Met Office Hadley         9.9c.     Anomaly      -0.7c. Provisional 10 16th.

Metcheck                      9.57c    Anomaly      -1.83c

Netweather                   10.5c    Anomaly      -1.26c

Mean Of my 10          10.86c.  Difference  -1.16c.  

Latest output suggests temperatures very slightly above average for the rest of the month. Overall the month could be close to 0.5C below the 1981-2010 mean but close to the 1971-2000 mean.

Current estimate for the final May CET mean is 11.22C. Hadley is currently about 0.3C above my calculations.

Originally Posted by: Caz

Thank GW!    I was wondering what your estimate was.  

Looks like I’ve gone way too high this month!  Too much wishful thinking and memories of last year!   

I fell into that trap as well because I was looking at the fact that recent months have tended to be warmer in the end, than what they had been expected to be and so, I felt that going for a warm value as my estimate would be a safe bet as a result.

However, that has ended up not being the case with this month and because of that, going for that warmer value in order to try to be on the safe side has ended up being quite a big mistake in itself on this occasion.

In fact, that on this occasion is the equivalent in recent months of going for a colder than average month overall, only to find that it has actually been much warmer than average in the end.

This shows that you just can't win with these things, sometimes. In fact, it's just Sod's Law that the weather all often does the exact opposite of what I actually want it to do which is shown during the winter in particular, when it tends to be much warmer than what I would like it to be. By following that same philosophy, it would just be like the thing if we had now entered the time of year when it is now more likely to be colder than average, now that we are about to go into our summer.

Edited by user 19 May 2019 13:06:01(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Met Office Hadley          10.03c.      Anomaly     -0.4c.  Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                       9.99c        Anomaly     -1.42c

Netweather                    10.4c        Anomaly     -0.91c

Mean of my 10              10.94c.     Difference     -1.08c.

Met Office Hadley          10.5c.      Anomaly     -0.2c.  Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                       10.20c     Anomaly     -1.20c

Netweather                    10.69c     Anomaly     -0.62c.

Mean of my 10 stations   11.02c.    Anomaly     -1.0c.    

Edited by user 22 May 2019 17:23:01(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman

Met Office Hadley         10.06c.     Anomaly       -0.2cc. Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                      10.40c      Anomaly       -1.00c

Netweather                   10.83c      Anomaly       -0.48c

Man of my 10 stations    11.56c.    Difference     -0.46c.

10.6?

This late in the month, despite some warmth of late, it looks as if my figure was way too high. Surprising it's so low still though, with our double digit nights and 21C days; but then- we're not in the CET triangle.

Originally Posted by: Caz

Yesterday I started to post that we’d had 21c in the day but only single figures at night.  Then my system shut down so I gave up!   However, last night’s low was 11.2c. 

We’re not in the CET area either though and like you, I’ve gone way too high with my guess.  

Unfortunately it's looking a lot cooler next week. Although Pershore and Rothamsted look likely to hold up reasonably well, I think Stonyhurst will bring the averages down. Definitely looking like a sub 11.5 month to me now. 

The weather has been cracking recently so I’m also surprised it’s still so low. After the lousy weather earlier in the month it’s been good.