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Offline Gavin D  
#1 Posted : 30 May 2019 14:21:45(UTC)
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Summer looks set to open up borderline hot towards the SE corner with temps in the uppers 20s here low to mid 20s quite widely for England and Wales on Saturday before cooler air spreads in on Sunday with the last of the heat clearing later in the day in the SE


 



 



 


Early next week has the potential for a deep area of low pressure to pass close to the UK the exact position of this is still open to doubt 


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Edited by moderator 31 May 2019 05:36:13(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline Gavin D  
#2 Posted : 30 May 2019 14:23:55(UTC)
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The met office seem to be hinting at a warmer, but possibly wetter than average summer 


Temperature summary


For June and June-July-August as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for June-July-August will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 45 and 50% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).


Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-jja-v1.pdf


Precipitation summary


For June and June-July-August as a whole, the chances of above- and below-average precipitation are similar. On balance, wetter-than-average conditions are marginally more likely. The probability that UK-average precipitation for June-July-August will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 15 and 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories around 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).


Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-jja-v1.pdf

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#3 Posted : 30 May 2019 15:16:20(UTC)
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After next week's unsettled spell we could get some significant heat from the east both gfs and Ecm flirting with the idea. It's a straw to clutch anyway. 


 

Offline ozone_aurora  
#4 Posted : 30 May 2019 21:51:50(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post


The met office seem to be hinting at a warmer, but possibly wetter than average summer 


Temperature summary


For June and June-July-August as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for June-July-August will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 45 and 50% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).


Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-jja-v1.pdf


Precipitation summary


For June and June-July-August as a whole, the chances of above- and below-average precipitation are similar. On balance, wetter-than-average conditions are marginally more likely. The probability that UK-average precipitation for June-July-August will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 15 and 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories around 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).


Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-jja-v1.pdf



Looks like it'll be sort of similar to Summer of 2017.

Offline Brian Gaze  
#5 Posted : 31 May 2019 05:38:05(UTC)
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I've stickied the thread. Things are looking quite mixed as the meteorological summer begins. The TWO forecast for the June, July and August will be online shortly.

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Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#6 Posted : 31 May 2019 05:49:21(UTC)
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Models seem to be getting worse cool and unsettled sums it up very very poor start to summer.


 


 

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#7 Posted : 01 June 2019 07:59:22(UTC)
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High pressure does seem to want to build in in the day 7 to 9 range on most models this morning so hopefully something to cling to after a poor week but saying that not much rain in the SE and EA. 


 


When is the Model output thread being reopened by the way?


 

Offline Gavin D  
#8 Posted : 01 June 2019 08:39:57(UTC)
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-5 850s over northern Scotland and -1s down as far as East Of England at the end of ECM. 


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Offline Gavin D  
#9 Posted : 01 June 2019 08:50:56(UTC)
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Looking at ECM the next 10 day's is certainly making up for the prolonged dry period we've had


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Offline Gavin D  
#10 Posted : 01 June 2019 10:29:31(UTC)
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TWO summer forecast


 


Summer 2019: Warm and possibly quite wet.


 


Forecast overview


The forecast headline is for a warmer than average summer in most of the UK. On balance there is considered to a greater chance of above rather than below average rainfall.


Temperature


The aggregated Central England Temperature (CET) for June, July and August is forecast to be 0.5C to 1.5C above the average.


Precipitation


Over the three month period precipitation levels are forecast to be between 95% to 115% of the average.


 


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

Offline Bertwhistle  
#11 Posted : 01 June 2019 17:22:48(UTC)
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Great diurnal contrast in some stations: Charlwood in Surrey features in the coldest, and warmest, of today's places:


https://www.eldoradoweather.com/climate/world-extremes/world-temp-rainfall-extremes.php?extremes=United%2BK


18.8C range. Reflects the very beginning of summer rather well, I think.

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Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#12 Posted : 02 June 2019 07:34:27(UTC)
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Most models still want to bring the high pressure back in about  7 days hopefully this can count down to 0. GFS goes hot late on ECM less so but settled.


PS can we have the Model output thread back please.

Offline doctormog  
#13 Posted : 02 June 2019 07:37:47(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post


Most models still want to bring the high pressure back in about  7 days hopefully this can count down to 0. GFS goes hot late on ECM less so but settled.


PS can we have the Model output thread back please.



Or put another way, the next week looks disappointing in terms of summery weather?

Offline DEW  
#14 Posted : 02 June 2019 07:45:06(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post


Most models still want to bring the high pressure back in about  7 days hopefully this can count down to 0. GFS goes hot late on ECM less so but settled.


PS can we have the Model output thread back please.



And into FI, where GFS extends but ECM fears to tread, it looks interestingly both hot and thundery by mid-June.


 


It is indeed a pity that this simple observation re the GFS output has no natural home at the moment.

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Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#15 Posted : 02 June 2019 07:58:21(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: DEW Go to Quoted Post


 


And into FI, where GFS extends but ECM fears to tread, it looks interestingly both hot and thundery by mid-June.


 


It is indeed a pity that this simple observation re the GFS output has no natural home at the moment.



 


 the Model output thread which is often the beating heart of TWO has been suspended for so long now is a real shame. 

Offline Caz  
#16 Posted : 02 June 2019 08:01:54(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: DEW Go to Quoted Post


 


And into FI, where GFS extends but ECM fears to tread, it looks interestingly both hot and thundery by mid-June.


 


It is indeed a pity that this simple observation re the GFS output has no natural home at the moment.


No point having a dedicated thread when posts don’t stay dedicated to it!  I can’t read charts but this is now my go to place to read how others interpret the MO.  And, Brian has ‘stickied’ this thread, so I guess that’s the way he sees it too!


 

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Offline Gavin D  
#17 Posted : 02 June 2019 08:25:30(UTC)
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Temperatures taking a drop after the last of the heat clears today a period of average or below average 850s then commences with rain never far away maybe something a bit warmer into the 2nd half of June but the 00z is a massive outlier for heat


Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#18 Posted : 02 June 2019 08:37:10(UTC)
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ECM means look decent but not spectacular from 168h onwards. Much dryer anyway especially for the North which looks like having an especially poor week this week.


 

Offline Gavin D  
#19 Posted : 02 June 2019 11:12:09(UTC)
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Not even mid June and GFS has parts of France at almost 40c


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Offline doctormog  
#20 Posted : 02 June 2019 12:07:31(UTC)
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8°C in N Scotland and 31°C in London? I guess it is theoretically possible.
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