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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 28 February 2016 11:42:03(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,282

Apologies for being a bit late with this. Here is the March thread. Spring is now upon us but will the weather be in a Springlike mood?

Please place your CET predictions in this thread. Deadline for entries without incurring any penalty is 23:59 on Monday evening (29th). Entries will be accepted until 23:59 on the 2nd.

March historic data summary

Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.

Long run averages:
1971-2000: 6.3C
1981-2010: 6.6C
1996-2015: 6.6C

March has generally been a warm month in recent times. The CET has reached 7C or more 11 times in the last 19 years but only twice in the last 6 years. March 2013 was of course very cold at just 2.7C. The previous year, 2012 was very mild at 8.3C. 

Here is a chart of the March CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average

Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.

GEFS (850 and 2m temps)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

Lots of scatter by the end of the run - could stay cool or turn warmer

 

ECM
https://meteoijsselmuiden.nl/knmipluim

Gradually warming up as we approach mid month

Met office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/t/i/A3_plots-temp-MAM_v1.pdf

Contingency planners forecast suggests a fairly average March with colder and warmer spells largely cancelling each other out.

Pattern matching (JFF)Here is a first look at the February CET.
As mentioned recently in the February thread, most March's that followed a mild winter were also mild. If we look at years since 1950 where December, January and February were all more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean then all bar one of the following March's were also very mild:

1957 9.2C (warmest March ever)
1989 7.5C
1995 5.6C
1998 7.9C
2007 7.2C
2014 7.6C

However all of these years saw the February CET well above 5C. This year February has been the coldest of the winter months and the current outlook for the first part of March is relatively cool. So the first half of March could well be below average but I suspect the second half may be much warmer. So maybe we will see 7C or more this year as well? 

Here is a first look at the March CET

A mild first day but generally chilly over the first 10-12 days.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by moderator 29 April 2016 18:55:06(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl

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Offline Gavin D  
#2 Posted : 28 February 2016 11:45:10(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 11,988
Man
United Kingdom

5.9c for me please
Online ARTzeman  
#3 Posted : 28 February 2016 11:49:37(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,197
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

6.0c. For me please.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Weathermac  
#4 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:00:25(UTC)
Weathermac

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,461
Location: Bedworth Warwickshire

6.2c cet for me please.
Online Windy Willow  
#5 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:03:31(UTC)
Windy Willow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 519
Woman
United Kingdom
Location: NW Kent 119.377 m /391.658 feet asl

5.7 please

119.377 m /391.658 feet asl

NW Kent

Offline Bertwhistle  
#6 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:08:11(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,143
Location: Central Southern England

Interesting that up to the 10th the 1971-2000 mean is higher than the 1981-2010, before the lines cross.

March this year will be 5.2C says I.

Thanks again GW and for the annual CET challenge as well.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Online lanky  
#7 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:13:23(UTC)
lanky

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,845
Man

6.0C for me please

Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Offline Snow Hoper  
#8 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:14:29(UTC)
Snow Hoper

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 38,063
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Thorndon, Suffolk

6.37c thanks.

By the time you realise your parents were right, your kids already think that you're wrong!

Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.

Work: Around Bury St Edmunds.

Offline Essan  
#9 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:29:15(UTC)
Essan

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 30,521
Antarctica
Location: Albion

6.1c please

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News

Offline Deep Powder  
#10 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:32:04(UTC)
Deep Powder

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,435
United Kingdom
Location: Near Leatherhead 100masl

5.8c for me please! Thanks GW........
Near Leatherhead 100masl

Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!

Offline moomin75  
#11 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:32:53(UTC)
moomin75

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 5,313

I think after a cool start we will be in for another mild March so I will guess 7.5c please.
Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Offline Roonie  
#12 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:35:52(UTC)
Roonie

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,374
Man
Location: North Worcestershire

5.76 please. :)
Still Lurking.......

North Worcestershire

Offline springsunshine  
#13 Posted : 28 February 2016 15:32:15(UTC)
springsunshine

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bournemouth

The start of a long period of below average temps has begun so I`ll go for 4.8c

Offline Gusty  
#14 Posted : 28 February 2016 15:34:48(UTC)
Gusty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 14,579
Man
Location: Folkestone

6.4c please. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground...m/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Offline Hippydave  
#15 Posted : 28 February 2016 15:35:02(UTC)
Hippydave

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 1,193
Location: Tunbridge Wells

I'll go with 5.9c please  - chilly but not noticeably so I reckon 

Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: East Grinstead

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#16 Posted : 28 February 2016 16:40:24(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,107
Location: South Cambridgeshire

I'll go for

6.0C

Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.

Offline Norwich Nick  
#17 Posted : 28 February 2016 17:14:05(UTC)
Norwich Nick

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 33
United Kingdom
Location: Norwich

6.9C for me please
Online Sussex snow magnet  
#18 Posted : 28 February 2016 17:16:28(UTC)
Sussex snow magnet

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 172
Man
Location: Sussex

5.8 please
Online Ally Pally Snowman  
#19 Posted : 28 February 2016 17:27:15(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 6,184
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

7.05c please

 

 

Offline ozone_aurora  
#20 Posted : 28 February 2016 20:02:58(UTC)
ozone_aurora

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 754
Location: Lowestoft

I'm going for a chilly 4.6 C 

Edited by user 28 February 2016 20:06:40(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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