Welcome Guest! To enable all features please Login. New Registrations are disabled.

Notification

Icon
Error

8 Pages«<45678>
Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Offline Global Warming  
#101 Posted : 19 October 2014 09:05:44(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,125

After falling back in line with the 1971-2000 mean last Monday the CET has been rising again and will continue to do so today before levelling off and beginning a very slow fall until the end of the month.

By my calculations the CET moved back above 12C yesterday and could get as high as 12.25C today. Temperatures return to just above average during this week and may dip a little further by the end of the month.

At present I am estimating a final CET of 11.83C. However, it is still quite possible we could finish at 12C or above.

A final figure of 11.8C for October would result in the CET mean for the first 10 months of 2014 being the highest on record, exceeding the current record held by 1990.

The Autumn CET is tracking well above average but is only likely to be the joint 8th warmest on record for the first 2 months based on current output. 2005, 2006 and 2011 were all much warmer.

Looking at the bigger picture it now looks like 9 of the first 10 months of the year will have seen a CET more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean. The only time we have previously had 9 months more than 0.5C above average in one year was in 2002. That record is likely to fall this year.

In many ways the temperature profile in recent months has looked very similar to both 2006 and 2011. Those are also the two warmest years on record overall. This year could well break the record. Both 2006/7 and 2011/12 saw remarkably warm periods between November and January with a CET of 7C or higher, more than 1.5C above the mean.

I therefore think there is a high probability of us seeing another exceptionally warm winter this year. Of course it could go the other way and I would certainly not rule that out. 2005 saw a remarkably warm September and October after an average August. The period from November 2005 to March 2006 was persistently cool although never especially cold.

The only time we have had two consecutive winters with a CET greater than 6C was of course 1988/9 and 1989/90. I have a feeling we could match that feat this winter.

 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline ARTzeman  
#102 Posted : 19 October 2014 10:31:51(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,757
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley    12.1c.   Anomaly    0.7c.    Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                12.01c.  Anomaly    1.50c.

N- W                      12.7c.    Anomaly    2.31c.

Mount Sorrel           12.16c.  Anomaly    1.76c.

My Mean                 12.5c.   Anomaly     0.1c.

    

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline springsunshine  
#103 Posted : 19 October 2014 17:57:47(UTC)
springsunshine

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,164
Location: Bournemouth

Thank you GW for your excellent analysis and projections for the cet for the remainder of 2014.

Looking at the forecast for the rest of October,apart from a very brief dip to average temperatures on Tuesday and wedenesday this week,the rest of the month looks above average and I rekon there is more than a good chance October will finish above 12c.

Agree with your prediction of a warm winter this year with the azores high being a dominant feature of the uk weather bringing mild sw and west winds keeping the cold bottled up in the artic.There are no signals anywhere remotely hinting at anything cold yet,like the rest of this year even periods of average temperatures have been short lived.

My current October mean stands at 13.2c,the last two days have seen mean temperatures of 17/18c,ridiculusly warm for mid october

Offline Snow Hoper  
#104 Posted : 19 October 2014 19:52:41(UTC)
Snow Hoper

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 38,053
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Thorndon, Suffolk

I knew i should have left my first guess alone.

 

By the time you realise your parents were right, your kids already think that you're wrong!

Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.

Work: Around Bury St Edmunds.

Offline ARTzeman  
#105 Posted : 20 October 2014 11:41:43(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,757
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley      12.3c.    Anomaly    1.0c.     Provisional to  19th.

Metcheck                  12.11c.  Anomaly    1.60c.

N-W                        12.84c.   Anomaly    2.45c.  

Mount Sorrel            12.29c.  Anomaly    1.89c.

My   Mean               12.6c.    Anomaly     0.2c.

    

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Caz  
#106 Posted : 20 October 2014 21:17:27(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,180
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

A finishing CET of 11.8c would be just right for me. 

For while now I've had a feeling we'll have a mild winter.  Nothing scientific or clever, just a gut feeling that we're in a run of mild winters, probably after last winter and after a previous run of cold and snowy ones.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#107 Posted : 21 October 2014 11:30:19(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,757
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       12.3c.    Anomaly      1.0c.   Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                   12.12c   Anomaly      1.61c.

N-W                          12.85c.  Anomaly      2.46c.

Mount Sorrel              12.29c.  Anomaly      1.89c.

My  Mean                   12.6c.   Anomaly       0.2c.

  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Online Saint Snow  
#108 Posted : 21 October 2014 12:08:58(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 43,279
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

A finishing CET of 11.8c would be just right for me. 

 

I'd see 11.8c as me half dodging a bullet! After being sure of my guess, the charts moved toward a much more warm outlook.

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Caz  
#109 Posted : 21 October 2014 21:14:17(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,180
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

A finishing CET of 11.8c would be just right for me. 

 

I'd see 11.8c as me half dodging a bullet! After being sure of my guess, the charts moved toward a much more warm outlook.

Hmmm!  I see what you mean.  You have more to lose than I have.  I'm so far down the table I haven't a chance, but a CET of 11.8c would give me a much needed leg up and help me save face. 

If it's any consolation, my guesses are just wild guesses and gut feeling, as opposed to me trying to make head or tail of the charts, though I suppose that's obvious given my position at the bottom of the table.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#110 Posted : 22 October 2014 11:24:57(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,757
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office  Hadley       12.3c.     Anomaly   1.0c.    Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                    11.94c.   Anomaly   1.43c.

N-W                           12.76c.   Anomaly   2.37c.

Mount  Sorrel              12.12c.   Anomaly   1.72c .

My    Mean                  12.5c.    Anomaly    0.1c.

