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Offline Gandalf The White  
#81 Posted : 26 October 2019 13:09:47(UTC)
Gandalf The White

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 39,514
Man

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 Go to Quoted Post

Past last year's spotless total

 

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 23 days
2019 total: 222 days (74%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Interesting, thanks.

On the current percentage we're on track to be around the 260-270 figure, in line with the bottom of the last cycle.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E

Online Roger Parsons  
#82 Posted : 26 October 2019 13:33:07(UTC)
Roger Parsons

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Joined: 23/11/2008(UTC)
Posts: 2,234
Man
Location: Lincolnshire

SpaceWeather's take on this. Solar Minimum piece on:
https://spaceweather.com/


Roger

RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

No county (Lincolnshire) has better churches and worse houses. The poorer sort of people wash their clothes with hog's dung, and burn dried cow's dung for want of better fuel; whence comes the Lincolnshire proverb: "Where the hogs shite soap and the cows shite fire".

Curiosities of Great Britain (c.1780)

Online Roger Parsons  
#83 Posted : 10 November 2019 14:58:44(UTC)
Roger Parsons

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 23/11/2008(UTC)
Posts: 2,234
Man
Location: Lincolnshire

Planning to watch the Transit of Mercury on the 11th November?

If you are going to try to observe the transit of Mercury you will know not to look at the Sun directly.
Use a professional-standard solar filter on your optics.
See:
https://www.skyatnightmagazine.com/advice/skills/transit-mercury-11-november-2019-what-how-see/


You can watch safely online via:
https://www.virtualtelescope.eu/webtv/


Roger


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

No county (Lincolnshire) has better churches and worse houses. The poorer sort of people wash their clothes with hog's dung, and burn dried cow's dung for want of better fuel; whence comes the Lincolnshire proverb: "Where the hogs shite soap and the cows shite fire".

Curiosities of Great Britain (c.1780)

Offline Gandalf The White  
#84 Posted : 10 November 2019 17:12:40(UTC)
Gandalf The White

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 39,514
Man

Spotless Days

Current Stretch: 7 days

2019 total: 235 days (75%)

2018 total: 221 days (61%)

2017 total: 104 days (28%)

2016 total: 32 days (9%)

2015 total: 0 days (0%)

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)

2013 total: 0 days (0%)

2012 total: 0 days (0%)

2011 total: 2 days (<1%)

2010 total: 51 days (14%)

2009 total: 260 days (71%)

2008 total: 268 days (73%)

2007 total: 152 days (42%)

2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 10 Nov 2019

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E

Online Roger Parsons  
#85 Posted : 10 November 2019 20:18:21(UTC)
Roger Parsons

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 23/11/2008(UTC)
Posts: 2,234
Man
Location: Lincolnshire

Yes - it's very interesting, Gandalf. I wonder if you read the following Spaceweather piece last week:

"SIGNS OF LIFE FROM THE NEXT SOLAR CYCLE: The sun is currently in the pits of a century-class Solar Minimum. However, the quiet won't last forever. This week, a sunspot from new Solar Cycle 25 appeared on the sun and unleashed a minor solar flare. These are signs that Solar Cycle 25 is sputtering to life, heralding a new Solar Max in the years ahead. "

See:

https://spaceweather.com/

Roger

RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

No county (Lincolnshire) has better churches and worse houses. The poorer sort of people wash their clothes with hog's dung, and burn dried cow's dung for want of better fuel; whence comes the Lincolnshire proverb: "Where the hogs shite soap and the cows shite fire".

Curiosities of Great Britain (c.1780)

Offline Gandalf The White  
#86 Posted : 11 November 2019 17:52:42(UTC)
Gandalf The White

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 39,514
Man

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons Go to Quoted Post
Yes - it's very interesting, Gandalf. I wonder if you read the following Spaceweather piece last week:
"SIGNS OF LIFE FROM THE NEXT SOLAR CYCLE: The sun is currently in the pits of a century-class Solar Minimum. However, the quiet won't last forever. This week, a sunspot from new Solar Cycle 25 appeared on the sun and unleashed a minor solar flare. These are signs that Solar Cycle 25 is sputtering to life, heralding a new Solar Max in the years ahead. "
See:
https://spaceweather.com/

Roger

No, I missed that - but we're at the bottom of the current cycle so, with a typical 11-year gap between peaks/troughs, we should be seeing the birth of the next cycle.  IIRC there's a lag between solar minimum and the impact on northern hemisphere weather patterns: SC24 started in 2008. Although the peak was markedly lower than 23 the trough doesn't look much different.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E

Online Roger Parsons  
#87 Posted : 11 November 2019 18:05:45(UTC)
Roger Parsons

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 23/11/2008(UTC)
Posts: 2,234
Man
Location: Lincolnshire

Evening Gandalf.

