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Online Saint Snow  
#21 Posted : 04 January 2021 11:23:54(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 56,000
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

I very nearly went for 2.3c, using my usual prediction expertise - gut feeling or lucky numbers - 23rd January is my birthday!   

I turned it around though to 3.2c and I’m not sure that was wise!  So good luck Col!  

 

Given latest model output, I think your 3.2c will be nearer the mark than 2.3c

I'm fairly content with my 3.6c at this stage.

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Online Col  
#22 Posted : 04 January 2021 15:57:42(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,757
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Given latest model output, I think your 3.2c will be nearer the mark than 2.3c

I'm fairly content with my 3.6c at this stage.

 

We shall see, it's only day 4 and I'm not panicking yet. The second half of the month is still up for grabs and there is always the 'wildcard' of the SSW towards the end of the month to consider. As long as I can 'bank' some reasonable cold during the first half, dull & dreary days of 3/4C and temps a little below freezing would be fine to offset somewhat milder weather later.

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Online Saint Snow  
#23 Posted : 04 January 2021 19:15:56(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 56,000
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post

 

We shall see, it's only day 4 and I'm not panicking yet. The second half of the month is still up for grabs and there is always the 'wildcard' of the SSW towards the end of the month to consider. As long as I can 'bank' some reasonable cold during the first half, dull & dreary days of 3/4C and temps a little below freezing would be fine to offset somewhat milder weather later.

 

If you're closer to the mark than me, I won't be complaining 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Offline Caz  
#24 Posted : 05 January 2021 06:21:25(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 24,007
Woman
United Kingdom
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

If you're closer to the mark than me, I won't be complaining 

Me neither, especially if it comes with white stuff!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition

Offline ARTzeman  
#25 Posted : 05 January 2021 10:58:41(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,442
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        1.5c      Anomaly      -1.9c Provisional to 4th

Metcheck                      1.76c   Anomaly      -2.40c

Netweather                   2.38c   Anomaly      -1.83c

Peasedown St John     1.8c     Anomaly      -3.1c       

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#26 Posted : 06 January 2021 10:51:52(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,442
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        1.7c       Anomaly     -1.8c Provisional to 5th

Metcheck                     1.79c     Anomaly     -2.36c

Netweather                  2.45c     Anomaly     -1.76c

Peasedaown St John    1.9c      Anomaly     -3.0c.     

 Of 8 locals to PSJ   1.32c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Global Warming  
#27 Posted : 06 January 2021 21:29:53(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Here is the latest CET tracker.

Notwithstanding comments I have seen elsewhere on the forum it is absolutely the case that we are experiencing a very significant cold spell. The first 10 days of January are expected to see a CET of 1.13C which is 3.2C below average. That is very significant.

The final 4 days of December saw a CET of 0.4C which is 4.2C below average. 

The CET for the 14 days from 28 December to 10 January will be around 0.9C which is 3.6C below average.

From Monday the CET starts to turn much milder and by 20 January I expect the CET (on current output) to rise to 3.88C. Still below average but not by that much. If (and it is a big if) the milder weather continues to the end of the month we could even end up slightly above average in the mid 4s.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline ARTzeman  
#28 Posted : 07 January 2021 11:13:46(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,442
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        1.7c      Anomaly      -1.8c provisional to 6th

Metcheck                     1.55c    Anomaly       -2.66c

Netweather                  2.35c    Anomaly       -1.86c

Peasedown St John     1.4c      Anomaly       -3.5c.         

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Stormchaser  
#29 Posted : 07 January 2021 20:30:11(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 12,084
Man
Location: West Hants

Freezing mist and fog kept quite a few spots below zero today. I recorded a max of -0.7°C which is the lowest here since 2nd March 2018!

It was also a very cold night, could be an impressively low CET reading on the cards.

Gradually easing toward average in the coming days, then probably on the mild side for at least a time next week. Keep seeing runs that reintroduce chilly high pressure ridges, mind.

I must admit, I was a bit caught out by the spread of estimates this month - I was expecting to see more in the 1s and 2s!

My logic this month was, if it's ever going to be a sub-2°C, it's when you have a cold pattern in place coupled with cold signals for the mid-range and the possibility of cold(er) weather afterward associated with SSW response.


Now of course, those mid-range cold signals have been replaced with either mixed or mild depending on the model and run viewed. There was little sign of this at the end of December. Typical stuff.

I'm not without hope, though. The sudden stratospheric warming should continue to influence weather patterns for the remainder of the month and there are signs that tropical convection may not stay aligned with the La Nina base state, forcing higher pressure over Iberia, for more than a week.

