I cannot believe that I had to skim almost 20 pages to catch up!

 

The exitement of grown men over the chance of a snowflake or two on here is fascinating.  Still. That is how I feel over the chances of temperatures over 30.

 

Face the facts though.  My odds are increasingly growing whilst yours are increasingly diminishing.  I do so hate the cold 

 

Have a great Christmas everyone!

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I know - My dream became reality - 'waking up to mild and wet charts'. Last night in the 18z we looked like we were in for a prolonged cold spell from 25th. This was a flip from what appeared to be going mild but ENS flipped back to cold and now they are back to mild....!

So you are discounting all other models .................GFS is correct ?

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I cannot believe that I had to skim almost 20 pages to catch up!

 

The exitement of grown men over the chance of a snowflake or two on here is fascinating.  Still. That is how I feel over the chances of temperatures over 30.

 

Face the facts though.  My odds are increasingly growing whilst yours are increasingly diminishing.  I do so hate the cold 

 

Have a great Christmas everyone!

Given the favourable background signals for cold weather it does make me wonder. However, I'd wait for the 12z updates before worrying too much. However, the 6z update is looking awful for prolonged cold in southern Britain I think.  

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I's say the OP is a bit too keen Xmas Day and Boxing day 

A very good cluster running towards New Year ...............deepest FI granted 

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I know I wouldn’t trust any run at present to be right, particularly one that goes wrong at 6 hours out!
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48970&model=gfs&var=5&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1

Let’s see what later brings 

Martin

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Just flicked through the 06Z GFS it's not all doom n gloom but of course we can write off this prolonged cold spell which looked like it was about to materialise in last nights 18z run. Now it looks like it could be a short lived cold snap between boxing day and 28th but that's if this 06z GFS comes about. However, we now see a split between the Operational and Control with the control going colder after 28th and and Operational going milder.

The 00z GEM and UKMO looked good for cold for the south, whilst the ECM looked all over the place but as it's the 00z it's perhaps out of date!?! As for the ICON - I can't see it beyond 120 for the 06z? does it stop there?

What a rollercoaster this is turning out to be! Isn't it!?

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Just flicked through the 06Z GFS it's not all doom n gloom but of course we can write off this prolonged cold spell which looked like it was about to materialise in last nights 18z run. Now it looks like it could be a short lived cold snap between boxing day and 28th but that's if this 06z GFS comes about. However, we now see a split between the Operational and Control with the control going colder after 28th and and Operational going milder.
What a rollercoaster this is turning out to be! Isn't it!?

Havent spent much time on each run for this very reason. Also other distractions like Covid and political mess so weather doesnt seem as important this time. Past years that GFS 06z would have had me jumping up and down with frustration!

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Havent spent much time on each run for this very reason. Also other distractions like Covid and political mess so weather doesnt seem as important this time. Past years that GFS 06z would have had me jumping up and down with frustration!

Tell me about it!! - Plans ruined for a 2nd year in a row now!

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Apologies for an ‘early’ call, but most of the UK might have ‘lost’ Christmas Day, and the probability of something substantial after that might be fading too.
Now prove me wrong NWP (or actual conditions, whichever come sooner lol)

I blame myself. I told my grandson last night to put a quid on a White Christmas in Birmingham !

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GEFS35 which is initiated  24 hours earlier is favouring mild conditions between Jan1 to 21 which is basically as far it goes. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-35-day.aspx?loc=London

 

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Just flicked through the 06Z GFS it's not all doom n gloom but of course we can write off this prolonged cold spell which looked like it was about to materialise in last nights 18z run. Now it looks like it could be a short lived cold snap between boxing day and 28th but that's if this 06z GFS comes about. However, we now see a split between the Operational and Control with the control going colder after 28th and and Operational going milder.

The 00z GEM and UKMO looked good for cold for the south, whilst the ECM looked all over the place but as it's the 00z it's perhaps out of date!?! As for the ICON - I can't see it beyond 120 for the 06z? does it stop there?

What a rollercoaster this is turning out to be! Isn't it!?

But surely we can't be sure still, what will happen in the 6-10 day range- everyone's been talking about the wild swings in the models, especially the GFS op. ECM was still pretty this morning.

And even if the 6z was remarkably on the button, plenty of the outputs in the 6z suite give a good blast of sub -5 uppers and N or NEly fetch for a few days and the mean pressure set up from about 162 to 222 is for LP to the E and HP N or NW. All we have to do is compare to other years - at least we haven't been zonally groundhog-day'd for the whole of November & December and there's still the chance of wintry precipitation during Christmas week. If you take away the excitement/hype from the last few days, what we're left with is not a bad outlook at all- and personally I'm less bothered about wintry weather once we're past 26th.

So, 

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GEFS35 which is initiated  24 hours earlier is favouring mild conditions between Jan1 to 21 which is basically as far it goes. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-35-day.aspx?loc=London

 

 

That's the thing 24hrs earlier so could all be different now!?

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Not unexpected to see the models jumping around with regards to the weather Christmas day and beyond with it being 6 days away still. The gfs looks out on its own this morning when looking at the differences between it and the Euro's at just t120. Apart from the gem the ukmo looks the best going forward but am wary whether the energy to the east will phase with the energy to the west ( we don't want this ). 

Does anyone have the ukmo t168 charts they could post.

 

I know where you are coming from.  For up here I've been keeping an eye on the 22nd as thats been the day for some time that the uncertainty starts.  It until the last day or so was the day that the 850s went below zero and signaled the incoming cold.(Glasgow ensembles gfs)  This uncertainty and crossover has now been pushed to the 23rd.  

The potential, especially up here, is still there, but it is definitely being pushed back/warmed up as the small details are factored in.

A long way to go yet and I'm still looking forward to a more seasonal cool spell in general.

In fact 6z has pushed it back another 12+ hours and reduced the severity of the cold drop off.  The warm up beyond Christmas is starting to look like an unwelcome trend.  Hopefully the pack swings back towards the control on later runs.

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I will wait for the 12z runs. If they show something similar to the 06z GFS I will take note. Until then it’s of little more than passing interest to me. This potential cold snap/spell has never come into the “realistic” time period so changes are to be expected. When Christmas comes it could still be mild or it could be white. We may know in a few days.

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I will wait for the 12z runs. If they show something similar to the 06z GFS I will take note. Until then it’s of little more than passing interest to me. This potential cold snap/spell has never come into the “realistic” time period so changes are to be expected. When Christmas comes it could still be mild or it could be white. We may know in a few days.

And let's be honest white Xmas's are as rare as hens teeth 

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I will wait for the 12z runs. If they show something similar to the 06z GFS I will take note. Until then it’s of little more than passing interest to me. This potential cold snap/spell has never come into the “realistic” time period so changes are to be expected. When Christmas comes it could still be mild or it could be white. We may know in a few days.

We may know or we may not, but come what may we’ll know if we do or we don’t.

Model watching - thus it is and always has been (as far as I know).

😎

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I doubt the 12z will resolve unless the ensembles spread is significantly reduced  and all main 12z agree .  Any 12z Op could be anywhere on this spread for the 23rd (Manchester) . 

 

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Not unexpected to see the models jumping around with regards to the weather Christmas day and beyond with it being 6 days away still. The gfs looks out on its own this morning when looking at the differences between it and the Euro's at just t120. Apart from the gem the ukmo looks the best going forward but am wary whether the energy to the east will phase with the energy to the west ( we don't want this ). 

Does anyone have the ukmo t168 charts they could post.

Here

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx

 

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Notable shift away from cold on the London GEFS 06z data table

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-tables.aspx

 

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