I wasted a bit of time trying to see the transit today but it was spoiled by cloud - could not even pick out the current batch of sunspots.

I watched the Mercury transit with the same equipment and it was OK.

Watched the 2 Venus transits too and they were easy.

Reassured to discover the on-line telescope I was recommended had identical disappointments.

Roger

RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

No county (Lincolnshire) has better churches and worse houses. The poorer sort of people wash their clothes with hog's dung, and burn dried cow's dung for want of better fuel; whence comes the Lincolnshire proverb: "Where the hogs shite soap and the cows shite fire".

Curiosities of Great Britain (c.1780)

Offline Jim_AFCB  
#88 Posted : 01 December 2019 10:24:15(UTC)
Jim_AFCB

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 532

Well.. here we are, 2 years and 4 months since the first Cycle 24 spots began to appear, and the cycle is still yet to pick up. We are still seeing spots from the new cycle with increasing frequency, but sunspot and solar flux indices remain low. The last three months or so has seen the lowest solar flux indices of this minimum, and as things stand, the minimum will now be 2nd perhaps third quarter of 2019.

Solar flux has lifted from the mid 60s seen across a good part of late summer/early autumn, to around the 70 mark in recent weeks.

I would have expected more activity than this by now, given the length of time since the first C25 spots, however the wait goes on.

Some have suggested that a Grand Minimum is underway, but the strength of the polar magnetic fields still suggest Cycle 25 will be around the same or perhaps a little stronger than Cycle 24.

Jim, Bournemouth, Dorset. Home of the mighty Cherries

Bournemouth Weather Onine - Click here.

Offline Maunder Minimum  
#89 Posted : 04 December 2019 08:16:15(UTC)
Maunder Minimum

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 08/09/2007(UTC)
Posts: 35,000
Man
Location: Copenhagen (work) and West Worcestershire (home)

POLAR STRATOSPHERIC CLOUDS SPREAD TO THE UK: This week's outbreak of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) has just gotten bigger. Yesterday, the colorful clouds spread south from the Arctic Circle to the UK. Alan C. Tough photographed them on Dec. 3rd  from Elgin, Moray, Scotland:

https://www.spaceweather.com/

 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

New world order coming.
Offline four  
#90 Posted : 04 December 2019 08:48:57(UTC)
four

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 19,778
Location: N.Y.Moors

What are we looking for with those, he used f.32 and 1/250th which suggests something very bright near the sun?

Offline KevBrads1  
#91 Posted : 07 December 2019 18:48:24(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,837
Location: Irlam

Should overtake the number of spotless days in 2009

Spotless Days

Current Stretch: 23 days

2019 total: 260 days (76%)

2018 total: 221 days (61%)

2017 total: 104 days (28%)

2016 total: 32 days (9%)

2015 total: 0 days (0%)

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)

2013 total: 0 days (0%)

2012 total: 0 days (0%)

2011 total: 2 days (<1%)

2010 total: 51 days (14%)

2009 total: 260 days (71%)

2008 total: 268 days (73%)

2007 total: 152 days (42%)

2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline KevBrads1  
#92 Posted : 08 December 2019 08:55:17(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,837
Location: Irlam

Passed the 2009 figure
Spotless Days
2019 total: 261 days (76%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline Gandalf The White  
#93 Posted : 08 December 2019 09:29:12(UTC)
Gandalf The White

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 39,514
Man

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 Go to Quoted Post

Passed the 2009 figure
Spotless Days
2019 total: 261 days (76%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)

If we maintain the average for this year we could be close to 280.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E

Offline KevBrads1  
#94 Posted : 16 December 2019 06:08:16(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,837
Location: Irlam

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 33 days
2019 total: 270 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline ozone_aurora  
#95 Posted : 17 December 2019 09:57:26(UTC)
ozone_aurora

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 632
Location: Lowestoft

When is Solar Cycle 25 supposed to begin?

