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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 28 February 2016 11:42:03(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,552
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Apologies for being a bit late with this. Here is the March thread. Spring is now upon us but will the weather be in a Springlike mood?

Please place your CET predictions in this thread. Deadline for entries without incurring any penalty is 23:59 on Monday evening (29th). Entries will be accepted until 23:59 on the 2nd.

March historic data summary

Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.

Long run averages:
1971-2000: 6.3C
1981-2010: 6.6C
1996-2015: 6.6C

March has generally been a warm month in recent times. The CET has reached 7C or more 11 times in the last 19 years but only twice in the last 6 years. March 2013 was of course very cold at just 2.7C. The previous year, 2012 was very mild at 8.3C. 

Here is a chart of the March CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average

Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.

GEFS (850 and 2m temps)

Lots of scatter by the end of the run - could stay cool or turn warmer



Gradually warming up as we approach mid month

Met office

Contingency planners forecast suggests a fairly average March with colder and warmer spells largely cancelling each other out.

Pattern matching (JFF)Here is a first look at the February CET.
As mentioned recently in the February thread, most March's that followed a mild winter were also mild. If we look at years since 1950 where December, January and February were all more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean then all bar one of the following March's were also very mild:

1957 9.2C (warmest March ever)
1989 7.5C
1995 5.6C
1998 7.9C
2007 7.2C
2014 7.6C

However all of these years saw the February CET well above 5C. This year February has been the coldest of the winter months and the current outlook for the first part of March is relatively cool. So the first half of March could well be below average but I suspect the second half may be much warmer. So maybe we will see 7C or more this year as well? 

Here is a first look at the March CET

A mild first day but generally chilly over the first 10-12 days.


Edited by moderator 29 April 2016 18:55:06(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

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Offline Gavin D  
#2 Posted : 28 February 2016 11:45:10(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 19,188
United Kingdom

5.9c for me please
Offline ARTzeman  
#3 Posted : 28 February 2016 11:49:37(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,461
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

6.0c. For me please.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Weathermac  
#4 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:00:25(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,497
Location: Bedworth Warwickshire

6.2c cet for me please.
Offline Windy Willow  
#5 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:03:31(UTC)
Windy Willow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 544
United Kingdom
Location: NW Kent 119.377 m /391.658 feet asl

5.7 please

119.377 m /391.658 feet asl

NW Kent

Offline Bertwhistle  
#6 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:08:11(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,446
Location: Central Southern England

Interesting that up to the 10th the 1971-2000 mean is higher than the 1981-2010, before the lines cross.

March this year will be 5.2C says I.

Thanks again GW and for the annual CET challenge as well.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline lanky  
#7 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:13:23(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,343

6.0C for me please


Richmond, Surrey

Online Snow Hoper  
#8 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:14:29(UTC)
Snow Hoper

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 38,344
United Kingdom
Location: Thorndon, Suffolk

6.37c thanks.

By the time you realise your parents were right, your kids already think that you're wrong!

Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.

Work: Around Bury St Edmunds.

Online Essan  
#9 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:29:15(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 31,290
Location: Albion

6.1c please


Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News

Offline Deep Powder  
#10 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:32:04(UTC)
Deep Powder

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,449
United Kingdom
Location: Near Leatherhead 100masl

5.8c for me please! Thanks GW........
Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)

Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!

Offline moomin75  
#11 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:32:53(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 5,561

I think after a cool start we will be in for another mild March so I will guess 7.5c please.
Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Offline Roonie  
#12 Posted : 28 February 2016 14:35:52(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,461
Location: North Worcestershire

5.76 please. :)
Still Lurking.......

North Worcestershire

Offline springsunshine  
#13 Posted : 28 February 2016 15:32:15(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,579
Location: Bournemouth

The start of a long period of below average temps has begun so I`ll go for 4.8c

Offline Gusty  
#14 Posted : 28 February 2016 15:34:48(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 14,976
Location: Folkestone

6.4c please. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue


Join Kent Weather on Facebook.


Offline Hippydave  
#15 Posted : 28 February 2016 15:35:02(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 1,488
Location: Tunbridge Wells

I'll go with 5.9c please  - chilly but not noticeably so I reckon 

Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: East Grinstead

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#16 Posted : 28 February 2016 16:40:24(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,303
Location: South Cambridgeshire

I'll go for


Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.

Offline Norwich Nick  
#17 Posted : 28 February 2016 17:14:05(UTC)
Norwich Nick

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 33
United Kingdom
Location: Norwich

6.9C for me please
Offline Sussex snow magnet  
#18 Posted : 28 February 2016 17:16:28(UTC)
Sussex snow magnet

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 204
Location: Sussex

5.8 please
Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#19 Posted : 28 February 2016 17:27:15(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 7,589
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

7.05c please



Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Offline ozone_aurora  
#20 Posted : 28 February 2016 20:02:58(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 972
Location: Lowestoft

I'm going for a chilly 4.6 C 

Edited by user 28 February 2016 20:06:40(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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