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Offline ARTzeman  
#61 Posted : 17 May 2019 11:58:28(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,065
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         9.9c.     Anomaly      -0.7c. Provisional 10 16th.

Metcheck                      9.57c    Anomaly      -1.83c

Netweather                   10.5c    Anomaly      -1.26c

Mean Of my 10          10.86c.  Difference  -1.16c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline ARTzeman  
#62 Posted : 18 May 2019 09:56:08(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,065
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          10.1c.       Anomaly     -0.6c. Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                        9.68c       Anomaly     -1.72c

Netweather                     10.15c.    Anomaly     -1.16c.

Mean of my 10 stations   10.89c. Difference  1.13c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Global Warming  
#63 Posted : 19 May 2019 09:53:35(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,007
United Kingdom
Location: Basingstoke

Latest output suggests temperatures very slightly above average for the rest of the month. Overall the month could be close to 0.5C below the 1981-2010 mean but close to the 1971-2000 mean.

Current estimate for the final May CET mean is 11.22C. Hadley is currently about 0.3C above my calculations.

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

Offline Caz  
#64 Posted : 19 May 2019 10:00:01(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 17,271
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Thank GW!    I was wondering what your estimate was.  

Looks like I’ve gone way too high this month!  Too much wishful thinking and memories of last year!   

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline four  
#65 Posted : 19 May 2019 10:10:11(UTC)
four

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 19,038
Location: N.Y.Moors

8C (-2.2C) here this morning, the rest of the month looks lack-lustre for warmth at least near the east coast.
Offline ARTzeman  
#66 Posted : 19 May 2019 10:21:33(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Posts: 25,065
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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          10.2c.     Anomaly      -0.5c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                       9.81c      Anomaly      -1.60c

Netweather                    10.26c    Anomaly      -1.05c.

Mean of my 10           11.04c.   Difference     -0.98c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline johncs2016  
#67 Posted : 19 May 2019 13:00:55(UTC)
johncs2016

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 4,439
Man
United Kingdom
Location: West Pilton, Edinburgh

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

Thank GW!    I was wondering what your estimate was.  

Looks like I’ve gone way too high this month!  Too much wishful thinking and memories of last year!   

I fell into that trap as well because I was looking at the fact that recent months have tended to be warmer in the end, than what they had been expected to be and so, I felt that going for a warm value as my estimate would be a safe bet as a result.

However, that has ended up not being the case with this month and because of that, going for that warmer value in order to try to be on the safe side has ended up being quite a big mistake in itself on this occasion.

In fact, that on this occasion is the equivalent in recent months of going for a colder than average month overall, only to find that it has actually been much warmer than average in the end.

This shows that you just can't win with these things, sometimes. In fact, it's just Sod's Law that the weather all often does the exact opposite of what I actually want it to do which is shown during the winter in particular, when it tends to be much warmer than what I would like it to be. By following that same philosophy, it would just be like the thing if we had now entered the time of year when it is now more likely to be colder than average, now that we are about to go into our summer.

 

 

Edited by user 19 May 2019 13:06:01(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

MY THREE LOCAL WEATHER STATIONS

EDINBURGH GOGARBANK (more up to date sunshine totals come from here)

Latitude: 55° 55' 40.8'' N (DMS) or 55.928° (Dec)

Longitude: 3° 20' 34.8'' W (DMS) or -3.343° (Dec)

Altitude: 57m above mean sea level

EDINBURGH AIRPORT (added as an additional backup)

Latitude: 55° 56' 53.88'' N (DMS) or 55.9483° (Dec)

Longitude: 3° 20' 40.92'' W (DMS) or -3.447° (Dec)

Altitude: 33m above mean sea level

ROYAL BOTANIC GARDENS, EDINBURGH (the closest station to where I live)

Latitude: 55° 58' 1.2'' N (DMS) or 55.967° (Dec)

Longitude: 3° 13' 1.2'' W (DMS) or -3.2217° (Dec)

Altitude: 26m above mean sea level

Offline Gavin P  
#68 Posted : 19 May 2019 18:37:19(UTC)
Gavin P

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 35,090
Man
United Kingdom

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Latest output suggests temperatures very slightly above average for the rest of the month. Overall the month could be close to 0.5C below the 1981-2010 mean but close to the 1971-2000 mean.

Current estimate for the final May CET mean is 11.22C. Hadley is currently about 0.3C above my calculations.

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

Thanks GW. 

So another month where we take around 1C off the anomaly from the preceding month...

If that carries on for June we'll be 1C below average. 

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/

Offline ARTzeman  
#69 Posted : 20 May 2019 15:01:16(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,065
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          10.03c.      Anomaly     -0.4c.  Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                       9.99c        Anomaly     -1.42c

Netweather                    10.4c        Anomaly     -0.91c

Mean of my 10              10.94c.     Difference     -1.08c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Col  
#70 Posted : 20 May 2019 16:51:50(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 696
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Latest output suggests temperatures very slightly above average for the rest of the month. Overall the month could be close to 0.5C below the 1981-2010 mean but close to the 1971-2000 mean.

