I will go for 4.4C
As mentioned previously I have been very busy this month and decided I needed a proper break over Christmas so am rather behind. There has been plenty of the usual winter nonsense going on in the model thread to no doubt keep you all entertained in my absence.
Everything will be brought up to date in the next 48 hours. After that I will endeavour to keep on top of things going forward but let's see how it goes. I am hoping I can start the new year with a clean slate and stay ahead of the curve. But if that proves to be unrealistic then I will welcome some assistance.
If you wish to make a prediction for the annual CET for 2017 please feel free to add it to this thread. I think it makes sense to keep everything CET related in one thread going forward. We can roll forward the predictions and latest charts for the annual numbers in the new thread each month.
No changes to the rules for the competition in 2017. The current system seems to be working well unless anyone thinks otherwise or has any suggestions.
The contingency planners forecast is linked - suggests an increased probability of a cooler than normal January but you knew that already.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-jfm-v1.pdf
Jan mean CET
1971-2000 4.2C
1981-2010 4.4C
1996-2015 4.6C
Apart from 2010 and 1997 we have not had a sub 3C January since 1987. But will this be the year? Personally I doubt it. While the synoptic setup this year is very different to the last few winters, the strong westerly QBO is I think a key factor in helping to keep the really cold weather away from us. Eastern Europe is probably the place to be if you want severe cold. That said I am sure there will be some brief cold snaps for us in the next couple of months.