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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 28 August 2013 21:22:53(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,258

August retrospective


A second consecutive above average month. While nowhere near as warm as July this August has been a very decent summer month with plenty of warm and sunny weather. This will be the warmest August in the CET area since 2004. The CET for the 1st is likely to be the warmest since 19 July 2006 and could be warmer than all but one other day in the hot 2006 summer.


Looking ahead to September


We may have a reasonably warm start to September but then there is a fair amount of uncertainty in the models so difficult to say what might happen after day 4. 


Please place your September CET predictions in this thread. The deadline for entries with no penalty is 23:59 on 31 August. Late entries will be accepted up to 23:59 on 2 September but are subject to a penalty of 0.2C per day for the purposes of the annual competition.


September historic data summary

Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.


Last year we saw the first significantly below average September since 1994 with a CET of just 13.0C. Generally September has been a very warm month with a record CET of 16.8C in 2006. But the September CET has exceeded 15C only once since 2006.


Long run averages:
1971-2000: 13.7C
1981-2010: 14.0C
1988-2012: 14.1C


Here is a chart of the September CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average



Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.

GEFS
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
A warm start but then a lot of scatter with the GEFS mean around average.    

ECM ensembles (De Bilt)
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php
Generally average with just a couple of warm days near the beginning of the month. But a lot of scatter with a few very warm solutions.  


Weatheronline
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Month-ahead
Out of date but suggests there could be plenty of warm weather in September with some cooler interludes. 


Met office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners
Contingency planners forecast not yet available but should be available very soon

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/london#?tab=regionalForecast&map=SignificantWeather&locId=352409&zoom=8&lon=-0.12&lat=51.51&fcTime=1377680400
30 day forecast - overall looks fairly average for September


Pattern matching (just for fun)


Looking at years since 1900 with a summer CET of 15.9C to 16.7C and an August CET of 16C to 17.6C there are 10 matches. Three years have a September CET within +-0.5C of the 1971-2000 mean, one year is more than 0.5C below the mean, 5 years are between 0.6C and 1.5C above the mean and one year is more than 1.5C above the mean.


So a slight bias here towards an above average month.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by moderator 29 August 2013 19:31:36(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl

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Offline Dougie  
#2 Posted : 28 August 2013 23:40:08(UTC)
Dougie

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Man
United Kingdom
Location: Sidcup, Kent.

14.3°c please.

Ha'way the lads
Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#3 Posted : 29 August 2013 07:56:10(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Posts: 6,087
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

14.8c please.

Online ozone_aurora  
#4 Posted : 29 August 2013 09:10:28(UTC)
ozone_aurora

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 716
Location: Lowestoft

15.2 C, please.

Online warrenb  
#5 Posted : 29 August 2013 09:19:20(UTC)
warrenb

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Posts: 2,813
Man
Location: Tonbridge, Kent

13.8C for me please.
Offline sunset22  
#6 Posted : 29 August 2013 09:22:08(UTC)
sunset22

Rank: Newbie

Joined: 19/11/2011(UTC)
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United Kingdom
Location: York UK

14.9 please

Offline ARTzeman  
#7 Posted : 29 August 2013 10:07:03(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Posts: 27,040
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

13.02c.  For me pease.l



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn
vince  
#8 Posted : 29 August 2013 10:44:41(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

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Posts: 6,714

15.6 please ,summer continues thank god , got to make up the delay in the garden after a terrible Spring
Offline Charmhills  
#9 Posted : 29 August 2013 10:45:58(UTC)
Charmhills

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Posts: 47,138
Man
Location: Everywhere

15.1 please.


Turning more unsettled and cooler later on.

Duane.

Offline Roonie  
#10 Posted : 29 August 2013 11:17:45(UTC)
Roonie

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,367
Man
Location: North Worcestershire

13.92 please

Still Lurking.......

North Worcestershire
Offline roger63  
#11 Posted : 29 August 2013 13:23:14(UTC)
roger63

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,281
Man
Location: Winchester,Hampshire

14.6 C please.

Offline Essan  
#12 Posted : 29 August 2013 15:57:57(UTC)
Essan

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 30,477
Antarctica
Location: Albion

I think it's going to go very average ....... so 14.1c please

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News
DaveinHull  
#13 Posted : 29 August 2013 17:13:25(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

14.4c for me please.

beaufort  
#14 Posted : 29 August 2013 17:54:55(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

14.6C please.

Offline Snow Hoper  
#15 Posted : 29 August 2013 19:04:59(UTC)
Snow Hoper

Rank: Advanced Member

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Posts: 38,063
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Thorndon, Suffolk

14.09C for me please.

By the time you realise your parents were right, your kids already think that you're wrong!
Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
Work: Around Bury St Edmunds.
Offline Hungry Tiger  
#16 Posted : 29 August 2013 19:33:40(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,072
Location: South Cambridgeshire

The new colour graphics on here is good.


 

Gavin S.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.
Offline Hungry Tiger  
#17 Posted : 29 August 2013 19:35:40(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,072
Location: South Cambridgeshire

I'll stick my neck out and go for


 15C.


 

Gavin S.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.
Offline Global Warming  
#18 Posted : 29 August 2013 21:24:06(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,258

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post


The new colour graphics on here is good.


 



Thanks. New style charts rolling out on the CET threads this week.

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Dingle Rob  
#19 Posted : 29 August 2013 21:24:41(UTC)
Dingle Rob

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 23/03/2011(UTC)
Posts: 213
United Kingdom
Location: Bristol

14.10C for me please 

Online Hippydave  
#20 Posted : 29 August 2013 21:27:30(UTC)
Hippydave

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 1,163
Location: Tunbridge Wells

13.9c for me please

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: East Grinstead
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