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Offline Caz  
#61 Posted : 12 July 2019 15:41:58(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,089
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Summer has been perfect for me so far, if I go by the Astronomical definition.  The less said about June, the better.  Every day has been sunny and since the heatwave at the end of June temps have been low to mid 20’s every day and staying warm until after dark.  Even yesterday was sunny to the end, as the storms veered either side of us.  

More of this would suit me nicely and if It continues through the English school holidays that would be the icing on the cake.  Not that I have any school age kids now, but I think it’s such a shame when they break up for the summer and the summer breaks up!  Summer is when childhood memories are made!   

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Online johncs2016  
#62 Posted : 12 July 2019 16:17:10(UTC)
johncs2016

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 5,094
Man
United Kingdom
Location: West Pilton, Edinburgh

In one of today's videos which Gavin P. released today, he mentioned that some people in the north of the UK was now rating this month so far as being the worst since 2012 with the south of the UK experiencing quite a decent month so far. I know that Gavin P. has his own discussion area within his own website which he looks after himself with the help of various people including those who he often mentions on his videos, such as James Akrill.

Since that is outside of this forum, it might well be the case that people within the chat section of his own website take the view that this month has been the worst since 2012 in the north of the UK. Since I don't normally follow Gavin P.'s chat pages, I can't actually confirm that. As far as the TWO weather forum is concerned though, there hasn't really been anyone here who would have taken such a view that I know of, other than Richard from Aberdeen for whom, that is the generally which would probably have taken anyway.

Personally, I don't agree with the notion that this month has somehow been the worst since 2012 in the north of the UK, and that has certainly not been the case here. In a true unsettled spell during a poor summer (which is usually the case, during the majority of years), we would be getting showers whenever they are being forecast, and even getting them at times when it has been forecast to be dry. That just hasn't been the case here though during this month.

Yes, we have had periods of wet weather at times which on the odd occasion, has produced a lot of rainfall and even a bit of flash flooding. Yet, those wetter spells always end up being brief with the next significant dry spell never being far away. As far as the overall rainfall during this month is concerned, most of the rain which we have had during this month has fallen in the three day period between Tuesday and Thursday of this week, and even most of Thursday's rain fell during the early part of that morning.

In fact, this month is actually running not all that much wetter than average here and so far, the vast majority of days during this month have actually been completely dry. There has been numerous occasions when showers have been forecast and even one occasion (which was yesterday) when there was thunderstorms forecast for this area. Yet every time we get such a forecast, these showers and/or thunderstorms just never actually happen here and because of that, it's now got to the point where we can now actually safely ignore such a forecast as we know that we are never actually going to get those showers and/or thunderstorms in this part of the world.

Yet if this was a true and genuine poor summer month, there is absolutely no way on this Earth that this would be the case because in these years, these showers don't just occur when they are forecast to, but they end up being worse than what was forecast as well. The fact that this isn't happening surely has to show that this hasn't actually been such a bad month here after all.

The only downside is that it's been slightly colder than average overall, and that is due to the fact that daytime maximum temperatures have tended to be rather disappointing (overnight minimum temperatures are running at around average just now). Even on that front though, the last few days have actually been quite warm and so things are even improving on that front as well. In addition to that, we're also not doing too badly as regards to sunshine whereas in a genuinely poor summer month, it would be easy to tell that the month in question was duller than average due to the lack of sunshine being much more blatant than what it has been during this month so far.

If you then add all of those factors to the fact that I also live within the northern half of the UK, we can then see that the weather up here (at least in this part of the northern half of the UK) hasn't actually been as bad as what some people would make it out to be.

EDIT:

Just after posting this, I then looked outside and noticed that the heavens had suddenly opened, as it was now raining quite heavily. However, that is only one occasion where we have actually had any showers which have been forecast which is not enough to disprove my theory that this has generally not been happening during this month.

