TD15 now formed east of Cabo Verde islands, likely to become storm Nestor, but otherwise not to amount to much. Interesting only as it would break the record for formation of an easterly TS this late in the year by a large margin

LATEST(2130 BST) NHC have downgraded it so will only be TD 15, not a named storm. Maybe the disturbance now showing in the Gulf of Mexico will get the next name but not for a few days yet in any case

TD 16 now formed in the Gulf, expected to become a named storm(Nestor) as the SSTs are still well above normal there. Forecast doesn't predict further deepening but instead a quick run across eastern states where its rain will be useful (they have a drought) and out into the Atlantic.. Landfall in the Florida panhandle where storm surge may be a problem

EDIT - now (0700 Sat) definitely storm Nestor landfalling in Florida with most of the severe weather southeast of storm centre 

This is a tropical storm. I'm sorry but it is.

Its obvious there is very clear discrimination against high latitude or mediteranian warm cored systems. We should not discriminate on the origin of the storm.

NHC do have it as a tropical system though not yet named

This is a tropical storm. I'm sorry but it is.

Its obvious there is very clear discrimination against high latitude or mediteranian warm cored systems. We should not discriminate on the origin of the storm.

 

Yeah tropical storm pablo 

 

Yeah tropical storm pablo 

So glad it was classified!

Such a cool storm.

Very similar to a medicane.

Blink and you've missed it - there was Olga, as well, formed in the Gulf of Mexico and already gone post-tropical. Neither Olga nor Pablo was named on the NHC chart yesterday, though Olga was shown as a disturbance unlikely to intensify.

Pablo is adorable, its so tiny!

Where is Q?

 Pablo very nearly became a Hurricane. So close! perhaps it did for a while but we may never know

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/270832.shtml

In the Arabian Sea, Cyclone Kyarr equivalent of a Cat 5

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/KYARR.html

Lol Pablo has to be the furthest NE hurricane ever.

Lol Pablo has to be the furthest NE hurricane ever.

This article confirms it is

https://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-weather/record-breaking-hurricane-pablo-mk/

It can’t be long until an actual hurricane makes landfall in Europe. At this rate I could see one hitting the UK or Ireland in the near future. Pablo formed over waters of 17-19C!

God, they've named a storm after "Rebekah" Vardy

Unbelievable. 3rd Azores TC in a Year?!?!!

Unbelievable. 3rd Azores TC in a Year?!?!!

 

Under normal circumstances, you would expect the Azores High to keep any Atlantic Hurricanes away from that part of the world, so the fact that this hasn't really happened this year is probably enough on its own to show that the atmosphere is certainly not behaving in the manner in which we would normally expect it to.

Unbelievable. 3rd Azores TC in a Year?!?!!

 

Interesting. Now the question is what has changed?

We have not previously had an extended solar minimum in the modern era and the current one is breaking the records set in the previous minimum. Is that a factor, or is it our old chestnut AGW, or is it a combination of various different factors?

Is it possible to examine any historic data from the Dalton minimum to see if any similar effects were seen? (The Maunder Minimum would lack any such historic climate data I would surmise).

FWIW. Is the recent increase in small named storms (and the overall total) a climatic effect, or just better (satellite) observation?

Only six other seasons have had 17+ named storms by October 30: 1933, 1995, 2005, 2010, 2011 and 2012. Rebekah became a named storm at 38.3°N—the farthest north that an Atlantic named storm has formed this late in the calendar year since Subtropical Storm Two developed on December, 9, 1975.  7 of the first 16 Atlantic named storms in 2019 lasted 24 hours or less as a named storm—the most extremely short-lived named storms on record, breaking the old record of 6 set in 2005.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Devils-Night-Surprise-Subtropical-Storm-Rebekah-Forms-Central-Atlantic?cm_ven=cat6-widget

FWIW. Is the recent increase in small named storms (and the overall total) a climatic effect, or just better (satellite) observation?

Only six other seasons have had 17+ named storms by October 30: 1933, 1995, 2005, 2010, 2011 and 2012. Rebekah became a named storm at 38.3°N—the farthest north that an Atlantic named storm has formed this late in the calendar year since Subtropical Storm Two developed on December, 9, 1975.  7 of the first 16 Atlantic named storms in 2019 lasted 24 hours or less as a named storm—the most extremely short-lived named storms on record, breaking the old record of 6 set in 2005.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Devils-Night-Surprise-Subtropical-Storm-Rebekah-Forms-Central-Atlantic?cm_ven=cat6-widget

All most certainly satellites.