In one of today's videos which Gavin P. released today, he mentioned that some people in the north of the UK was now rating this month so far as being the worst since 2012 with the south of the UK experiencing quite a decent month so far. I know that Gavin P. has his own discussion area within his own website which he looks after himself with the help of various people including those who he often mentions on his videos, such as James Akrill.

Since that is outside of this forum, it might well be the case that people within the chat section of his own website take the view that this month has been the worst since 2012 in the north of the UK. Since I don't normally follow Gavin P.'s chat pages, I can't actually confirm that. As far as the TWO weather forum is concerned though, there hasn't really been anyone here who would have taken such a view that I know of, other than Richard from Aberdeen for whom, that is the generally which would probably have taken anyway.

Personally, I don't agree with the notion that this month has somehow been the worst since 2012 in the north of the UK, and that has certainly not been the case here. In a true unsettled spell during a poor summer (which is usually the case, during the majority of years), we would be getting showers whenever they are being forecast, and even getting them at times when it has been forecast to be dry. That just hasn't been the case here though during this month.

Yes, we have had periods of wet weather at times which on the odd occasion, has produced a lot of rainfall and even a bit of flash flooding. Yet, those wetter spells always end up being brief with the next significant dry spell never being far away. As far as the overall rainfall during this month is concerned, most of the rain which we have had during this month has fallen in the three day period between Tuesday and Thursday of this week, and even most of Thursday's rain fell during the early part of that morning.

In fact, this month is actually running not all that much wetter than average here and so far, the vast majority of days during this month have actually been completely dry. There has been numerous occasions when showers have been forecast and even one occasion (which was yesterday) when there was thunderstorms forecast for this area. Yet every time we get such a forecast, these showers and/or thunderstorms just never actually happen here and because of that, it's now got to the point where we can now actually safely ignore such a forecast as we know that we are never actually going to get those showers and/or thunderstorms in this part of the world.

Yet if this was a true and genuine poor summer month, there is absolutely no way on this Earth that this would be the case because in these years, these showers don't just occur when they are forecast to, but they end up being worse than what was forecast as well. The fact that this isn't happening surely has to show that this hasn't actually been such a bad month here after all.

The only downside is that it's been slightly colder than average overall, and that is due to the fact that daytime maximum temperatures have tended to be rather disappointing (overnight minimum temperatures are running at around average just now). Even on that front though, the last few days have actually been quite warm and so things are even improving on that front as well. In addition to that, we're also not doing too badly as regards to sunshine whereas in a genuinely poor summer month, it would be easy to tell that the month in question was duller than average due to the lack of sunshine being much more blatant than what it has been during this month so far.

If you then add all of those factors to the fact that I also live within the northern half of the UK, we can then see that the weather up here (at least in this part of the northern half of the UK) hasn't actually been as bad as what some people would make it out to be.

EDIT:

Just after posting this, I then looked outside and noticed that the heavens had suddenly opened, as it was now raining quite heavily. However, that is only one occasion where we have actually had any showers which have been forecast which is not enough to disprove my theory that this has generally not been happening during this month.

Edited by user 12 July 2019 16:27:23(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Level 2 heatwave alert issued for all regions in England apart from the north-east and north-west

Current watch level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 09:08 on Sat 20 Jul 2019

There is an 80 % probability of heat health criteria being met between 0900 on Tuesday and 0900 on Thursday in parts of England.

A hot or very hot spell of weather is forecast to develop through the early part of next week, with the highest temperatures likely in the south and east of England. Conditions will stay very warm and humid by night which could lead to uncomfortable sleeping conditions. Some uncertainty regarding cloud and potential thunderstorms from Wednesday and thus how long the very warm conditions will last.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link:  http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

My weather station registered over 40 degrees C this afternoon.  It has been uncomfortably hot in SE England today.

This has been quite a strange summer because in the past, it would normally only have been during a really good summer such as what we had last year, that we would expect to see the sort of temperature records being broken which we saw yesterday.

Yet, this summer hasn't been a great summer overall, although it has been OK after that atrocious start to it. The events of this month will probably place the overall temperatures during this summer so far, on the warmer side of average after that cool start to June. However, our sunshine totals haven't really been any better than average overall, and this has actually been a wet summer here overall, although that rain has been coming in short, sharp bursts with plenty of dry weather in between.

This then makes it all the more remarkable that we're still seeing those temperature records being broken in spite of all of that. My fear though is that a developing La Nina in the ENSO region might lead to a poor August here. The outlook according to the latest model output isn't looking all that great and if that was to come off, that would then be enough for this summer to go down as a poor summer here overall, thanks to that cold and miserable start to June in addition to whatever August might throw at us.

Edited by user 26 July 2019 10:29:08(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Turning out to be a really crap summer.

A very dismal June, followed by a mixed July with a couple of brief heatwaves but interspersed with heavy rain, and the forecast for August is more rubbish.

So far it gets a 4.5/10  (June: 3 / July: 6). That could easily go downwards with a poor August.

A yellow severe weather warning for thunderstorms has been issued for Sunday afternoon and evening

12:00 Sun 4 22:00 Sun 4

Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms may cause some transport disruption and flooding on Sunday.

What to expect

• There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded quickly, with damage to some buildings from floodwater and lightning strikes
• There is a small chance of fast flowing or deep floodwater causing danger to life
• Where flooding or lightning strikes occur, there is a chance of delays and some cancellations to train and bus services
• There is a small chance that some communities become cut off by flooded roads

Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop across Scotland and northern England during Sunday afternoon into the evening. The nature of showers means that the exact location of where impacts occur is uncertain. However, showers may become slow-moving over some locations and could receive 30-40 mm of rainfall in one or two hours.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Weatherdesk_Enquiries#?date=2019-08-04&id=c2630e6c-d723-4499-ba37-99987987ce0e&details

Well, I can honestly say that here, this summer has been good since the end of June!   I know some places have had flooding but we’ve missed most of the rain and have had temps at least in the mid twenties every day.  It may be about to change but I really can’t grumble!  

...copied to a more relevant thread...

This Simple Summer Index has been around since 2017.  It takes sunshine hours, mean maximum temperature, and dry days for each month, processes them in a proportionate way  with a slight bias in favour of sunshine (weighted 0.4 as opposed to 0.3 for temperature and dry days).

It aims to strip out as far as possible any subjectivity and use objective data to measure the quality of a summer taking sunshine, daytime maxima and dry days as its measure of quality summer weather.  (June July and August are denoted as the 3 months in question).

The highest score for any summer this far on this index is 74.7 (Manston 2018).  The lowest score is 30.9 (Lerwick 2015). the mean score for all summers across all stations is 52.0. A score of 52 would represent a very poor summer by the standards of Eastbourne, but a very good one for Stornoway.  So in a sense its interesting to note the mean and median scores for each climate station, as the geographical-climatic impact on summer weather quality is notable.

You will note that stations in the far South east tend to outperform stations further north and west, which I unsurprising in some respects.

2018 was clearly and outstanding summer for many stations away from the far NW. 2009 brought perhaps the biggest ever NW SE divide, and 2013 one of the smallest ever, with much of the country enjoying excellent summer weather.

What results will 2019 bring?

Edited by user 14 August 2019 11:04:40(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified