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Offline Hungry Tiger  
#141 Posted : 01 September 2013 10:48:31(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,072
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Final Hadley figure for August is 16.88C http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2013

Warmest August since 2004. Warmest July and August combination since 2006. First time both July and August have been more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean since 2003.

So we have a number of winners this month who all correctly predicted 16.9C:

Easterly Beasterly, Hippydave, marting, Nemi and Rob Snowman. Well done all.

Philip Eden's CET series finished at 17.1C http://www.climate-uk.com/

Several big thanks here to you Simon. Firstly the graphics. These new colour graphics are excellent - they are so clear and sharp - Nice to read as well.

Thanks also for the stats - These are excellent - It realy does show that the summer we have just had was really quite good and in excellent in mnay areas as well.

I can certainly say so for my part of the country.

 

 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.

Online Devonian  
#142 Posted : 01 September 2013 11:01:00(UTC)
Devonian

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 28,459
Man
Location: East Dartmoor

Thanks for all your hard work GW, well done the winners. Surprising that such a lovely month, here anyway, was only a little above normal.

I wonder, if corrections are applied to Hadley, how come the final figure is available so soon? Are they automatically done?

"When it takes nearly 900,000 votes to elect one party’s MP, and just 26,000 for another, you know something is deeply wrong."

The electoral reform society, 14,12,19

Offline Global Warming  
#143 Posted : 01 September 2013 12:01:39(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,258

Annual CET competition – August update

We are now two-thirds of the way through the year and it is still very tight in the competition so anything can still happen. We do have a new leader this month.

The predictions in August were generally excellent. The average error for the 62 people left in the competition was just 0.53C beating the 0.68C in April. We lost just one person this month which was Johnny25.

After a spot on prediction for August Nemi now leads the table and is the only person with a cumulative error less than 7C.

Remarkably Taylor1740 has not been outside the top three all year and just stays ahead of Norseman in third on count back.

The Professional climbs two places to fourth, the third time this year in that position. Stormchaser is a non-mover in fifth.

Easterly Beasterly and Edicius81 both climb one place to sixth and seventh respectively for their highest positions of the year.

The biggest faller in the top 10 this month is once again Weathermac down three to eighth after spending three consecutive months in first place earlier in the year.

Roonie and Charmhills swap places in rounding out the top 10.

Further down Hungry Tiger and redmoons reach their highest positions of the year in 19th and 25th respectively.

There are only three double digit movers this month, nouska down 12 to 27th, moomin75 down 15 to 53rd and ARTzeman down 19 at 56th.

A very interesting stat is that markwells in 61st place has made four predictions this year within 0.5C of the actual CET (all of which has been in the last five months). Nobody else has a better record than this. The other people with four predictions with an error less than 0.5C are Nemi, The Professional and Rob Snowman. Unfortunately in the other 4 months markwells’ predictions have been way off.

It is also interesting to look at the cumulative errors in the last 5 months. Often the biggest errors arise in the winter months and of course in March this year almost everyone had a shocker due to the exceptional cold. If we just look at the period since April the top 10 would be as follows:

1 Easterly Beasterly 2.42
2 Sevendust 2.44
3 The Professional 3.01
4 Edicius81 3.08
5 Nemi 3.17
6 alan 3.23
7 Quantum 3.34
8 domma 3.34
9 Hungry Tiger 3.38
10 Dougie 3.42

August biggest climbers
46 Hippydave (↑8)
41 Alvin Meister (↑7)
39 marting (↑7)
19 Hungry Tiger (↑7)
23 Steam Fog (↑6)
43 GezM (↑6)
45 roger63 (↑6)
50 D McAlister (↑6)

August biggest fallers
56 ARTzeman (↓19)
53 moomin75 (↓15)
27 nouska (↓12)
29 Surrey John (↓7)
49 Llamedos (↓6)
59 AP Snowman (↓6)

For those of you interested in the detailed stats for the year so far here is the table showing the monthly prediction errors (yellow colouring means an error of less than 0.5C and orange means no prediction was made that month) and each person's position in the tables by month.

 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by user 01 September 2013 12:05:15(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Hungry Tiger  
#144 Posted : 01 September 2013 12:07:20(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,072
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post

I'll go for just above average I reckon. That's going on the basis of a few hot days and then most of the rest being around average or just above.

I'll go for

16.8C

Heavens above - bang on pretty well.

 

Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.

Offline Gavin P  
#145 Posted : 01 September 2013 12:15:35(UTC)
Gavin P

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 35,320
Man
United Kingdom

Thanks for all the facts and fogures GW.

Loving the new graphics.

I seem to be having a reasonable mid-year - Looking for a top ten finish.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/

Offline nouska  
#146 Posted : 01 September 2013 13:20:13(UTC)
nouska

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 2,632
Location: SW France and Weybridge, Surrey.

Thanks GW, liking the new graphics and easy on the eye colours - not liking my change in position, major fail in the method this month. Probably a repeat for September too!

Offline Rob K  
#147 Posted : 01 September 2013 15:52:10(UTC)
Rob K

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 21,765
Location: Northeast Hampshire

Oh dear, is all I can say!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline Dougie  
#148 Posted : 01 September 2013 17:07:13(UTC)
Dougie

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 16,530
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Sidcup, Kent.

Great stuff GW, thanks.

Ha'way the lads
Offline ARTzeman  
#149 Posted : 01 September 2013 17:13:09(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,032
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Thanks GW.

Just like cet Checking...

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Deep Powder  
#150 Posted : 01 September 2013 21:08:27(UTC)
Deep Powder

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,435
United Kingdom
Location: Near Leatherhead 100masl

Brilliant stuff GW, thanks so much for running this!
Near Leatherhead 100masl

Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!

Offline Snow Hoper  
#151 Posted : 02 September 2013 04:38:07(UTC)
Snow Hoper

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 38,063
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Thorndon, Suffolk

Thanks GW

By the time you realise your parents were right, your kids already think that you're wrong!

Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.

Work: Around Bury St Edmunds.

Offline wallaw  
#152 Posted : 02 September 2013 10:00:05(UTC)
wallaw

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 12,091
Man
Location: Stockton-on-Tees

Thanks GW, fantastic stats and analysis as ever

Ian

Stockton-on-Tees

Offline ARTzeman  
#153 Posted : 02 September 2013 11:07:09(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,032
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley CET for August put the figure as 16.9c. Anomaly 1.1c..

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Global Warming  
#154 Posted : 02 September 2013 18:10:32(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,258

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post
<p>Met Office Hadley CET for August put the figure as 16.9c. Anomaly 1.1c..</p>

That is the rounded figure. The official figure to 2 decimals is as per the link I posted yesterday.

The anomaly quoted by Hadley is against the 1961-1990 averages. I use more recent averages for comparison.

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Stormchaser  
#155 Posted : 02 September 2013 19:25:14(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,847
Man
Location: West Hants

Many thanks GW

August has brought the top 5 closer together, making it a hard-fought competition as we begin September. Looks like an interesting Autumn ahead in the CET competition

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Caz  
#156 Posted : 03 September 2013 20:47:29(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,276
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Well done to the winners and many thanks to GW for all the hard work involved with running this competition.  It's great to see so many people taking part. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

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