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Offline DEW  
#21 Posted : 20 July 2019 06:29:36(UTC)
DEW

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Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 Go to Quoted Post


Sunday afternoon in the USA/ Even northern Canada looking quite toasty!


 30c not that far from the Arctic circle and 24c reaching the Arctic circle too!!



I heard a report on the radio that the furthest north weather station, on the Arctic coast of Canada, had recorded 21C, easily beating the previous record (though AFAIK records haven't been kept that long) and well above the 5C expected in July


SSTs off the eastern coast of the USA must be rising - will help to intensify and prolong hurricanes if we get any in that region later on. If the trend continues, could we, very speculatively, see hurricanes forming there in future years?

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Offline TimS  
#22 Posted : 20 July 2019 10:44:24(UTC)
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Guesses for hottest U.K. temperature of next week?

On current output I’d go for something like 34.6C. Hottest of the year, but not in record territory.

France should get a 42C somewhere and I think Belgium / NL / Germany will see 38s.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Essan  
#23 Posted : 20 July 2019 12:26:26(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: DEW Go to Quoted Post


 I heard a report on the radio that the furthest north weather station, on the Arctic coast of Canada, had recorded 21C, easily beating the previous record (though AFAIK records haven't been kept that long) and well above the 5C expected in July




Alert

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/heat-wave-alert-nunavut-1.5212801

Andy
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Offline TimS  
#24 Posted : 20 July 2019 12:47:53(UTC)
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Alert is one of the locations I have on my iPhone weather app for fun weather extremes. It’s there for lowest summertime temperatures, along with Yakutsk (lowest winter temps), Basra and Death Valley (hottest summer temps) and Turpan (biggest annual range).


Alert has been in the teens recently which is very unusual. Usually around the 5-7C mark in high summer.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline four  
#25 Posted : 20 July 2019 13:04:40(UTC)
four

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It must have been a very brief plume as they are on 2C for the foreseeable.
https://weather.gc.ca/pa...index_e.html?station=ylt
Offline Global Warming  
#26 Posted : 20 July 2019 13:49:26(UTC)
Global Warming

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ARPEGE 6z has 34C in London on Tuesday


http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/runs/2019072000/arpegeuk-41-86-0.png?20-06


WRF has 33C on Tuesday with 34C on Wednesday


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm-eur/runs/2019072006/nmm-0-81-0.png?20-13


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm-eur/runs/2019072006/nmm-0-105-0.png?20-14


 


Dangerous Humidex levels due to high humidity


39C on Tuesday http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm-eur/runs/2019072006/nmm-47-84-0.png?20-14


43C on Wednesday http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm-eur/runs/2019072006/nmm-47-105-0.png?20-14


The ARPEGE data looks wonky. It has dew points over 20C in the west but 10C lower in the east hence I have ignored its humidex readings


Dew points from WRF widely above 20C. As high as 24C on Wednesday. That must be overdoing it surely. Literally a melting pot.


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm-eur/runs/2019072006/nmm-18-84-0.png?20-14


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm-eur/runs/2019072006/nmm-18-109-0.png?20-14

Edited by user 20 July 2019 13:57:55(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline Gusty  
#27 Posted : 20 July 2019 20:52:56(UTC)
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ECM 12z is still progging near record breaking temperatures on Thursday.


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Offline TimS  
#28 Posted : 20 July 2019 20:56:53(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post


ECM 12z is still progging near record breaking temperatures on Thursday.




Interestinv that the hottest temperature of 37C is almost precisely over Brogdale. Wouldn’t that be a laugh.

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Offline Gusty  
#29 Posted : 20 July 2019 21:05:07(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: TimS Go to Quoted Post


 Interestinv that the hottest temperature of 37C is almost precisely over Brogdale. Wouldn’t that be a laugh.



It would Tim ! 


By that stage it would be day 4 of the heatwave and with uppers above 20c coupled with a more SSW'ly flow and some local fohn effects from the Downs to the south of Brogdale the possibility is definitely there, especially so if the sunshine is prolonged. 


Bear in mind that these Max T2M's often undercook by a couple of degrees.


IMO 40c is up for grabs...maybe not this year. Its getting closer though. 


As an aside the measure of warmth in Southern England seems to be shifting. 24c or 25c feels like a standard summer day down here these days. 