 

 

Edited by user 12 July 2019 16:27:23(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

MY THREE LOCAL WEATHER STATIONS

EDINBURGH GOGARBANK (more up to date sunshine totals come from here)

Latitude: 55° 55' 40.8'' N (DMS) or 55.928° (Dec)

Longitude: 3° 20' 34.8'' W (DMS) or -3.343° (Dec)

Altitude: 57m above mean sea level

EDINBURGH AIRPORT (added as an additional backup)

Latitude: 55° 56' 53.88'' N (DMS) or 55.9483° (Dec)

Longitude: 3° 20' 40.92'' W (DMS) or -3.447° (Dec)

Altitude: 33m above mean sea level

ROYAL BOTANIC GARDENS, EDINBURGH (the closest station to where I live)

Latitude: 55° 58' 1.2'' N (DMS) or 55.967° (Dec)

Longitude: 3° 13' 1.2'' W (DMS) or -3.2217° (Dec)

Altitude: 26m above mean sea level

Offline Gavin D  
#63 Posted : 19 July 2019 15:59:02(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 7,666
Man
United Kingdom

Level 2 heatwave alert issued for parts of the south

Current watch level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 10:08 on Fri 19 Jul 2019

There is a 60 % probability of heat health criteria being met between 0900 on Tuesday and 0900 on Thursday in parts of England.

A warm spell of weather is forecast to develop through the early part of next week, with the highest temperatures likely in the south and east of England. Conditions will stay warm and humid by night which could lead to uncomfortable sleeping conditions. Cloud and outbreaks of rain or thunderstorms are more likely in the west and north, with uncertainty at this time in these details, including how long the hot conditions will last for in the south and east.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

Offline Gavin D  
#64 Posted : 20 July 2019 14:02:39(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 7,666
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United Kingdom

Level 2 heatwave alert issued for all regions in England apart from the north-east and north-west

Current watch level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 09:08 on Sat 20 Jul 2019

There is an 80 % probability of heat health criteria being met between 0900 on Tuesday and 0900 on Thursday in parts of England.

A hot or very hot spell of weather is forecast to develop through the early part of next week, with the highest temperatures likely in the south and east of England. Conditions will stay very warm and humid by night which could lead to uncomfortable sleeping conditions. Some uncertainty regarding cloud and potential thunderstorms from Wednesday and thus how long the very warm conditions will last.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link:  http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

Offline Caz  
#65 Posted : 25 July 2019 12:23:18(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,089
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Summer just got a bit too hot for me!  33c is just too hot to do anything and I no longer have a nice air conditioned office to escape to!  I’m supposed to be helping my daughter landscape her garden but we knocked off at 10am and sat in the shade. These temps are OK if you have the sea or a pool to dip in but not when you have work to do!

On the plus side, if there is one, I’m off to Jamaica in less than four weeks time, so I should be well acclimatised.  Although today, temps in the Caribbean are probably a bit lower than the UK.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Pigeon  
#66 Posted : 25 July 2019 17:10:23(UTC)
Pigeon

Rank: Newbie

Joined: 19/07/2014(UTC)
Posts: 3
United Kingdom
Location: SE

My weather station registered over 40 degrees C this afternoon.  It has been uncomfortably hot in SE England today.

Offline ARTzeman  
#67 Posted : 26 July 2019 10:15:34(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,575
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

My temperature reached 30.9c. Manageable but the humidity makes it worse. Glad to lose it soon.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Online johncs2016  
#68 Posted : 26 July 2019 10:27:28(UTC)
johncs2016

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 5,094
Man
United Kingdom
Location: West Pilton, Edinburgh

This has been quite a strange summer because in the past, it would normally only have been during a really good summer such as what we had last year, that we would expect to see the sort of temperature records being broken which we saw yesterday.

Yet, this summer hasn't been a great summer overall, although it has been OK after that atrocious start to it. The events of this month will probably place the overall temperatures during this summer so far, on the warmer side of average after that cool start to June. However, our sunshine totals haven't really been any better than average overall, and this has actually been a wet summer here overall, although that rain has been coming in short, sharp bursts with plenty of dry weather in between.

This then makes it all the more remarkable that we're still seeing those temperature records being broken in spite of all of that. My fear though is that a developing La Nina in the ENSO region might lead to a poor August here. The outlook according to the latest model output isn't looking all that great and if that was to come off, that would then be enough for this summer to go down as a poor summer here overall, thanks to that cold and miserable start to June in addition to whatever August might throw at us.

