It’s not a given for any particular area even at this late stage but the blend of ppn output from the 12Z models didn’t really initiate activity into the SW until after 22.00hrs anyway.
I don’t understand the comments sometimes.

Note: Ben does a great job on these nowcast convection threads and shows impressive patience - the four hour vigil in SW Arkansas obviously helped 😉🌪

As did your driving avoiding fallen branches Neil... still wish we'd caught that tornado to this day...

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Thank you Arcus. It''s been a long wait for anything thundery in this part of the UK. The last four thunder warning's this summer have come to nought for this neck of the woods. So fingers crossed tonight will be the night. Looks promising to the south.

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As did your driving avoiding fallen branches Neil... still wish we'd caught that tornado to this day...

We weren’t that far away 😉 I’ve been fortunate enough (less skill lol) to grab several since then.

You are surely well overdue a return? 

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We weren’t that far away 😉 I’ve been fortunate enough (less skill lol) to grab several since then.

You are surely well overdue a return? 

Too right... As long as there's a bowl of fruit in it for me....

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Thank you Arcus. It''s been a long wait for anything thundery in this part of the UK. The last four thunder warning's this summer have come to nought for this neck of the woods. So fingers crossed tonight will be the night. Looks promising to the south.

Same here!  We’ve missed them all this year, although we’ve come close as I’ve heard thunder on a couple of occasions.  Maybe tonight!  

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Lots of medium level instability forming here and suddenly a very gusty SE wind which is providing a bit of relief!

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By the way, 'here' is Otley in Yorkshire

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You can almost hear the elastic noise of those convective areas straining against the capping to go full blown. As Neil rightly said, patience into the night...

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Whilst here in west Cornwall we will watch the activity pass just to our east ... as usual.

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Wow. 0 to 60 on the Cherbourg Peninsula.

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Signs of life to close to the Channel Islands as well. Is the cap finally being eroded away? ⚡

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Despite me dismissing that initial band tracking NNE earlier today, it is now intensifying somewhat west of Leicester. One to watch.

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Models predicted the storms off the north coast of spain would bubble up... dissipate and be replaced by new storms off north coast of france.....

Storms have dissipated ...now looking for new cell formation ... its evolving to plan right now

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I suspect some in the SE that were not in the warning area from the MetO might see something tonight. Those developing storms are heading toward the coast Brighton to Bognor.

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Cheeky orographic cell in S Wales now as well.

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Wow. 0 to 60 on the Cherbourg Peninsula.

 

If anything, they are intensifying as they move out into the channel.

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Cells suddenlu erupting up wales

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Yes sudden explosion of cells happening now. One in Wales and two more south of Swansea.

Here we go!

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If anything, they are intensifying as they move out into the channel.

Indeed they are, and backbuilding as they go. Impressive strike rates given the footprint.

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One to watch

https://camsecure.co.uk/portsmouth_harbour_webcam.html 

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