After falling back in line with the 1971-2000 mean last Monday the CET has been rising again and will continue to do so today before levelling off and beginning a very slow fall until the end of the month.
By my calculations the CET moved back above 12C yesterday and could get as high as 12.25C today. Temperatures return to just above average during this week and may dip a little further by the end of the month.
At present I am estimating a final CET of 11.83C. However, it is still quite possible we could finish at 12C or above.
A final figure of 11.8C for October would result in the CET mean for the first 10 months of 2014 being the highest on record, exceeding the current record held by 1990.
The Autumn CET is tracking well above average but is only likely to be the joint 8th warmest on record for the first 2 months based on current output. 2005, 2006 and 2011 were all much warmer.
Looking at the bigger picture it now looks like 9 of the first 10 months of the year will have seen a CET more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean. The only time we have previously had 9 months more than 0.5C above average in one year was in 2002. That record is likely to fall this year.
In many ways the temperature profile in recent months has looked very similar to both 2006 and 2011. Those are also the two warmest years on record overall. This year could well break the record. Both 2006/7 and 2011/12 saw remarkably warm periods between November and January with a CET of 7C or higher, more than 1.5C above the mean.
I therefore think there is a high probability of us seeing another exceptionally warm winter this year. Of course it could go the other way and I would certainly not rule that out. 2005 saw a remarkably warm September and October after an average August. The period from November 2005 to March 2006 was persistently cool although never especially cold.
The only time we have had two consecutive winters with a CET greater than 6C was of course 1988/9 and 1989/90. I have a feeling we could match that feat this winter.