Offline Jim_AFCB  
#96 Posted : 28 December 2019 20:14:41(UTC)
Jim_AFCB

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 532

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora Go to Quoted Post

When is Solar Cycle 25 supposed to begin?

Short answer is "how long is a piece of string?!"

A more detailed answer follows......

Statistically, and officially, Cycle 24 will end and Cycle 25 will begin when the 12-month mean sunsput number centred on that date stops falling, and begins to rise.

We won't know that date for sure until probably 12 months or so later, when an additional 6 month's data makes it clear that Cycle 25 is on the rise.

Currenly, with four days to go till the end of the month, the 12 month smoothed susnspot number will be about 3.7 for the year ending at the end of December (and therefore centred on June 2019). If we see an uptick in solar activity starting in January, then is it possible, maybe probable, that the smoother figure for June 2019  will mark solar minimum, but as already explained above, it would be several more months before we can be sure.

This is exacerbated by a small hump in solar activity from spots from the old cycle in early-mid Spring 2019, the statistical consequence may be to make any rise in thre smoothed number initially very slow. If activity does not take off enough before the late spring, then this will likely further delay official minimum until 4th quarter of 2019.

 

Current solar activity: after the aforementioned hump in activity last spring, monthly sunspot numbers and solar flux values fell to very low levels through summer and much of autumn, before recovering in December as we saw an increase in Cycle 25 regions, including the two most significant sunspot regions of Cycle 25 so far just before Christmas.

We have actually been seeing Cycle 25 spots since the late summer of 2017 as I mentioned earlier in this thread. I would have expected to see a recovery in overall solar activity before now, as generally the first spots of a new cycle appear about a year before solar minimum, but that has not been the case this time round.

However, the current small but marked uptick in solar activity has been virtually all from Cycle 25 regions, so it really is only  a matter of time before we can say that the new cycle is at last underway.

 

Jim, Bournemouth, Dorset. Home of the mighty Cherries

Bournemouth Weather Onine - Click here.

Online Lionel Hutz  
#97 Posted : 29 December 2019 02:11:39(UTC)
Lionel Hutz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,863
Man
Ireland

Forgive me if this question has been answered before, but where does this cycle stand compared to previous cycles? Is it "worse" than normal? By that I mean, how unusual it it to have a year with upwards of 277 spotless days? Is this typical at this part of the cycle?
Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL

Offline Jim_AFCB  
#98 Posted : 29 December 2019 09:58:20(UTC)
Jim_AFCB

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 532

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz Go to Quoted Post
Forgive me if this question has been answered before, but where does this cycle stand compared to previous cycles? Is it "worse" than normal? By that I mean, how unusual it it to have a year with upwards of 277 spotless days? Is this typical at this part of the cycle?

 

Low cycles (as Cycle 24 was.. the lowest for about a century) tend to have longer, deeper minima... so 277 spotless days in a year would not be unexpected.

The minimum leading into Cycle 24 was also long and deep, with a similar number of spotless days to this one.

If solar minimum end up being June 2019, the number of spotless days in a calendar year would probably be maximised.. if that makes sense.

Jim, Bournemouth, Dorset. Home of the mighty Cherries

Bournemouth Weather Onine - Click here.

Online Lionel Hutz  
#99 Posted : 29 December 2019 10:07:27(UTC)
Lionel Hutz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,863
Man
Ireland

Originally Posted by: Jim_AFCB Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Low cycles (as Cycle 24 was.. the lowest for about a century) tend to have longer, deeper minima... so 277 spotless days in a year would not be unexpected.

The minimum leading into Cycle 24 was also long and deep, with a similar number of spotless days to this one.

If solar minimum end up being June 2019, the number of spotless days in a calendar year would probably be maximised.. if that makes sense.

So what we're seeing is "worse" than what is usually seen overall but not unexpected given that the last minimum was long and deep also?

Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL

Offline Jim_AFCB  
#100 Posted : 29 December 2019 11:50:45(UTC)
Jim_AFCB

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 532

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz Go to Quoted Post

 

So what we're seeing is "worse" than what is usually seen overall but not unexpected given that the last minimum was long and deep also?

 

Yes.. and a minimum between 2 low maxima as well.

As mentioned earlier in this thread... there is a good webpage on the subject of this solar minimum in comparison to others - it is here http://www.sidc.be/silso/spotless

Jim, Bournemouth, Dorset. Home of the mighty Cherries

Bournemouth Weather Onine - Click here.

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