Well I always look at sea temperatures off the coast of Eastern Canada. They appear to be worse (i.e. above normal) than last year.

The form horse for me is unremitting Atlantic driven shite.

Not sure... but we have had a succession of summers where the northern blocking finally arrives and at the worst times (summer months) leading to extensive rainfall and cooler winds. Then Winter arrives and pressure falls to the north.

Last years issues were a cold Eastern seaboard and warm seas in the north west atlantic... this seems to be the same setup this year (so far - might change) With central eastern areas of US expected to bare the brunt of the US cold., however there seems to be a bit more hurricane activity which might mop this warmth up. in the Atlantic. We will see.

I suspect an average winter. with an average amount of Storms. average Frosts, average snowfall, mostly on hills, suspect later winter snowfalls for lower regions. (average)

If we get an average winter - i suspect we will see more northerly topplers. Which was the main snowfall contributer to the winters of 1990s-2000s We havent seen many of these for a few years now, i suspect we will see these a few more times this year. As in my experience this is much more common for the UK.

Also - interestingly as Brian G sometimes points out on his buzz - Cold winters tend to cluster together... I wonder if we are now out of that cluster period, and infact will reflect on the winters of 2008 til 2011 as the cluster that happened.

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My winter forecast will be guaranteeing that large parts of southern England do NOT see less snow than last winter. It's not often possible to offer such certainty in long range forecasting. 

i'd have thought that was a given as it's impossible to see less snow than last winters no snow

My winter forecast will be guaranteeing that large parts of southern England do NOT see less snow than last winter. It's not often possible to offer such certainty in long range forecasting. 

i'd have thought that was a given as it's impossible to see less snow than last winters no snow

Yes that was wht I meant.  Not one flake of snow fell here last winter.

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Not sure... but we have had a succession of summers where the northern blocking finally arrives and at the worst times (summer months) leading to extensive rainfall and cooler winds. Then Winter arrives and pressure falls to the north.

 

We did have a couple of winters where some really good wintry spells came from periods of northern blocking, which caused the Jet to buckle, at times in exactly the right place for us.

IMO, a very active Atlantic coupled with strong northerly blocking would be very interesting. A cold feed from the north and lows on a southerly track have been rather productive in the past in terms of snow

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I'll go for two in a row

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I for one don't mind threads like this, you can start a Summer 15 in Feb 2015 for all I care aslong as it gets discussion going amongst members on here.

It can be quiet at times so threads like this get people talking, and good for those like myself that don't have the knowledge to comment in the MO thread.

I really wouldn't be suprised if we get a cool Autumn which rules out an Indian Summer and then you bet your life as soon as Proper Winter starts it turns mild.

One thing I did enjoy last Winter was the odd ocassion standing outside our local pub with a pint in just a sweater..... rare as most the time needed a waterproof jacket lol .. The amount of times we got absolutely drenched going to and from the pub, but with the open fire going in there it made it cosy, plus gave us all an excuse to stay a bit longer, just incase the rain stopped etc

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I for one don't mind threads like this, you can start a Summer 15 in Feb 2015 for all I care aslong as it gets discussion going amongst members on here.

It can be quiet at times so threads like this get people talking, and good for those like myself that don't have the knowledge to comment in the MO thread.

I really wouldn't be suprised if we get a cool Autumn which rules out an Indian Summer and then you bet your life as soon as Proper Winter starts it turns mild.

One thing I did enjoy last Winter was the odd ocassion standing outside our local pub with a pint in just a sweater..... rare as most the time needed a waterproof jacket lol .. The amount of times we got absolutely drenched going to and from the pub, but with the open fire going in there it made it cosy, plus gave us all an excuse to stay a bit longer, just incase the rain stopped etc

But last Autumn was mild and looked at how that turned out, I think the only correlation I can find is Winter follows Autumn.

I don't want to make any sorts of predictions yet, it's still too early. It would be nice to see at least 1 lovely deep snow cover and then a solid freeze below -10C .... then the snow lasting for many days afterwards in the weak Winter sun, picture postcard then a reload of snow, rinse and repeat 

 

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Not had a proper Scandinavian high type winter for some years. The type where the main cold spells come via an easterly. Recent ones have either been mediocre (Jan 2010), short lived (Feb 09) or came at the start (late Nov 2010) or end (late Feb 05) of the season.

Last decent one in the heart of winter was late January 1996.

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We can't possibly forecast that far ahead and we even struggle to get it right beyond five days.  However, my gut feeling is that we're in another run of mild winters.

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Not had a proper Scandinavian high type winter for some years. The type where the main cold spells come via an easterly. Recent ones have either been mediocre (Jan 2010), short lived (Feb 09) or came at the start (late Nov 2010) or end (late Feb 05) of the season. Last decent one in the heart of winter was late January 1996.

 

Not too sure about shortlived.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzeZJUsT0UU  was a great event in the way it developed IMBY.  Though it didnt deliver huge amounts, it was just nice the way it caught me a bit by surprise.

