Personally, looking at the teleconnections rather than at the direct model output, I really do expect a second visitation from The Beast, starting around 18/19/20 March.

Not saying it is what I wish for, just that it looks more than possible.

 

I havent seen the 6z yet, but there seems to be a growing desire for a GH around 20th, though a seemingly week affair.  Could produce some heavy convective showers under a strengthening sun.

 

Would be one of those where its 7-8*c one minute, and heavy snow the next.  Big Temp contrasts, with heat at the surface and a very cold upper atmosphere.

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I havent seen the 6z yet, but there seems to be a growing desire for a GH around 20th, though a seemingly week affair.  Could produce some heavy convective showers under a strengthening sun.

 

Would be one of those where its 7-8*c one minute, and heavy snow the next.  Big Temp contrasts, with heat at the surface and a very cold upper atmosphere.

During the day only though. Convective snow is at its best when its due to the lake effect. Any solar based convection will be a slushy, melty mess and dissapear during the night where it has a chance of lying.

At this time of year we need fronts to get anything interesting.

 

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Michael Ventrice has this to say of the MJO forecast;

"My goodness... over a +5 standard deviation rise in N. Hemisphere averaged atmospheric angular momentum is predicted via the GFS in the medium range. This will have a big impact on the Pacific Jet and downstream America weather."

 

 

 

If our recent SSW was kicked of by a 4 s.d. deviation in atmospheric angular momentum then what do folk think this will bring?

You can see the leap for the 6th so tomorrows models will tell us if that occurred and if the leap off the plot is going to happen. With the PV on it's wind down to the final warming just what will this energy mean for the Jet and all points down stream? the 4 s.d. excursion looped it into the Arctic and allowed positive temps to occur widely ( 6.1c on north shore of Greenland instead of minus 16c???).

Could the jet loop over the basin and have us on the summer side with Africa spilling its guts over us or will it plunge way,way to our south?

March just wants to keep on being a lion eh?

(5 S.D.'s is a one in three and a half million shot!)

 

That would probably be an interesting post if I understood a word of it!!

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That would probably be an interesting post if I understood a word of it!!

All you need to know is that GFS is predicting MJO permutations which are off the chart in scale, leading to massive angular momentum, even stronger than that which led to the February SSW. Naturally, the GFS predictions for the MJO could be wrong, but that they are so well outside the standard deviation is of interest.

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Personally, looking at the teleconnections rather than at the direct model output, I really do expect a second visitation from The Beast, starting around 18/19/20 March.

Not saying it is what I wish for, just that it looks more than possible.

GEFS has plenty of blocking longer term, so perhaps this is starting to feed into the models

A cold easter is quite common these days

 

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GEFS has plenty of blocking longer term, so perhaps this is starting to feed into the models

A cold easter is quite common these days

 

A cold, wet Easter!!!

No thanks.

What I wouldn't give for a 2 week dry spell with good spells of Spring sunshine and some early warmth say into the teens.

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Looks like a predominately stuck pattern for the reliable...Southern tracking jet leaving us under a slow moving unsettled pattern....Its interesting to see primary areas of low pressure forming and moving up the eastern seaboard of USA without dispersing across the Atlantic due to the block over Greenland/Eastern Canada...Thus keeping Eastern USA mostly cold and snowy

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www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0

GEM turning cold

 

 

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www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0

GEM turning cold

 

 

 

GFS building high over Scandi cold looks about to flood down!!

 

 

GFS building high over Scandi cold looks about to flood down!!

Yes, a recurring theme of the new "beast" being pumped up

But we need to see it appear in the METO text long range

 

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Oh I can just hear the media now
“Beast from the East 2”
“The beast revisited “
“The beast isn’t over until the Atlantic sings”
What joy .....😴

GFS....picking up signals????....maybe...but this run is all over the place....lots of confusion post 120 hrs....Interesting to say the least....NH in disarray (Daily Mail)....Beast returns from his lair (D.Express).....think we know what's in the near coming headlines...

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Oh I can just hear the media now
“Beast from the East 2”
“The beast revisited “
“The beast isn’t over until the Atlantic sings”
What joy .....😴

Lots of talk in local media/social media of the Pest from the West which brought today's snowfall

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LOL at ECM trying to be like GFS with a dartboard low over the UK in the 168 hr range.  But sadly, such synoptic are still quite common at this time of the year.

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haven't commented on here for a while but looking at tonights run - this LP system around mid moth seems a bit stubborn does it not? - like it doesn't want to go east and pull down north easterlies or moving northwards to bring us southerlies!? 

 

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Filling out a bit like Tallyho_83's inbox!!!!!!

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Filling out a bit like Tallyho_83's inbox!!!!!!

should be cleared now - pleas PM me.

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That L/P is acting a little bit like Storm Emma. If she had moved East we would be still shovelling snow!!!
With the jet all over the place and pressure over Europe slightly higher the L/P seems happy to drift around the UK. Let's hope it doesn't apply for a summer visa!!!

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It's doesn't look like the cold air is coming back on this morning's GFS. I think winter may be done for this year now.

let's hope so. Not a fan of winter in Spring