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Online cultman1  
#1 Posted : 12 April 2013 19:04:51(UTC)
cultman1

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Location: Fulham London SW6

It may well be a bit early in mid April but does anyone have any potential leaning on how Summer 2013 may shape up? Following several dismal UK summers in a row , could 2013 show signs of a dryer and warmer potentiallity or are we in for a possible/probable continuation of the dross of previous summers? It may be well too early to offer views at this stage but as we are seemingly and currently in for a potential sustained spell of wet and windy weather in the weeks ahead....maybe April showers.... this seems to mirror 2012 at this stage.


Ideas, suggestions, on this excellent forum always welcome. Over to you all.....

Edited by moderator 10 May 2013 10:49:20(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline Hungry Tiger  
#2 Posted : 12 April 2013 19:10:52(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

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Location: South Cambridgeshire

In my view/opinion.


I think this summer will be cool and dry - I think we'll see a couple of brief warm spells.


It will not be a good summer. But it will not be as bad as the previous 6 summers.


However, my gut feeling is that this summer will in large part consist of the northern blocking we have seen so much of this past few years.


This summer may well be a pre-cursor to a very cold winter even colder than what we have experienced so far.


In a lot of ways with what I have just said here. I would like to be proved wrong.


The patters we have had recently do have a lot of 1962 written all over it.


 

Gavin S.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.
DaveinHull  
#3 Posted : 12 April 2013 20:12:21(UTC)
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Its worth noting that had the past months charts occurred in July it would have been very warm with a dry and sunny continental easterly. Therfore if high pressure was to relocate to the north of the UK it wouldnt necessarily be a bad thing for summer.

Offline moomin75  
#4 Posted : 12 April 2013 21:17:02(UTC)
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In my view, it will not be quite as wet as last year (can't be surely)....but I fear my Ark will be needed in good measure again in 2013.


Just a gut feeling, but I think we are in an extended pattern of cool, wet summers and cold ish winters.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Offline Stormchaser  
#5 Posted : 12 April 2013 21:57:16(UTC)
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This looks like a good place for this 'light' study that I carried out:


https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ABNAaKs5zk0Ua1pcX-nW2hEaUfFpe3UpiMjrk1Pbn9w/pub?start=false&loop=false&delayms=3000


The links in my original post became invalid as the site did not keep hold of my composites, so I'm in the process of creating a presentation using the Google Docs product. Hopefully the above link works just fine!


 

Edited by user 13 April 2013 09:56:42(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports
2018's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)
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Offline POD  
#6 Posted : 13 April 2013 05:53:57(UTC)
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I don't no whether it's a browser problem with me but the links are only showing the home page of the website.

Pat.
Offline Stormchaser  
#7 Posted : 13 April 2013 09:10:12(UTC)
Stormchaser

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It appears that all of the composites I produced aren't stored on the site. The only way I could get around that would be to store them somewhere else... I'll look into it.


 


Edit: I've produced a presentation on my findings using Google Docs, here's a link to it:


https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ABNAaKs5zk0Ua1pcX-nW2hEaUfFpe3UpiMjrk1Pbn9w/pub?start=false&loop=false&delayms=3000


Any feedback will be much appreciated

Edited by user 13 April 2013 11:16:27(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports
2018's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Offline Dingle Rob  
#8 Posted : 13 April 2013 11:35:53(UTC)
Dingle Rob

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Location: Bristol

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post


It appears that all of the composites I produced aren't stored on the site. The only way I could get around that would be to store them somewhere else... I'll look into it.


 


Edit: I've produced a presentation on my findings using Google Docs, here's a link to it:


https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ABNAaKs5zk0Ua1pcX-nW2hEaUfFpe3UpiMjrk1Pbn9w/pub?start=false&loop=false&delayms=3000


Any feedback will be much appreciated



A very clear and interesting analysis. Thanks. I would be interested in your thoughts on what a 'good' summer actually means. Predominance of dry weather for sure but were those summers cool to warm, rather than warm to hot. 


I can't remember a similar run of summers that have been so noticeably cool as to those since 2006. With a complete lack of AH heading our way I wonder if the cool theme will be maintained this year albeit much drier and sunnier.


Rob

Offline Essan  
#9 Posted : 13 April 2013 11:58:10(UTC)
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Location: Albion

I'm expected at least one month this year to produce record high temperatures.   But whether that'll be any of the traditional summer months I couldn't say.

After a record dry summer followed by a near record wet summer in these parts, I think rainfall could fall either way.  Or even end up average.  But it may well be a summer of large regional variation once again.

Er, that's about it!

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News
Offline Gooner  
#10 Posted : 13 April 2013 12:31:41(UTC)
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Man

2013


A Cooler than average year , average rainfall


Early falls of snow later in the year

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L
Offline Gavin P  
#11 Posted : 13 April 2013 13:06:29(UTC)
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United Kingdom

Here's my first summer 2013 seasonal model-round up video from last month;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com/seasonal.html


There was no sign of an especially good summer last month.


I'll have a new update within the next week or so. Will be interesting to see if theres any sigificant changes.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/
Offline Stormchaser  
#12 Posted : 13 April 2013 13:42:11(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Originally Posted by: Dingle Rob Go to Quoted Post



A very clear and interesting analysis. Thanks. I would be interested in your thoughts on what a 'good' summer actually means. Predominance of dry weather for sure but were those summers cool to warm, rather than warm to hot. 