All told, I'd not be surprised to see a 'banana' shape to this month's CET come the end of it.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2021's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline ARTzeman  
#30 Posted : 08 January 2021 10:52:36(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,442
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       1.3c      Anomaly     -2.2c Provisional to 7th

Metcheck                     1.33c   Anomaly     -2.82c

Netweather                  1.96c   Anomaly     -2.25c

Peasedown St John    1.4c      Anomaly     -3.5c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#31 Posted : 09 January 2021 10:46:21(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,442
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         1.0c        Anomaly      -2.5c Provisional to 8th

Metcheck                       1.22c     Anomaly      -2.93c

Netweather                    1.81c     Anomaly      -2.4c

Peasedown  St John      1.4c      Anomaly       3.5c.   

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#32 Posted : 10 January 2021 10:56:21(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,442
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       1.0c       Anomaliy     -2.5c provisional to 9th

Metcheck                    1.11c     Anomaly      -3.04c

Netweather                 1.65c     Anomaly      -2.56c

Peasedown St John    1.3c      Anomaly       -3.6c.      

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Global Warming  
#33 Posted : 10 January 2021 16:41:01(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Latest CET tracker shows the next four days should be somewhat less cold but by Friday things turn cooler again. Beyond that there is a lot of uncertainty but there are increasing signs of colder weather returning. 

At present the CET is predicted to be 3.22C by 24 January. However, I fully expect it could be a lot lower than that. 

The first 10 days of January will see a CET of just 0.9C which is 3.4C below average.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Edited by user 10 January 2021 21:29:23(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline redmoons  
#34 Posted : 10 January 2021 16:45:23(UTC)
redmoons

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,636
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Watford

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

In fact the first 10 days of 2021 is the coldest first 10 days of the year since 1893.

Wow that is amazing 

Andrew,

Watford

ASL 35m

Blog - http://www.andrewlalchan.com | Live weather - http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk

Offline Whether Idle  
#35 Posted : 10 January 2021 17:12:13(UTC)
Whether Idle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 9,193
Man
Location: Dover

Originally Posted by: redmoons Go to Quoted Post

 

Wow that is amazing 

What is more amazing is that Ive managed an air frost and I saw few small flakes of snow a couple of days ago!

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Offline Stormchaser  
#36 Posted : 10 January 2021 18:28:09(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 12,084
Man
Location: West Hants

Model madness continues but there's an underlying increase in support for very cold air to make its way in from the northeast within the 3rd week of the month, likely as part of a cyclonic setup (i.e. unstable i.e. high snow potential).

The GFS 12z was one of the colder outcomes, giving me a CET estimate to 26th in the mid-1s °C.

Yet there have been a fair few much milder outcomes appearing too, which while a dwindling cluster in the ensembles, can't be ignored. Those lift my CET estimate right up into the 3s or even 4s °C!

 

Funny really - coldest opening 10 days in the CET series in 128 years, while down here it's been nothing of much note (overall) and about half the days reached close to 5°C which is what I'd call 'very chilly' rather than cold.

No snow here either - but it did deliver a rare subzero maximum and one of the only ones I can recall with no snow cover. So it's had its moments! 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2021's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#37 Posted : 10 January 2021 19:39:32(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 249
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Aylesbury, Bucks

GW I must say am a little surprised that the CET was as high as that for the first ten days of 2010. I remember it as being a solidly sub zero CET period from my own recollections of the weather at the time/following the late Philip Eden's daily CET updates which he used to do back then.

Likewise 1997 and 2009 had bitter starts to January with several ice days at least IMBY. There must have been some mild days mixed in that I am forgetting!

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#38 Posted : 10 January 2021 19:57:39(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 9,387
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Coldest since 1893. That's unbelievable,  and barely a flake of snow for over half the country. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Offline Bolty  
#39 Posted : 10 January 2021 20:46:13(UTC)
Bolty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 5,063
Man
Location: Blackrod, near Chorley, Lancs - alt: 156m

Yes, I am also very surprised at those statistics. My memories of early January 2010 was that they were brutally cold with bitterly cold nights and sub-zero days, with that snowmaggedon event on 4-5 January. This year has seen overnight frosts, but most of the days have just about creeped above freezing. I recognise, I'm talking from a local perspective, but surely it was similar for most places.

Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station

Offline lanky  
#40 Posted : 10 January 2021 21:17:03(UTC)
lanky

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 5,207
Man

Originally Posted by: Bolty Go to Quoted Post

Yes, I am also very surprised at those statistics. My memories of early January 2010 was that they were brutally cold with bitterly cold nights and sub-zero days, with that snowmaggedon event on 4-5 January. This year has seen overnight frosts, but most of the days have just about creeped above freezing. I recognise, I'm talking from a local perspective, but surely it was similar for most places.

This was commented on in the "worst cold spell" thread below

It looks very much that the table compared mean temperatures in 2020 with the maximum temperatures for other years

1963 for instance should say -0.57

Martin

Richmond, Surrey

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