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Offline ARTzeman  
#101 Posted : 16 October 2017 11:41:30(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,065
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Metcheck                      13.40c.            Anomaly          2.89c. 

Netweather                   13.73c.            Anomaly          3.34c.

Peasedown St John.      14.0c.             Anomaly           3.4c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Online redmoons  
#102 Posted : 16 October 2017 12:05:46(UTC)
redmoons

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,461
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Watford

In regards to the Met Office CET, I got this reply from the Met Office.

This is not an operational system so no guarantees this will be kept 100% up to date. We're upgrading and refreshing the CET system and so a new improved set of HadCET web-pages should be in operation by next year. Hope this helps!

Though they say this is not an operational system, it is a public service and they are custodians of the dataset which they should provide. How do you think I should reply?

Andrew,

Watford

ASL 35m

Blog - http://www.andrewlalchan.com | Live weather - http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk

Offline Global Warming  
#103 Posted : 16 October 2017 12:29:33(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,481
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

I also had a reply this morning which is a bit more helpful than the one you got. Mine came from the National Climate Information Centre.

The automatic CET system has a technical problem at the moment which is why there are no updates at present. Current estimate for a repair is later this week or possibly early next week. So we will have to continue being patient.

On the wider point about an upgrade to the extent of data provided, this work was completed earlier in the year. Before the extra data is made public they intend to publish a peer reviewed article in a scientific journal to ensure the data and methodology is properly scrutinised and quality checked before being made available to the public. This will take some time so it will be well into 2018 before we start to see any changes.

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Hungry Tiger  
#104 Posted : 16 October 2017 13:24:55(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,253
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

I also had a reply this morning which is a bit more helpful than the one you got. Mine came from the National Climate Information Centre.

The automatic CET system has a technical problem at the moment which is why there are no updates at present. Current estimate for a repair is later this week or possibly early next week. So we will have to continue being patient.

On the wider point about an upgrade to the extent of data provided, this work was completed earlier in the year. Before the extra data is made public they intend to publish a peer reviewed article in a scientific journal to ensure the data and methodology is properly scrutinised and quality checked before being made available to the public. This will take some time so it will be well into 2018 before we start to see any changes.

Thanks Simon for that useful information.

Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.

Offline ARTzeman  
#105 Posted : 16 October 2017 13:36:27(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,065
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley           13.7c.          Anomaly         2.1c.      Provisional  to 15th...      

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Online redmoons  
#106 Posted : 16 October 2017 13:41:12(UTC)
redmoons

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,461
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Watford

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

I also had a reply this morning which is a bit more helpful than the one you got. Mine came from the National Climate Information Centre.

The automatic CET system has a technical problem at the moment which is why there are no updates at present. Current estimate for a repair is later this week or possibly early next week. So we will have to continue being patient.

On the wider point about an upgrade to the extent of data provided, this work was completed earlier in the year. Before the extra data is made public they intend to publish a peer reviewed article in a scientific journal to ensure the data and methodology is properly scrutinised and quality checked before being made available to the public. This will take some time so it will be well into 2018 before we start to see any changes.

Cheers Simon, technical problem is better than I got and definitely more helpful. Looks like it worked as they have updated the page now 

Andrew,

Watford

ASL 35m

Blog - http://www.andrewlalchan.com | Live weather - http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk

Offline Global Warming  
#107 Posted : 16 October 2017 14:05:31(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,481
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Yes just had a follow up email to say problem resolved. So hopefully the daily updates will now resume

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Bertwhistle  
#108 Posted : 16 October 2017 18:15:57(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,400
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley           13.7c.          Anomaly         2.1c.      Provisional  to 15th...      

Well done to all those who posted a comment, contacted the MetO, etc. I'm sure, to varying degrees, all of this helped to bring about the miracle that was the end of the technical problem.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Bertwhistle  
#109 Posted : 16 October 2017 18:17:40(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,400
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: redmoons Go to Quoted Post

In regards to the Met Office CET, I got this reply from the Met Office.

This is not an operational system so no guarantees this will be kept 100% up to date. We're upgrading and refreshing the CET system and so a new improved set of HadCET web-pages should be in operation by next year. Hope this helps!

Though they say this is not an operational system, it is a public service and they are custodians of the dataset which they should provide. How do you think I should reply?

The only way to deal with that would be to file a FOI request daily; that would certainly jerk things into action but, sadly, that process is too time-consuming for all but the most tenacious!

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Online lanky  
#110 Posted : 17 October 2017 09:12:58(UTC)
lanky

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,182
Man

Now that the October CET has resumed, I noticed from the provisional data for the Daily Minimum temperatures that the overnight Min for October 14th was 15.7C

If this is confirmed I believe this is a record high for any October daily Min

It would be fairly humid for a warm July night

Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Offline Stormchaser  
#111 Posted : 17 October 2017 09:30:53(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,956
Man
Location: West Hants

Comparing where we are now with the end of September model signals (from ten sources, no less), it seems we have as little hope as ever using computers to predict the way the month ahead will evolve an anything below a very broad scale - one too broad to be effective for a slice of the hemisphere as narrow as that in which we reside.

