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Offline DEW  
#1 Posted : 09 July 2019 06:19:57(UTC)
DEW

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The previous thread seems to have died - perhaps it was premature.

Anyway, here's a curiosity - probable development of a tropical storm in the next 5 days, some models say up to hurricane cat 1,  from a disturbance moving off the southern US. This is the opposite direction to the usual one.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Invest-92L-Likely-be-Tropical-Storm-Gulf-Mexico-Saturday?cm_ven=cat6-widget

The Atlantic has been quiet because of an outflow of dust from the Sahara but the eastern Pacific is already up to its third named storm, none of them really dramatic.

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys

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Offline The Beast from the East  
#2 Posted : 10 July 2019 17:32:16(UTC)
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"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

Offline DEW  
#3 Posted : 10 July 2019 20:44:47(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East Go to Quoted Post

Even if not hurricane (forecast is borderline) 10" rain and a near-record storm surge spell trouble for New Orleans

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline tallyho_83  
#4 Posted : 10 July 2019 22:38:48(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: DEW Go to Quoted Post

The previous thread seems to have died - perhaps it was premature.

Anyway, here's a curiosity - probable development of a tropical storm in the next 5 days, some models say up to hurricane cat 1,  from a disturbance moving off the southern US. This is the opposite direction to the usual one.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Invest-92L-Likely-be-Tropical-Storm-Gulf-Mexico-Saturday?cm_ven=cat6-widget

The Atlantic has been quiet because of an outflow of dust from the Sahara but the eastern Pacific is already up to its third named storm, none of them really dramatic.

 

Been a bit of a dead season so far but still early!!

Meanwhile this storm developing off the coast into the Gulf of Mexico could make landfall as a cat 1 hurricane: - It sort of came out of no where really!!??

 

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Offline DEW  
#5 Posted : 11 July 2019 06:14:17(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: DEW Go to Quoted Post

 

Even if not hurricane (forecast is borderline) 10" rain and a near-record storm surge spell trouble for New Orleans

To be precise, the predicted storm surge is quite small, about 5', but the Mississippi is currently in flood with water levels about 16' above datum. Add the two together and you get overtopping - design height is 20'

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/New-Orleans-Achilles-Heel-Hurricane-Storm-Surge-During-Mississippi-River-Flood?cm_ven=cat6-widget

 

 

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline doctormog  
#6 Posted : 11 July 2019 11:45:34(UTC)
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Yes the media and meteorologists in the US seems concerned about the potential of this system with quite a bit of flooding already in NOLA.
Offline DEW  
#7 Posted : 12 July 2019 06:05:58(UTC)
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Plaquemines parish (the tip of the Mississippi delta) is under a mandatory evacuation order

https://weather.com/news/news/2019-07-10-gulf-coast-barry-preps-louisiana-mississippi-texas

 

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline doctormog  
#8 Posted : 12 July 2019 22:07:41(UTC)
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The Weather Channel is reporting that up to two feet of rain are likely in parts of Louisiana as a result of Barry. There are some real concerns about flooding due to the rainfall, storm surge and the unusually high Mississippi River level.
Offline DEW  
#9 Posted : 13 July 2019 06:08:15(UTC)
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https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Barry-Churns-Near-Louisiana-Coast-Massive-Rains-Still-Expected?cm_ven=cat6-widget

Barry forecast to come ashore at about midday GMT, after being delayed by an inflow of dry air. Nevertheless, still expected to make hurricane cat 1 status. Inland there are worries about river flooding as it then slowly travels north with several places in Louisiana in line to smash July rainfall records

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline The Beast from the East  
#10 Posted : 13 July 2019 08:35:15(UTC)
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Almost a Cat 1, but the wind is not the issue

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

Offline DEW  
#11 Posted : 14 July 2019 09:21:49(UTC)
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It was a hurricane for 3 hours, apparently, and a couple of minor levees were overtopped. But now the worry is flooding from rainfall, not only local, but as the storm is forecast to follow the Mississippi as it moves inland, there's also a worry that that river will rise further from its already unusually high spring flood level.

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline tallyho_83  
#12 Posted : 19 July 2019 18:17:00(UTC)
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So far the Atlantic season has been inactive ...!! Maybe things will change!?
------------------------------------------------------------

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (5m asl)

Offline Caz  
#13 Posted : 20 July 2019 09:12:45(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 Go to Quoted Post
So far the Atlantic season has been inactive ...!! Maybe things will change!?
Hmmm!  Probably the end of August when hubby and I go to Jamaica!  

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Offline DEW  
#14 Posted : 01 August 2019 06:05:17(UTC)
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One to watch in mid-Atlantic - 70% chance of development over the next 5 days

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

 

EDIT - Maybe the one showing up on the GFS0z off New England on 17 August, but that's a long way off!

Edited by user 01 August 2019 06:09:24(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline Caz  
#15 Posted : 01 August 2019 17:20:37(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: DEW Go to Quoted Post

One to watch in mid-Atlantic - 70% chance of development over the next 5 days

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

 

EDIT - Maybe the one showing up on the GFS0z off New England on 17 August, but that's a long way off!

Hmm, if one develops around 17th August we could be in for a bumpy flight!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Roger Parsons  
#16 Posted : 01 August 2019 17:29:41(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

Hmm, if one develops around 17th August we could be in for a bumpy flight!  

July - stand by....

August - come it must.....

Roger

RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

No county (Lincolnshire) has better churches and worse houses. The poorer sort of people wash their clothes with hog's dung, and burn dried cow's dung for want of better fuel; whence comes the Lincolnshire proverb: "Where the hogs shite soap and the cows shite fire".

Curiosities of Great Britain (c.1780)

Offline Caz  
#17 Posted : 01 August 2019 17:53:31(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons Go to Quoted Post

July - stand by....

August - come it must.....

Roger

Yep!  Unfortunately hubby’s birthday is 22nd August and he wanted to spend it on holiday.  Jamaica doesn’t suffer too badly from hurricanes usually, but there’s always a first time!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline tallyho_83  
#18 Posted : 06 August 2019 00:13:42(UTC)
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Interesting read! We are in 2nd week of August soon and we have yet to have one named Hurricane in the Atlantic?

Just wanted to share this article:

https://engr.source.colo...lantic-hurricane-season/

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Offline picturesareme  
#19 Posted : 06 August 2019 00:34:02(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 Go to Quoted Post
Interesting read! We are in 2nd week of August soon and we have yet to have one named Hurricane in the Atlantic?

Just wanted to share this article:

https://engr.source.colostate.edu/researchers-continue-to-forecast-near-average-2019-atlantic-hurricane-season/

urricane Barry 

Offline DEW  
#20 Posted : 06 August 2019 06:42:49(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: picturesareme Go to Quoted Post

 

urricane Barry 

A nice distinction in terms of definitions here here.

Hurricane Barry was only active in the Gulf of Mexico - is that part of the Atlantic?

Andrea formed in the Atlantic Ocean, but only made it to Tropical Storm status

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
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