This thread is for all comments, discussion, and analysis of temperatures in the UK during May, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest-running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own backyard.
For those taking part in the competition, all CET predictions for May should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Please do not post them directly into the thread.
Historic CET summary for May
1981-2010 (30 years) 11.66C
1991-2020 (30 years) 11.90C
2001-2020 (20 years) 12.02C
Last May was fairly chilly with a CET of just 10.1C. Prior to that 4 of the previous 5 years saw a CET above 12C with the highest being 13.3C in 2018.
Here is a chart of the May CET for all years since 1961
Direct link to a larger version of the chart
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Current model output
GEFS - the extended run from 0z on 30 April shows the GEFS mean above average every day from the 4th. That is very unusual and suggests a good chance of a fairly warm month.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=99&lid=ENS&bw=
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=99&lid=ENS&bw=
ECM (for de Bilt) shows a rather cool first week with something potentially warmer after that. Lots of scatter by the middle of the month but one or two runs do reach 30C surface temperature. The control run stays average / cool though.
https://www.weerplaza.nl/gdata/eps/eps_pluim_tt_06260.png
Met Office contingency planners outlook
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-mjj-v2.pdf
No one month summary this time. Really strange that Met O sometimes has a one month and 3 month summary in the contingency planners outlook and sometimes just has a 3 month summary. The 3 month outlook suggests only a 10% chance of cool weather. Rainfall shows little deviation from average in terms of probability. Very little narrative commentary this month.
Edited by moderator
30 June 2022 14:44:11
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Reason: Not specified