I can't remember a similar run of summers that have been so noticeably cool as to those since 2006. With a complete lack of AH heading our way I wonder if the cool theme will be maintained this year albeit much drier and sunnier.


Rob



Your welcome 


For me, a 'good' summer manages average temperatures and average rainfall, with most of the rainfall from convective showers. Due to the fact that the anomalies are only a rough guide to the conditions on the ground, I think that seeing signs of a 'good' summer covers the various definitions that most people have (there are of course exceptions, such as those who'd rather it was cool and damp).


I think the most encouraging signs from my study are the ones pointing towards a decline in Arctic pressure and associated high latitude blocking, and those +ve mid-latitude anomalies which indicate an Azores High that's often able to extend well on into the UK and Europe


The thing is, that projection, as opposed to one of a completely opposite sort of summer, is entirely a result of how a single month turned out - March 2013.


FWIW the CFS output for the summer that I've seen over the past few months has been more encouraging than anything I can recall from the past 3-5 years. Right now it looks average and westerly driven for May, similar for June, and then good for July. It's been indicating a decent July for a long time now.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports
2018's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Offline SydneyonTees  
#13 Posted : 13 April 2013 13:57:13(UTC)
SydneyonTees

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My punt would be something along the lines of 1917 (which had a very cold spring of course)


The better half of the summer will be from mid May - early July. Then from mid July - late August I would expect it to be  wet and cool, just in time for the summer holidays in England. I think 1993 had a similar pattern also, cooled down by the time mid July was reached.


Then I would expect a warm sunny spell early September.


I think there will be a week long hot spell (temps over 30c in England) this summer, but it won't hang around.

Offline Nick Gilly  
#14 Posted : 13 April 2013 14:03:35(UTC)
Nick Gilly

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Posts: 371
Location: Whitchurch, Hampshire

Hey Stormchaser, thanks for your analysis. That was a very interesting read and I for one hope we have a warm dry summer. The last one with that combination was 7 years ago so we are due a decent one.

Of course the weather will do what the weather will do but we can hope.
Offline Sevendust  
#15 Posted : 13 April 2013 14:14:29(UTC)
Sevendust

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Location: Alton, Hampshire

Pretty sure that this will be a rather unsettled,wet summer. No idea on temperature at this point but given the ongoing coolness I expect it to be average at best

Dave
Alton - deep in the Hampshire Alps
Offline Gusty  
#16 Posted : 13 April 2013 19:57:07(UTC)
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Based on the trend since 2007 for wetter and more unsettled summers coupled with cooler and more prolonged winters, my reckoning will be for another cool and unsettled summer this year. A mid 80's style winter could well be followed by a mid 80's style summer is my reckoning.


I love heat, humidity and sunshine in summer...therefore I will grab anything that is on offer like that with open arms ! 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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Offline springsunshine  
#17 Posted : 14 April 2013 13:48:50(UTC)
springsunshine

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Location: Bournemouth

 my gut feeling is we are going to contine with the trend of cool/wet summers this year


as well.even though we are overdue a hot/dry one.


Just a gut feeling


June- cool with above average rainfall


July- could well be the best month of all, warm,dry and sunny


August- below average temperatures & a noticably cool wet month


september- an indian summer mid month before autumn sets in.

Offline Sevendust  
#18 Posted : 14 April 2013 13:56:05(UTC)
Sevendust

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Location: Alton, Hampshire

Originally Posted by: springsunshine Go to Quoted Post


 my gut feeling is we are going to contine with the trend of cool/wet summers this year


as well.even though we are overdue a hot/dry one.


Just a gut feeling


June- cool with above average rainfall


July- could well be the best month of all, warm,dry and sunny


August- below average temperatures & a noticably cool wet month


september- an indian summer mid month before winter sets in.



Corrected for Marcus

Dave
Alton - deep in the Hampshire Alps
JoeShmoe99  
#19 Posted : 14 April 2013 17:19:23(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Sevendust Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: springsunshine Go to Quoted Post


 my gut feeling is we are going to contine with the trend of cool/wet summers this year


as well.even though we are overdue a hot/dry one.


Just a gut feeling


June- cool with above average rainfall


July- could well be the best month of all, warm,dry and sunny


August- below average temperatures & a noticably cool wet month


september- an indian summer mid month before winter sets in.



Corrected for Marcus



lol, and add snow in June for YD!


I think we'll see the jetstream further north this year and a more typical summer, some wetter/cooler spells but also a few heatwaves

User is suspended until 30/01/2561 19:52:21(UTC) Younger Dryas  
#20 Posted : 14 April 2013 17:59:23(UTC)
Younger Dryas

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Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: Sevendust Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: springsunshine Go to Quoted Post


 my gut feeling is we are going to contine with the trend of cool/wet summers this year


as well.even though we are overdue a hot/dry one.


Just a gut feeling


June- cool with above average rainfall


July- could well be the best month of all, warm,dry and sunny


August- below average temperatures & a noticably cool wet month


september- an indian summer mid month before winter sets in.



Corrected for Marcus



lol, and add snow in June for YD!


I think we'll see the jetstream further north this year and a more typical summer, some wetter/cooler spells but also a few heatwaves



The last several years have been typical summers for the UK, albeit a couple of them were on the wet side. As Darren says, the shock on here will be acute if we actually do get a genuine cold summer. With temperatures now returning close to 1961-90 values, it's only a matter of time before the die rolls up such a summer

Edited by user 14 April 2013 18:00:38(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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