Edited by user 26 July 2019 10:29:08(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

MY THREE LOCAL WEATHER STATIONS

EDINBURGH GOGARBANK (more up to date sunshine totals come from here)

Latitude: 55° 55' 40.8'' N (DMS) or 55.928° (Dec)

Longitude: 3° 20' 34.8'' W (DMS) or -3.343° (Dec)

Altitude: 57m above mean sea level

EDINBURGH AIRPORT (added as an additional backup)

Latitude: 55° 56' 53.88'' N (DMS) or 55.9483° (Dec)

Longitude: 3° 20' 40.92'' W (DMS) or -3.447° (Dec)

Altitude: 33m above mean sea level

ROYAL BOTANIC GARDENS, EDINBURGH (the closest station to where I live)

Latitude: 55° 58' 1.2'' N (DMS) or 55.967° (Dec)

Longitude: 3° 13' 1.2'' W (DMS) or -3.2217° (Dec)

Altitude: 26m above mean sea level

Offline Caz  
#69 Posted : 27 July 2019 10:52:13(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,089
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Well, we’re back to typical school holiday weather.  Grey and wet!  But I have a feeling we’ll be getting some more warm sunny weather before long.  I have no scientific evidence of course but we’ve had the ‘summer is over’ feeling a couple of times already this year and it just seems like we’re stuck in a different weather pattern this year.  Continental Europe has finally decided to send heat our way.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Saint Snow  
#70 Posted : 31 July 2019 09:22:17(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 42,814
Man
Location: St Helens

Turning out to be a really crap summer.

A very dismal June, followed by a mixed July with a couple of brief heatwaves but interspersed with heavy rain, and the forecast for August is more rubbish.

So far it gets a 4.5/10  (June: 3 / July: 6). That could easily go downwards with a poor August.

 

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Online johncs2016  
#71 Posted : 31 July 2019 13:47:30(UTC)
johncs2016

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 5,094
Man
United Kingdom
Location: West Pilton, Edinburgh

This summer has been very strange because when it's been wet here, it's been really wet. Yet on the vast majority of occasions such as today when showers have been forecast, we just haven't been getting those showers here in Edinburgh.

On this occasion, this comes from the fact that the main area of low pressure to a bit too far to our south to do anything other than to pull in an easterly wind from off the North Sea which then drags in a lot of muck with it. That then dampens any convective potential here which then has the effect of keeping these parts mostly bone dry.

However, that easterly muck doesn't penetrate very far inland which results in it becoming sunnier and warmer there. That then increases the convective potential the further inland that you go which then, results in those big showers and thunderstorms being set off there as a result.

To me, it is just a shame that we can't seem to get this sort of synoptic setup during the middle of winter because if we did, those easterly winds would probably have been a lot colder and instead of a lot of easterly muck coming off the North Sea, we would instead have probably being seeing quite a number of snow (or least, wintry) showers being brought in so this just shows what a difference, the time of year can make.

MY THREE LOCAL WEATHER STATIONS

EDINBURGH GOGARBANK (more up to date sunshine totals come from here)

Latitude: 55° 55' 40.8'' N (DMS) or 55.928° (Dec)

Longitude: 3° 20' 34.8'' W (DMS) or -3.343° (Dec)

Altitude: 57m above mean sea level

EDINBURGH AIRPORT (added as an additional backup)

Latitude: 55° 56' 53.88'' N (DMS) or 55.9483° (Dec)

Longitude: 3° 20' 40.92'' W (DMS) or -3.447° (Dec)

Altitude: 33m above mean sea level

ROYAL BOTANIC GARDENS, EDINBURGH (the closest station to where I live)

Latitude: 55° 58' 1.2'' N (DMS) or 55.967° (Dec)

Longitude: 3° 13' 1.2'' W (DMS) or -3.2217° (Dec)

Altitude: 26m above mean sea level

Offline Gavin D  
#72 Posted : 02 August 2019 08:43:12(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 7,666
Man
United Kingdom

A yellow severe weather warning for thunderstorms has been issued for Sunday afternoon and evening

12:00 Sun 4 22:00 Sun 4

Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms may cause some transport disruption and flooding on Sunday.

