's a wonderful article in the Evening Standard that plays fast and lose with the meteorology as usual. They spend two paragraphs highlighting how Langdon Bay would have broken the maximin night temperature, if it hadn't in fact been cooler. I know what they mean, but it made me chuckle.


Coincidentally, Reigate yesterday would have become the new holder for the all time high in England, if it had just been warmer.


And of course, there was the obligatory picture of a girl in a bikini. She was at Glastonbury, but don't worry about the calendar too much.

Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL
Summer max so far: 36C at home, 38C at work
Offline Saint Snow  
#346 Posted : 24 July 2019 11:03:57(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: andy-manc Go to Quoted Post


I'm at a funeral at 1.30 tomorrow. Looking like a great afternoon to wear a black suit 



 


I'm at my youngest's 'Leavers Assembly' in a small primary school assembly hall. It gets like a sauna when the temp outside's in the teens. It's going to be purgatory tomorrow. Only saving grace is it's first thing in the morning.

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Offline eddied  
#347 Posted : 24 July 2019 11:04:45(UTC)
eddied

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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post


 


Yep - Also, conditions to achieve numbers will never be the same on any given day. I am not sure we ca say achieving 34C today will guarantee anything tomorrow as starting conditions will be different



I think you're permitted to be a little unscientific in this thread aren't you? 

Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL
Summer max so far: 36C at home, 38C at work
Offline Joe Bloggs  
#348 Posted : 24 July 2019 11:23:47(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Tim A Go to Quoted Post


 


Think whether the cloud develops Mid-Afternoon could be a factor as to whether records are broken in the north.


Met Office has Leeds at 35c now, but also showers/thunderstorms from 4pm onwards.


 


Do you have the link for Manchester Uni to add to my bookmarks?


 


York University used to have a station on their roof also, but it seems it is down for repairs.



http://whitworth.cas.manchester.ac.uk/current/index.html


Here you go.


I wonder if the 33.7C highest ever Manchester temp in 1990 was at the Airport? I'd presume so.


Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL

Offline tallyho_83  
#349 Posted : 24 July 2019 12:48:32(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post


 


 


I'm at my youngest's 'Leavers Assembly' in a small primary school assembly hall. It gets like a sauna when the temp outside's in the teens. It's going to be purgatory tomorrow. Only saving grace is it's first thing in the morning.



Teens?

------------------------------------------------------------
Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (5m asl)
Offline Quantum  
#350 Posted : 24 July 2019 12:52:37(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post


 


For which areas though? The highest modelled temperatures on the models (35C+) are in places outside the synoptic network so we probably won't see them.



So highest temperature recorded today anywhere in the UK.


I'm basing the threasholds on a comparison with the highest pixel in most model forecasts vs the highest observed maxima. I realize I'm not comparing like with like but I don't think it matters too much, the two quantities are still related.


I reckon we would expect to see 35C today as an observed maximun if we were also expecting to see 38.5C tommorow.


 

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Offline Rob K  
#351 Posted : 24 July 2019 13:20:19(UTC)
Rob K

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Originally Posted by: Quantum Go to Quoted Post


 


So highest temperature recorded today anywhere in the UK.


I'm basing the threasholds on a comparison with the highest pixel in most model forecasts vs the highest observed maxima. I realize I'm not comparing like with like but I don't think it matters too much, the two quantities are still related.


I reckon we would expect to see 35C today as an observed maximun if we were also expecting to see 38.5C tommorow.


 



But today the modelled area of 35C+ coincides with only a small part of the country with basically no observations, so it would make more sense to compare the areas that are actually covered. Most models give about 32-33C for those areas.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline Brian Gaze  
#352 Posted : 24 July 2019 14:06:29(UTC)
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I've seen nothing today to change my view that we are likely to fall just short of Aug 2003 tomorrow.
Brian Gaze
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Offline scillydave  
#353 Posted : 24 July 2019 14:18:21(UTC)
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Belgium and the Netherlands have both broken their all time records today.
Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter.
Offline Rob K  
#354 Posted : 24 July 2019 14:19:16(UTC)
Rob K

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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post
I've seen nothing today to change my view that we are likely to fall just short of Aug 2003 tomorrow.


Really? I think 38.5C is almost a gimme, but I don't think we will quite reach 40C, which is what people are more concerned about.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline LeedsLad123  
#355 Posted : 24 July 2019 14:19:58(UTC)
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I think the extent of the heat will be noteworthy regardless. The Met Office shows a huge area of 35c covering much of England, from Kent up to Yorkshire and from Worcestershire to Lincolnshire. The national record might not go but I imagine many places will break their local records.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Offline Arcus  
#356 Posted : 24 July 2019 14:21:17(UTC)
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Very much depends on cloud coming up from the south associated with showers that are likely to start moving up from France later tomorrow afternoon. Timing on that will be a key factor.
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Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#357 Posted : 24 July 2019 14:21:47(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post
I've seen nothing today to change my view that we are likely to fall just short of Aug 2003 tomorrow.


 


The only thing that will stop the record going in my opinion is cloud cover , a few storms likely in the afternoon may scupper it. But i think 39c will happen somewhere. 

Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#358 Posted : 24 July 2019 14:23:56(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post
I've seen nothing today to change my view that we are likely to fall just short of Aug 2003 tomorrow.


What are you seeing that makes you unconvinced?

Mark
Stratford, London
Offline Justin W  
#359 Posted : 24 July 2019 14:36:58(UTC)
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Over the last 10 hours, the Met Office automated output has dialled back the projected max down the hill in Wye tomorrow by 2C - from 38C to 36C.


I don't think we will see the all-time record broken tomorrow.

Offline Brian Gaze  
#360 Posted : 24 July 2019 14:40:15(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post


 


What are you seeing that makes you unconvinced?



Cloud cover and risk of showers as others have flagged up. Also models aren't consistent enough. Arpege always (IME) is similar to UKV. None of the others have consistently been on board. 

Edited by user 24 July 2019 14:55:35(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Brian Gaze
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