Back in the 80's when the circular red coloured 25c was shown on the BBC forecast it was time to get excited and head for the nearest beach. 

Edited by user 20 July 2019 21:10:41(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline TimS  
#30 Posted : 20 July 2019 21:17:20(UTC)
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Ah the old circular red 25C. The good old days.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Brian Gaze  
#31 Posted : 21 July 2019 06:48:04(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post


As an aside the measure of warmth in Southern England seems to be shifting. 24c or 25c feels like a standard summer day down here these days. 


Back in the 80's when the circular red coloured 25c was shown on the BBC forecast it was time to get excited and head for the nearest beach. 



That's my recollection too. Now it seems all we need is a gentle waft from the south for a couple of days and temperatures hit 30C.

Brian Gaze
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Offline RobN  
#32 Posted : 21 July 2019 06:58:37(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post


 


That's my recollection too. Now it seems all we need is a gentle waft from the south for a couple of days and temperatures hit 30C.



And conversely, it seems that nowadays in winter IMBY a straight northerly struggles to produce an overnight ground frost.

Rob
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Offline howham  
#33 Posted : 21 July 2019 09:01:41(UTC)
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Whereas here when it went orange (20C) we went to the beach...
Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#34 Posted : 21 July 2019 09:35:05(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

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Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post


ECM 12z is still progging near record breaking temperatures on Thursday.




I like these charts. Where do I find them?

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Mark
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Offline TimS  
#35 Posted : 21 July 2019 11:01:22(UTC)
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Just as with June, it’s worth keeping an eye on temperature record potential on the near continent.

Clearly France won’t beat its insane value of 45.9C set in June [EDI: I see a late entry - Verargues - managed to come in, Brogdale style, with a round 46.0C], but this time the main heat is in the North and centre and there are a few cities that could well beat their July heat records.

The excellent la chaîne météo (is this the same company as the weather channel?) has multiple articles including this one pinpointing the local records:

https://actualite.lachainemeteo.com/actualite-meteo/2019-07-21/canicule-records-de-chaleur-en-vue-51685

What I’m particularly interested in is the all time records for Belgium (38.8C) and the Netherlands (38.6C). Both are very old - 1947 (and equalled on both 2015 and 2018) and 1944 respectively. Given they’re not far above the U.K. record despite being continental I think they may be there for the taking on Thursday. They are less vulnerable to a slightly earlier breakdown too. ECM shows values over 40 and GFS shows 39C in Belgium.

Germany’s record is above 40 and looks a bit safer as they will be to the East of the most intense heat.

Edited by user 21 July 2019 11:03:18(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline TimS  
#36 Posted : 21 July 2019 16:50:31(UTC)
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Remarkably quiet in here considering we could see national records and possibly even a U.K. July record next week.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#37 Posted : 21 July 2019 17:37:32(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

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Originally Posted by: TimS Go to Quoted Post
Remarkably quiet in here considering we could see national records and possibly even a U.K. July record next week.


Im excited. 2003 stay with me in so many ways.


I remember MVH posting that it was still on late on the Saturday. Then I caught a BBC forecast and they had 37C.


It was made so exciting because we thought the Wednesday had been the chance and it had gone.


 


 

Mark
Stratford, London
Offline Quantum  
#38 Posted : 21 July 2019 18:10:11(UTC)
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I think we will see the highest ever July day and there are three opportunites where that could happen Tue/Wed/Thur though Thur is the most likely.


Also think there is a decent chance ~35% we will beat the all time UK record and if that happens it will happen on Thursday.


 

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Offline tallyho_83  
#39 Posted : 21 July 2019 18:19:03(UTC)
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Thursday mid Afternoon - Gosh ! Love the Northern Hemisphere view:


Look at the heat so localised over Northern France and Belgium? Paris and Brussels are in the firing line for this heatwave! Paris could reach +41 maybe +42c on Thursday- Maybe breaking some records there or a deja-vu of the heat this time last month!?


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2988507


EXCITING STUFF!!


Also anyone explain to me why Mainland Greenland remains below freezing and the North Pole/Arctic is above freezing/milder?



 

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Edited by user 21 July 2019 18:22:24(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline Quantum  
#40 Posted : 21 July 2019 18:19:57(UTC)
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Also just for fun I'm pretty convinced Paris will see its all time record high of 40.1C fall.


 

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