Welcome Guest! To enable all features please Login. New Registrations are disabled.

Notification

Icon
Error

8 Pages123>»
Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 28 February 2016 11:42:03(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,123

Apologies for being a bit late with this. Here is the March thread. Spring is now upon us but will the weather be in a Springlike mood?

Please place your CET predictions in this thread. Deadline for entries without incurring any penalty is 23:59 on Monday evening (29th). Entries will be accepted until 23:59 on the 2nd.

March historic data summary

Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.

Long run averages:
1971-2000: 6.3C
1981-2010: 6.6C
1996-2015: 6.6C

March has generally been a warm month in recent times. The CET has reached 7C or more 11 times in the last 19 years but only twice in the last 6 years. March 2013 was of course very cold at just 2.7C. The previous year, 2012 was very mild at 8.3C. 

Here is a chart of the March CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average

Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.

GEFS (850 and 2m temps)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

Lots of scatter by the end of the run - could stay cool or turn warmer

 

ECM
https://meteoijsselmuiden.nl/knmipluim

Gradually warming up as we approach mid month

Met office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/t/i/A3_plots-temp-MAM_v1.pdf

Contingency planners forecast suggests a fairly average March with colder and warmer spells largely cancelling each other out.

Pattern matching (JFF)Here is a first look at the February CET.
As mentioned recently in the February thread, most March's that followed a mild winter were also mild. If we look at years since 1950 where December, January and February were all more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean then all bar one of the following March's were also very mild:

1957 9.2C (warmest March ever)
1989 7.5C
1995 5.6C
1998 7.9C
2007 7.2C
2014 7.6C

However all of these years saw the February CET well above 5C. This year February has been the coldest of the winter months and the current outlook for the first part of March is relatively cool. So the first half of March could well be below average but I suspect the second half may be much warmer. So maybe we will see 7C or more this year as well? 

Here is a first look at the March CET

A mild first day but generally chilly over the first 10-12 days.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by moderator 29 April 2016 18:55:06(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl

Wanna join the discussion?! Login to your TheWeatherOutlook forum account. New Registrations are disabled.

Offline Gavin D  
#2 Posted : 28 February 2016 11:45:10(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 7,931
Man
United Kingdom

5.9c for me please
Offline ARTzeman  
#3 Posted : 28 February 2016 11:49:37(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,737
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

6.0c. For me please.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Weathermac  
#4 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:00:25(UTC)
Weathermac

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,421
Location: Bedworth Warwickshire

6.2c cet for me please.
Offline Windy Willow  
#5 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:03:31(UTC)
Windy Willow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 461
Woman
United Kingdom
Location: NW Kent 119.377 m /391.658 feet asl

5.7 please

119.377 m /391.658 feet asl

NW Kent

Offline Bertwhistle  
#6 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:08:11(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,664
Location: Central Southern England

Interesting that up to the 10th the 1971-2000 mean is higher than the 1981-2010, before the lines cross.

March this year will be 5.2C says I.

Thanks again GW and for the annual CET challenge as well.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline lanky  
#7 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:13:23(UTC)
lanky

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,508
Man

6.0C for me please

Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Offline Snow Hoper  
#8 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:14:29(UTC)
Snow Hoper

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 38,053
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Thorndon, Suffolk

6.37c thanks.

By the time you realise your parents were right, your kids already think that you're wrong!

Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.

Work: Around Bury St Edmunds.

Offline Essan  
#9 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:29:15(UTC)
Essan

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 29,893
Antarctica
Location: Albion

6.1c please

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women and there are families. And no governments can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It is our duty to look after ourselves and then, also, to look after our neighbours - M Thatcher.

Weather & Earth Science News

Cape Wrath and Beyond - My blog for the Cape Wrath Trail 2019 charity walk.

Offline Deep Powder  
#10 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:32:04(UTC)
Deep Powder

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,433
United Kingdom
Location: Near Leatherhead 100masl

5.8c for me please! Thanks GW........
Near Leatherhead 100masl

Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!

Offline moomin75  
#11 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:32:53(UTC)
moomin75

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 5,056

I think after a cool start we will be in for another mild March so I will guess 7.5c please.
Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Online Roonie  
#12 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:35:52(UTC)
Roonie

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,252
Man
Location: North Worcestershire

5.76 please. :)
Still Lurking.......

North Worcestershire

Offline springsunshine  
#13 Posted : 28 February 2016 15:32:15(UTC)
springsunshine

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,163
Location: Bournemouth

The start of a long period of below average temps has begun so I`ll go for 4.8c

Offline Gusty  
#14 Posted : 28 February 2016 15:34:48(UTC)
Gusty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 14,263
Man
Location: Folkestone

6.4c please. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Offline Hippydave  
#15 Posted : 28 February 2016 15:35:02(UTC)
Hippydave

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 1,061
Location: Tunbridge Wells

I'll go with 5.9c please  - chilly but not noticeably so I reckon 

Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: East Grinstead

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#16 Posted : 28 February 2016 16:40:24(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,756
Location: South Cambridgeshire

I'll go for

6.0C

Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93metres asl.

Offline Norwich Nick  
#17 Posted : 28 February 2016 17:14:05(UTC)
Norwich Nick

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 33
United Kingdom
Location: Norwich

6.9C for me please
Offline Sussex snow magnet  
#18 Posted : 28 February 2016 17:16:28(UTC)
Sussex snow magnet

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 163
Man
Location: Sussex

5.8 please
Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#19 Posted : 28 February 2016 17:27:15(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,601
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

7.05c please

 

 

Offline ozone_aurora  
#20 Posted : 28 February 2016 20:02:58(UTC)
ozone_aurora

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 522
Location: Lowestoft

I'm going for a chilly 4.6 C 

Edited by user 28 February 2016 20:06:40(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Users browsing this topic
Similar Topics
March CET watch (Weather)
by Global Warming 26/02/2017 22:41:31(UTC)
March CET watch (Weather)
by Global Warming 25/02/2015 22:48:36(UTC)
March CET watch (TWO Classic Threads Forum.)
by Global Warming 25/02/2014 22:11:38(UTC)
March CET watch (TWO Classic Threads Forum.)
by Global Warming 24/02/2013 22:14:19(UTC)
March CET watch (TWO Classic Threads Forum.)
by Global Warming 25/02/2012 17:00:20(UTC)
March CET watch (Weather)
by Global Warming 22/02/2011 21:27:18(UTC)
8 Pages123>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Code of conduct

× FORUM Settings Posting League USER PHOTOS Sky Eye Camera Sky Eye Live Sky Eye Gallery MODEL CHARTS Arome Arpege ECM ECM ENS GEM GEFS GFS HIRLAM Icon Met Office UM Fax CFS GFSP