A sad truth in one light, but in another, it keeps things more entertaining as we watch things unfold!  

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Stormchaser  
#112 Posted : 17 October 2017 12:21:02(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,956
Man
Location: West Hants

By locking-in a broad trough west of Iberia in the 8-16 day range and with even better orientation than the 00z for pumping warm air over to us from well south, the GFS 06z raw numbers lead to a final CET estimate of 13.1 to 13.6*C. That's roughly 2.5 to 3.0*C above the LTA!

ECM takes a more high-pressure dominated approach to achieving flows from the south, so it may not be quite so balmy, indeed surely by night it must be cooler (not got time to examine that US site for details).

Still - odds are shortening on October coming in at least 2*C above the LTA. It even has a shot at beating the September CET.

 

This begs the question - how often historically has the October CET been higher than the September CET? 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline ARTzeman  
#113 Posted : 17 October 2017 12:34:10(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,065
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley              13.8c.       Anomaly       2.3c.  Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                           13.47c.     Anomaly       2.96c.

Netweather                        13.89c.     Anomaly       3.5c.

Peasedown St John         14.0c.       Anomaly       3.4c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#114 Posted : 17 October 2017 18:23:46(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 122
United Kingdom
Location: Berkhamsted, Herts

So could we beat the 2001 record for the warmest October ever? October was very close to the September average that year.

Offline Bertwhistle  
#115 Posted : 17 October 2017 19:37:54(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,400
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

By locking-in a broad trough west of Iberia in the 8-16 day range and with even better orientation than the 00z for pumping warm air over to us from well south, the GFS 06z raw numbers lead to a final CET estimate of 13.1 to 13.6*C. That's roughly 2.5 to 3.0*C above the LTA!

ECM takes a more high-pressure dominated approach to achieving flows from the south, so it may not be quite so balmy, indeed surely by night it must be cooler (not got time to examine that US site for details).

Still - odds are shortening on October coming in at least 2*C above the LTA. It even has a shot at beating the September CET.

 

This begs the question - how often historically has the October CET been higher than the September CET? 

1986 came fairly close, along with 2001 as was mentioned; but I had to scroll back to 1807 to actually get one. October was almost a degree warmer than a very cold September, and had it not been for October, the 4 month period from Sep to Dec could have been in the chiller. November was bitterly cold. A fascinating autumn- I wonder if there are any articles about it?

One of the problems I found going back through the 20th century was that almost every really cool Sep was followed by a cold, or at best near average October. Then through the 19th C there were barely any 10C + Octobers at all. I think the LT average for the autumn months drops steeply month by month compared with the rise in spring.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline ARTzeman  
#116 Posted : 18 October 2017 11:18:11(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,065
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley             13.8c.        Anomaly     2.8c.  Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                          13.35c.      Anomaly     2.84c.

Netweather                       13.8c.        Anomaly     3.41c.

Peasedown St John        13.8c.       Anomaly      3.2c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Stormchaser  
#117 Posted : 18 October 2017 19:48:55(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,956
Man
Location: West Hants

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

1986 came fairly close, along with 2001 as was mentioned; but I had to scroll back to 1807 to actually get one. October was almost a degree warmer than a very cold September, and had it not been for October, the 4 month period from Sep to Dec could have been in the chiller. November was bitterly cold. A fascinating autumn- I wonder if there are any articles about it?

One of the problems I found going back through the 20th century was that almost every really cool Sep was followed by a cold, or at best near average October. Then through the 19th C there were barely any 10C + Octobers at all. I think the LT average for the autumn months drops steeply month by month compared with the rise in spring.

Thanks for this - some very interesting statistics which suggest we're seeing the potential for a truly exceptional event should it come together. GFS 12z was in the right ballpark for this but ECM 12z both directed the peak warmth west of the UK and introduced anticyclonic conditions to a great enough extent for the overnight minimums to drop away quite a bit. So it's far from sorted yet .

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline ARTzeman  
#118 Posted : 19 October 2017 10:51:27(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,065
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley            13.6c.         Anomaly       2.2c. Provisional to 18th. 

Metcheck                         13.28c.       Anomaly       2.77c.

Netweather                      13.68c.       Anomaly       3.29c.

Peasedown St John             13.7c.        Anomaly       3.1c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#119 Posted : 19 October 2017 13:17:13(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,253
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley            13.6c.         Anomaly       2.2c. Provisional to 18th. 

Metcheck                         13.28c.       Anomaly       2.77c.

Netweather                      13.68c.       Anomaly       3.29c.

Peasedown St John             13.7c.        Anomaly       3.1c.

Thats amazing for this time of the month.

 

Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#120 Posted : 19 October 2017 13:17:41(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,253
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Great to see Hadley up and running.

 

Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.

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