Expanding on the previous post, here's an excellent map of the latest SST anomalies:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png
It sure is cooking down in the MDR, in fact it looks to be near record-breaking to my eyes. There's a huge contrast between there and the Gulf of Mexico, which has been chilled by anomalous cold spilling south, just as we saw around the UK as a result of March.
The Caribbean is on the toasty side until you reach Florida's longitude, from which point eastward there are neutral, then negative, anomalies. Conditions in Texas have been phenominally cold (relatively speaking) of late, as is very much apparent in the waters there!
The neutral ENSO state is visible as a mix of +ve and -ve anomalies.
There is an interesting large area of +ve anomalies in the NE Pacific, which accompanies the persistent Pacific High there, the feature driving the central-U.S. trough pattern. This is keeping that region cool and wet, which is very different to many recent years, when a large part of the U.S. has been hot and dry, which may have introduced more dry, stable air into the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic, interfering with the numerous storms that formed during each of the past three seasons, keeping many from developing as much as anticipated. It could be that conditions are much more favourable for particularly intense storms this year.
Another key feature could be the active jet running through the Mediterranean, which has brought westerlies across N. Africa and kept the Saharan dust and dry air from making much progress into the tropical Atlantic.
It seems to me that the dice are really loaded, so no wonder the forecasts are on the high side. Personally, I think 2013 could give 2005 a run for it's money, though the storm tracks might tend to be further north and towards the East Coast. While recurving storms would then be the usual expectation, this year there is a fairly strong signal for anomalous heights near or over Newfoundland and Canada, which could promote tracks similar to Hurricane Sandy of 2012. A scary prospect indeed
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