Current estimate for the final May CET mean is 11.22C. Hadley is currently about 0.3C above my calculations.

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

I'm hoping it will end at least a little higher than this. There asa some pretty warm conditions on the way for this week which wasn't really forecast a couple of days ago and unlike last week the highest temps will be in the south rather than being 'wasted' in Scotland :)

I'm not liking the look of the cool north-weaterlies/northerlies that have been quite consistently progged on the GFS for a few days now, but that's still too far off to be taken too seriously.

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#71 Posted : 20 May 2019 20:16:28(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 58
United Kingdom
Location: Berkhamsted, Herts

Looking good for my guess for a change then. I figured 3 scorching Mays in a row was too much to ask.
Offline ARTzeman  
#72 Posted : 21 May 2019 12:07:10(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,065
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          10.4c.     Anomaly     -0.3c. Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                       10.09c    Anomaly     -1.32c

Netweather                    10.56c    Anomaly     -0.75c

Mean Of My 10             11.31c.    Difference    -0.71c.

   

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline ARTzeman  
#73 Posted : 22 May 2019 09:41:12(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,065
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          10.5c.      Anomaly     -0.2c.  Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                       10.20c     Anomaly     -1.20c

Netweather                    10.69c     Anomaly     -0.62c.

Mean of my 10 stations   11.02c.    Anomaly     -1.0c.    

Edited by user 22 May 2019 17:23:01(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline ARTzeman  
#74 Posted : 23 May 2019 12:02:33(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,065
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         10.06c.     Anomaly       -0.2cc. Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                      10.40c      Anomaly       -1.00c

Netweather                   10.83c      Anomaly       -0.48c

Man of my 10 stations    11.56c.    Difference     -0.46c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Bertwhistle  
#75 Posted : 23 May 2019 16:14:02(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,327
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley         10.06c.     Anomaly       -0.2cc. Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                      10.40c      Anomaly       -1.00c

Netweather                   10.83c      Anomaly       -0.48c

Man of my 10 stations    11.56c.    Difference     -0.46c.

10.6?

This late in the month, despite some warmth of late, it looks as if my figure was way too high. Surprising it's so low still though, with our double digit nights and 21C days; but then- we're not in the CET triangle.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Caz  
#76 Posted : 24 May 2019 02:57:43(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 17,271
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

10.6?

This late in the month, despite some warmth of late, it looks as if my figure was way too high. Surprising it's so low still though, with our double digit nights and 21C days; but then- we're not in the CET triangle.

Yesterday I started to post that we’d had 21c in the day but only single figures at night.  Then my system shut down so I gave up!   However, last night’s low was 11.2c. 

We’re not in the CET area either though and like you, I’ve gone way too high with my guess.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline GezM  
#77 Posted : 24 May 2019 09:00:40(UTC)
GezM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 681
Man
United Kingdom

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

Yesterday I started to post that we’d had 21c in the day but only single figures at night.  Then my system shut down so I gave up!   However, last night’s low was 11.2c. 

We’re not in the CET area either though and like you, I’ve gone way too high with my guess.  

Unfortunately it's looking a lot cooler next week. Although Pershore and Rothamsted look likely to hold up reasonably well, I think Stonyhurst will bring the averages down. Definitely looking like a sub 11.5 month to me now. 

Living in St Albans, Herts (90m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Offline ARTzeman  
#78 Posted : 24 May 2019 10:05:14(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,065
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          10.8c       Anomaly      -0.1c. Provisional to  23rd. 

Metcheck                       10.60c     Anomaly      -0.81c

Netweather                    11.0c      Anomaly       -0.31c

Mean of my 10 stations    11.68c.   Difference    -0.34c.     

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline LeedsLad123  
#79 Posted : 24 May 2019 21:15:24(UTC)
LeedsLad123

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/11/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,610
Man
Location: Leeds

The weather has been cracking recently so I’m also surprised it’s still so low. After the lousy weather earlier in the month it’s been good.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Offline Global Warming  
#80 Posted : 24 May 2019 21:16:18(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,007
United Kingdom
Location: Basingstoke

Well this month looks like being cool throughout. No real warm up in the second half. In fact the next two days will see the highest positive temperature anomalies of the month and even those are not very impressive and are mainly due to high minimums.

Now looking at potentially a sub 11C month. Current May CET estimate is 10.96C. That would be the coolest May since 2015 and only the fourth time the May CET has been below 11C since 1996.

Expect a significant downward adjustment again this month. Hadley is currently running 0.43C above my estimate.

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

Edited by user 24 May 2019 21:17:45(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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