http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/glbz700e3Mon.html
The CFS v2 model has updated and the prospects for May have changed quite a bit from the last update, in which a positive anomaly was shown to our east, whereas now it's shown to our NW, suggesting a contined dominance of the current tendency for low pressure to move across the UK.
The extent to which it does so is not clear, but there is a hint that it will tend to locate itself more to our SW, near the Azores.
With that in mind, May could see a mix of cool and warm - even very warm - periods, depending on the exact position and orientation of the major synoptic features.
Looking beyond a month out, and the v2 CFS model continues its trait of being rather vague and frankly not of much use. The signal for high latitude blocking in June does not build much confidence in fine conditions that month, however. July looks more promising with the chance of some continental high pressure getting in on the act, while August could be a cracker based on this latest update alone.
Its a fact that these outlooks have changed quite a bit with each new update. Considering a whole string of updates and looking for trends may produce a clearer signal, however the big change in the predicted May setup gives me cause to think otherwise.
I'm going to be watching the shorter range models for signs of low pressure digging down more towards the Azores, with high pressure moving closer to the UK as a result. It's come and gone of late, with the recent trend being for low pressure to attack more from the west or southwest but with those troughs becoming slow moving over the UK rather than to our SW.
If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email
[email protected] 🙂
https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On