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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 28 July 2013 16:02:49(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,258

July retrospective


The first above average month of the year and well above average at that. Likely to finish just under 2C above average. So far 2013 has seen every month of the year at least 0.5C either above or below average. The pattern matching for July was useless as it did not predict any real chance of very warm weather.


Looking ahead to August


Early indications are that apart from a brief hot spell at the start of the month we could be looking at very average conditions in the first half of the month.


Please place your August CET predictions in this thread. The deadline for entries with no penalty is 23:59 on 31 July. Late entries will be accepted up to 23:59 on 2 August but are subject to a penalty of 0.2C per day for the purposes of the annual competition.


August historic data summary

Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.


We have not had a warm August since 2004 so perhaps we are due one. 2004 saw 17.6C and the previous year saw 18.3C. The last really hot August was 1995 with 19.2C. Three of the last 6 August's saw a CET of 15.3C or 15.4C (2007, 2010 and 2011). In 2012 the CET was a little above average at 16.7C.


Long run averages:
1971-2000: 16.2C
1981-2010: 16.4C
1988-2012: 16.5C


Here is a chart of the July CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average



Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.

GEFS
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

A hot start potentially but then very average but fairly dry.   

ECM ensembles (De Bilt)
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php
A very warm start to the month but temperatures then drifting down towards and even below average. 


Weatheronline
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Month-ahead
After a hot start turning cooler but then could see a fair bit of warmer weather from mid month onwards. 


Met office
Contingency planners forecast not yet available but probably will be released on Monday

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/city-of-london#?tab=regionalForecast
30 day forecast - after a brief hot start generally average temperatures for the rest of the month


Pattern matching (just for fun)


Looking at years since 1900 with a Jun - Jul temperature of 15.5C to 16.5C and July temperature of 17.7C to 18.8C there are only 8 matches. No obvious pattern can be discerned from this. In some years (1900 and 1901) August was very cool, in others (1911 and 1995) it was hot and in others it was about average.


So no clear signal at all this month.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by moderator 28 July 2013 16:20:07(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl

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Offline ARTzeman  
#2 Posted : 28 July 2013 16:15:29(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Sticking my neck out and going for...... 19.1c.....



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn
Online Hungry Tiger  
#3 Posted : 28 July 2013 16:39:40(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

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Posts: 25,072
Location: South Cambridgeshire

I'll go for just above average I reckon. That's going on the basis of a few hot days and then most of the rest being around average or just above.


I'll go for


16.8C

Gavin S.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.
Offline Caz  
#4 Posted : 28 July 2013 16:59:26(UTC)
Caz

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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

As your stats show that no month this year has been within 0.5c of average, I'm going with that theme and we're overdue a good August, so I'm going to plump for


17.2c please GW.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
Offline Gavin P  
#5 Posted : 28 July 2013 17:09:40(UTC)
Gavin P

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United Kingdom

Wouldn't it be extraordinary if after an 18c July we had a 14c August...

Rural West Northants 120m asl
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Offline Essan  
#6 Posted : 28 July 2013 17:44:29(UTC)
Essan

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Posts: 30,477
Antarctica
Location: Albion

I'm expecting a rather typical British summer month.  Warm in the south at times, so the CET (2 of which stations are in the south) looks like being a bit above average.

17.4c


Edited by user 31 July 2013 17:14:35(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News
Offline cowman  
#7 Posted : 28 July 2013 18:31:20(UTC)
cowman

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United Kingdom
Location: uttoxeter

16.8 c for me please.
beaufort  
#8 Posted : 28 July 2013 18:44:34(UTC)
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Rank: Guest

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Posts: 6,714

17.0C please.

Offline Hippydave  
#9 Posted : 28 July 2013 19:10:07(UTC)
Hippydave

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Posts: 1,163
Location: Tunbridge Wells

16.9c for me please


Nout overly hot after the first few days but a beautiful dry 7 days coinciding with my hols down in Cornwall

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: East Grinstead
vince  
#10 Posted : 29 July 2013 08:51:30(UTC)
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20.2 exceptional heat ,excessive sunshine 100f to be broken .
Offline Charmhills  
#11 Posted : 29 July 2013 09:19:53(UTC)
Charmhills

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Man
Location: Everywhere

17.2c with average rainfall for most.

Duane.

Online doctormog  
#12 Posted : 29 July 2013 09:21:13(UTC)
doctormog

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Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 70,335

17.1°C for me please.
Edicius81  
#13 Posted : 29 July 2013 09:35:10(UTC)
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Posts: 6,714

It seems nigh on impossible to call between predominately north-westerly or south-westerly. I'm gonna guess at 16.8c please
Offline Shez5690  
#14 Posted : 29 July 2013 09:56:26(UTC)
Shez5690

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Man
Location: Bridgnorth, Shropshire

17.3c for me please

Offline springsunshine  
#15 Posted : 29 July 2013 10:31:42(UTC)
springsunshine

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Posts: 1,413
Location: Bournemouth

a very unsettled month cominmg so a coolish 16.2c

Online Roonie  
#16 Posted : 29 July 2013 10:36:52(UTC)
Roonie

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Posts: 3,367
Man
Location: North Worcestershire

17.17 please

Still Lurking.......

North Worcestershire
Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#17 Posted : 29 July 2013 11:05:32(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Posts: 6,087
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Another hot month 18.6c


 

Offline Surrey John  
#18 Posted : 29 July 2013 13:15:26(UTC)
Surrey John

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Man
Location: Kingston upon Thames

A warmish 17.65c for me please
Kingston upon Thames

15m ASL
Offline Stormchaser  
#19 Posted : 29 July 2013 17:05:40(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Man
Location: West Hants

Just to mess with your minds an estimation using the 12z GFS op run's raw data produces a CET over 20°C to 14th August


The run is considerably hotter than most recent ones, but the changes do start at just four days range... minds messed with now?

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Offline Rob K  
#20 Posted : 29 July 2013 18:50:10(UTC)
Rob K

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 21,773
Location: Northeast Hampshire

Originally Posted by: vince Go to Quoted Post
20.2 exceptional heat ,excessive sunshine 100f to be broken .


I hope so, but I am going to plump for a more realistic 18.4C.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
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