 

I had spent the night out in manchester on the Saturday - knowing there was snow on the way for ~Tuesday.  Infact the snow showers arrived on the Sunday morning ~11am.  Took me totally by surprise.  Very dry ground let to a lovely dusting.  The snow was on and off for about 24 hrs.

 

 

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@ Gavin P

Just looking at your pre winter forecast using the Beijing model. the anommally you were looking at for 2014-15 looks alot more like the annomally we saw for last winter rather than a cold one. With LP heading out of the eastern seaboard and darting to the UK. Though like last year - could end up being another stella year for the scottish snow resorts.

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Not had a proper Scandinavian high type winter for some years. The type where the main cold spells come via an easterly. Recent ones have either been mediocre (Jan 2010), short lived (Feb 09) or came at the start (late Nov 2010) or end (late Feb 05) of the season. Last decent one in the heart of winter was late January 1996.

 

Jan through to late march 2013 produced the best Scandi high winter in a long time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Xmt1qgIQ24  was one such event, which if i recall correctly landed in the uk every Friday for about 6-7 weeks.

 

LPS were forced up and over, with slider break off lows interacting with the Scandi high and darting off to the Med.  Wales had 50cm of snowfall from one such event around the 21st March.

At one point I remember snowfalling every day for about 8 days on the wirral.  something which i dont recall happening before. 

 

 

 

 

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@ Gavin P Just looking at your pre winter forecast using the Beijing model. the anommally you were looking at for 2014-15 looks alot more like the annomally we saw for last winter rather than a cold one. With LP heading out of the eastern seaboard and darting to the UK. Though like last year - could end up being another stella year for the scottish snow resorts.

2014/2015 predicted anomaly is more like 2012/2013 than 2013/2014, I think.

Though keep in mind it's hadn't got the correct anomaly for 2013/2014 at this time.

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Not had a proper Scandinavian high type winter for some years. The type where the main cold spells come via an easterly. Recent ones have either been mediocre (Jan 2010), short lived (Feb 09) or came at the start (late Nov 2010) or end (late Feb 05) of the season. Last decent one in the heart of winter was late January 1996.

Jan through to late march 2013produced the best Scandi high winter in a long time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Xmt1qgIQ24  was one such event, which if i recall correctly landed in the uk every Friday for about 6-7 weeks.

LPS were forced up and over, with slider break off lows interacting with the Scandi high and darting off to the Med. Wales had 50cm of snowfall from one such event around the 21st March.
At one point I remember snowfalling every day for about 8 days on the wirral. something which i dont recall happening before.

Yes but what I meaning is this type. Not had a decent one in the heart of winter for some time.

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Matty H came up with the best reply to this thread, "utterly pointless". Why start a thread about winter on 13th August? Oh I forgot, Sriram started it. 

 

 

Perhaps because whether Matty H likes it or not winter is going to come and as such it is as valid a topic for discussion as any other on this forum.

Matty H came up with the best reply to this thread, "utterly pointless". Why start a thread about winter on 13th August? Oh I forgot, Sriram started it. 

 

 

Perhaps because whether Matty H likes it or not winter is going to come and as such it is as valid a topic for discussion as any other on this forum.

Indeed. And why not talk about winter?  After all, summer appears to be over...     

 

My winter forecast will be guaranteeing that large parts of southern England do NOT see less snow than last winter. It's not often possible to offer such certainty in long range forecasting. 

i'd have thought that was a given as it's impossible to see less snow than last winters no snow

Yes that was wht I meant.  Not one flake of snow fell here last winter.

 

I will wait for The Sun, Daily Mirror etc to issue theoir forecast and then I will assume the opposite.

 

I have 90%+ chance of getting it correct. I cannot remeber last time teh formular failed. Not very scientific but very accurate which works for me!

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Not had a proper Scandinavian high type winter for some years. The type where the main cold spells come via an easterly. Recent ones have either been mediocre (Jan 2010), short lived (Feb 09) or came at the start (late Nov 2010) or end (late Feb 05) of the season. Last decent one in the heart of winter was late January 1996.

Jan through to late march 2013produced the best Scandi high winter in a long time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Xmt1qgIQ24 was one such event, which if i recall correctly landed in the uk every Friday for about 6-7 weeks.

LPS were forced up and over, with slider break off lows interacting with the Scandi high and darting off to the Med. Wales had 50cm of snowfall from one such event around the 21st March.
At one point I remember snowfalling every day for about 8 days on the wirral. something which i dont recall happening before.

Yes but what I meaning is this type. Not had a decent one in the heart of winter for some time.

 

Having been lurking and occasionally posting on this forum for some years, I have noticed a tendency for forum members to see the Scandi High type cold spell as being 'the bees knees'. Not being an expert in weather science, I have always wondered why. How is an easterly better than a northerly (Greenland/iceland high) ? Greater chance of really low temps, snowfall?

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