A combined analysis of model output for the last few days and using the LTA for the second half of the month suggests a CET of around 7*C for March... but there has been a marked trend upward in the predicted temperatures through the period, with early runs producing as low as 6.7*C run and the latest of the runs more than a degree higher at 7.8*C.
To add to this output, there is a strong signal for a considerable positive height anomaly to develop over NW Europe by mid-month, and this has been around in some guise or other for at least a week now. It's a pattern that tends to be very persistent once established, and can produce well above average temperatures across the UK at times as a long-draw SW'rly imports air from the subtropics.
So, like last month, I'm going to adjust the predicted CET upward. Hopefully this will prove to be a step in the right direction this time
I may as well go with an old favourite:
7.7*C
Many thanks as always GW, here's hoping for a spring that has something for everyone
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https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On