What to expect

  • There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded quickly, with damage to some buildings from floodwater and lightning strikes
  • There is a small chance of fast flowing or deep floodwater causing danger to life
  • Where flooding or lightning strikes occur, there is a chance of delays and some cancellations to train and bus services
  • There is a small chance that some communities become cut off by flooded roads

Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop across Scotland and northern England during Sunday afternoon into the evening. The nature of showers means that the exact location of where impacts occur is uncertain. However, showers may become slow-moving over some locations and could receive 30-40 mm of rainfall in one or two hours.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Weatherdesk_Enquiries#?date=2019-08-04&id=c2630e6c-d723-4499-ba37-99987987ce0e&details

Offline DEW  
#73 Posted : 02 August 2019 18:57:53(UTC)
DEW

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 11,898
Man
Location: Chichester 12m. asl

I've been struck by the number of times this last month or so that the Max day temp and the min day temp in the SE have been at Heathrow and St Catherine's Point respectively. Not individually, but almost always paired up; and other stations such as Gosport Fleetlands (max) and Langdon Bay (min) just getting an occasional look in. 

I can appreciate the reasons why these two stations should often feature; but as I've said, so frequently as a pair merits comment

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline Caz  
#74 Posted : 07 August 2019 17:58:08(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,089
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Well, I can honestly say that here, this summer has been good since the end of June!   I know some places have had flooding but we’ve missed most of the rain and have had temps at least in the mid twenties every day.  It may be about to change but I really can’t grumble!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#75 Posted : 08 August 2019 14:39:26(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,575
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Change the name this thread for the next few days. It is going to be rather Autumnal ..

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Whether Idle  
#76 Posted : 14 August 2019 08:51:43(UTC)
Whether Idle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 8,163
Man
Location: Dover

...copied to a more relevant thread...

 

This Simple Summer Index has been around since 2017.  It takes sunshine hours, mean maximum temperature, and dry days for each month, processes them in a proportionate way  with a slight bias in favour of sunshine (weighted 0.4 as opposed to 0.3 for temperature and dry days).

It aims to strip out as far as possible any subjectivity and use objective data to measure the quality of a summer taking sunshine, daytime maxima and dry days as its measure of quality summer weather.  (June July and August are denoted as the 3 months in question).

The highest score for any summer this far on this index is 74.7 (Manston 2018).  The lowest score is 30.9 (Lerwick 2015). the mean score for all summers across all stations is 52.0. A score of 52 would represent a very poor summer by the standards of Eastbourne, but a very good one for Stornoway.  So in a sense its interesting to note the mean and median scores for each climate station, as the geographical-climatic impact on summer weather quality is notable.

You will note that stations in the far South east tend to outperform stations further north and west, which I unsurprising in some respects.

2018 was clearly and outstanding summer for many stations away from the far NW. 2009 brought perhaps the biggest ever NW SE divide, and 2013 one of the smallest ever, with much of the country enjoying excellent summer weather.

What results will 2019 bring?

Simple Summer Index 2001-2018 by Whether Idle
YearManstonBradfordGlasgowLondonLerwickEastbourneYeoviltonArmaghStornoway
200166.450.845.265.533.268.861.345.340.2
200264.447.043.558.339.662.757.042.337.0
200374.152.851.669.943.872.662.150.439.1
200460.346.144.962.042.364.756.247.438.7
200565.451.751.761.434.270.763.045.734.8
200670.157.057.465.840.070.967.652.842.9
200759.146.945.851.735.461.851.641.439.7
200865.843.142.554.238.260.049.040.639.1
200968.549.446.956.244.767.551.147.040.6
201062.649.648.559.335.466.260.448.036.1
201159.754.048.753.336.363.849.044.437.8
201255.141.142.149.736.758.744.038.439.1
201362.358.457.365.937.868.463.855.642.7
201462.153.755.262.437.262.860.848.042.7
201556.050.645.056.930.960.457.044.030.7
201663.848.943.057.938.461.757.142.234.8
201765.447.537.259.536.067.254.641.540.1
201874.762.855.772.839.973.866.653.339.4
          
mean64.250.647.960.137.865.757.346.038.6All stations52.0
median64.150.146.359.437.565.457.145.539.151.6

Edited by user 14 August 2019 11:04:40(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

With model watching its as much about remembering to forget things as it is forgetting to remember.
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