  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline ARTzeman  
#111 Posted : 23 October 2014 11:31:09(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,757
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley     12.1c.      Anomaly     1.0c.  Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                 11.90c.    Anomaly     1.39c.

N-W                        12.65c.    Anomaly     2.26c.

Mount    Sorrel        12.06c.     Anomaly     1.66c.

My   Mean               12.4c.      Anomaly      0.0c.

  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Stormchaser  
#112 Posted : 23 October 2014 18:42:35(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,753
Man
Location: West Hants

The shift towards keeping well above temperatures in place Mon-Fri next week sends the CET upward again, with a final figure of 12.3-12.4*C when using GFS projected values and starting with the provisional figure of 12.1*C to the 22nd.

GFS has been slightly undercooking the minimums in these mild, cloudy regimes such as looks to be in place next week, but on the other hand, the provisional figure tends to be a little too high, so the above seems a realistic expectation should the pattern evolve along the lines that GFS shows.

As always, that last line serves as a major caveat... but the ECM 12z shows strong support for the GFS outcome out to day 7, which takes us to 30th October, so confidence is fairly high 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline ARTzeman  
#113 Posted : 24 October 2014 11:02:36(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,757
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley    12.2c.   Anomaly  1.1c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                11.99c. Anomaly  1.48c.

N-W                       12.68c. Anomaly   2.29c.

Mount Sorrel           12.15c. Anomaly  1.75c.

My  Mean                12.4c.  Anomaly   0.0c.

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Gavin P  
#114 Posted : 24 October 2014 14:23:45(UTC)
Gavin P

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 35,142
Man
United Kingdom

2014 has been warming on steroids! Crazy weather!

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/

Offline Global Warming  
#115 Posted : 24 October 2014 21:25:45(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,125

Tomorrow will see temperatures close to average but after that the month ends on a very mild note.

It now looks like the CET will end up close to 12.3C which is almost 2C above the 1971-2000 average. What is remarkable is that is not at all unusual for October in recent years. Despite that very large anomaly October 2014 will be cooler than 2013, 2011, 2006, 2005 and 2001.

In fact the October CET mean for the 20 years 1995 - 2014 at 11.3C is 0.9C above the 1971-2000 mean of 10.4C. April also shows a 0.9C anomaly for the same period with February at 0.8C and September at 0.7C.

What is interesting is that the increase in mean temperatures in recent years is most notable in the late winter / early spring and also in early Autumn. During the summer and winter the rise is much lower (or even negative in the case of December).

The annual CET mean is now set to be at 11.76C at the end of October, easily the highest figure on record for the end of October. Indeed the annual CET has only ever hit 11.76C at any point once before which was on 22 October 1990.

The CET figures for August to October 2014 are remarkably similar to those of 2011. It will be really interesting to see what happens to temperatures over the rest of the year. There are plenty of reasons for thinking the very mild conditions will continue but there are also some pieces of evidence to suggest we may start to see some colder interludes before too long. Either way the rest of the year is going to be quite fascinating to follow.

 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by user 25 October 2014 07:13:38(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Gavin P  
#116 Posted : 24 October 2014 23:23:33(UTC)
Gavin P

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 35,142
Man
United Kingdom

Fascinating stuff  GW,

I may use your excellent charts/graphs for a Blog post tomorrow if that's OK?

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/

Offline Global Warming  
#117 Posted : 25 October 2014 06:48:28(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,125

Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post

Fascinating stuff  GW,

I may use your excellent charts/graphs for a Blog post tomorrow if that's OK?

Of course Gavin. Feel free to do so. 

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Gavin P  
#118 Posted : 25 October 2014 09:13:00(UTC)
Gavin P

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 35,142
Man
United Kingdom

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post

Fascinating stuff  GW,

I may use your excellent charts/graphs for a Blog post tomorrow if that's OK?

Of course Gavin. Feel free to do so. 

Thanks.

The annual CET tracker will be very useful in particular as we close in on the record (or possibly just miss out)

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/

Offline ARTzeman  
#119 Posted : 25 October 2014 10:32:39(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,757
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley     12.2c.    Anomaly    1.2c. Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                 11.93c.  Anomaly    1.42c.

N-W                        12.71c.  Anomaly    2.32c.

Mount  Sorrel           12.10c.  Anomaly     1.70c.

My  Mean                 12.4c.   Anomaly     0.0c.

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Global Warming  
#120 Posted : 26 October 2014 09:44:31(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,125

Latest estimate for the October CET is 12.24C

First look at November shows the mean for the first 8 days currently expected to come in at exactly 10C which is 1.5C above average.

So at the moment no sign of an end to the very mild weather.

The CET mean for 18 October could be a date record. My estimate and Hadley's is 16.3C. The highest ever recorded for that date is 16.0C in 1954.

 

Edited by user 26 October 2014 09:52:54(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Users browsing this topic
Similar Topics
October CET watch (Weather)
by Hungry Tiger 30/09/2017 13:32:18(UTC)
October CET watch (Weather)
by Global Warming 29/09/2016 22:25:36(UTC)
October CET watch (Weather)
by Global Warming 29/09/2015 21:31:20(UTC)
October CET watch (Weather)
by Global Warming 27/09/2013 09:21:58(UTC)
October CET watch (Weather)
by Global Warming 27/09/2012 17:17:33(UTC)
October CET watch (Weather)
by Global Warming 24/09/2010 22:38:00(UTC)
8 Pages«<45678>
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Code of conduct

× FORUM Settings Posting League USER PHOTOS Sky Eye Camera Sky Eye Live Sky Eye Gallery MODEL CHARTS Arome Arpege ECM ECM ENS GEM GEFS GFS HIRLAM Icon Met Office UM Fax CFS GFSP