Given no Hadley updates since 3rd Oct (terrible service), this is even looser than usual but for a general idea, using the ECM 00z as a base suggests the CET to be in the range of 12.7 to 13.1*C (somewhere near 1*C above the LTA) by the time Friday's done, and then 13.2 to 13.8*C to the end of Monday 16th (between roughly 1.5 and 2.0*C above the LTA).
The warmth on this run actually peaks Sunday for most and Monday in the south - in stark contrast to GFS which is pushing the plume away during Sunday and has a dry but fairly cool day for Monday. I've not got time to look at how that would affect things but at a guess we'd be 'only' between 1 an 1.5*C above the LTA to the end of Monday.
The weather sure seems to be pulling some sneaky moves; this run of warmth is from a pattern pretty much identical to what the late-Aug model output suggested was most likely for mid-Sep, which I was okay to go along with only for it to go AWOL until a less impressive version developed late-month... and now here we are with the fully-fledged version, after the late-Sep models showed little interest in such things .
Interestingly (or worryingly if you've gone near-average like me... let alone below average), even though the 00z GFS cools things off considerably in the 10-16 day range, appending that on to the 00z ECM guidance only brings the CET down to between 12 and 13*C as of 24th which is still near 1-2*C above the LTA.
Edited by user
09 October 2017 10:33:16
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