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Offline ARTzeman  
#141 Posted : 17 July 2019 10:14:25(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,189
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley     16.8c.       Anomaly      0.9c. Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                  16.70c      Anomaly      0.23c

Netweather               17.27c      Anomaly      0.78c

Mean of my 10 stations 17.65c  Difference    -0.4c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Stormchaser  
#142 Posted : 17 July 2019 20:05:42(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,774
Man
Location: West Hants

Model madness with next week... ECM 00z was good for a CET in the high 17s to low 18s by 26th, FV3 similar with a final CET in the mid to high 18s, but the ECM 12z much fresher after Tue with the CET struggling to keep itself in the 17s!

If we were making our CET estimations now, we'd still be prone to some major mistakes!

 

Of course this is all academic to me now; after June's terrible act (which I will never forgive), there's little joy left for me here beyond examining what extreme solutions might do to the CET out of pure, slightly deranged interest .

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Col  
#143 Posted : 17 July 2019 20:38:58(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 968
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

Model madness with next week... ECM 00z was good for a CET in the high 17s to low 18s by 26th, FV3 similar with a final CET in the mid to high 18s, but the ECM 12z much fresher after Tue with the CET struggling to keep itself in the 17s!

If we were making our CET estimations now, we'd still be prone to some major mistakes!

 

Of course this is all academic to me now; after June's terrible act (which I will never forgive), there's little joy left for me here beyond examining what extreme solutions might do to the CET out of pure, slightly deranged interest .

Well I've gone for 17.42C. And in the last couple of days with all this talk of heatwaves this is the first time this month that I've seriously thought I might be rather too low!

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Online Caz  
#144 Posted : 18 July 2019 03:12:08(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,500
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post

Well I've gone for 17.42C. And in the last couple of days with all this talk of heatwaves this is the first time this month that I've seriously thought I might be rather too low!

Same here!  Although unlike you, I haven’t anything to lose as I’m holding the table up from near the bottom.  I’m never in the lead but I don’t think I’ve ever been this far down!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#145 Posted : 18 July 2019 10:24:27(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,189
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        16.9c        Anomaly       0.9c. Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                     16.78c      Anomaly       0.34c

Netweather                  17.36        Anomaly       0.87c

Mean of my 10 stations     17.75c    Difference    0.06c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Online Hungry Tiger  
#146 Posted : 19 July 2019 00:41:17(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,862
Location: South Cambridgeshire

I've ballsed up badly this month having gone for 16.5C. loking more like 18.5C at this rate.

 

Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93metres asl.

Offline ARTzeman  
#147 Posted : 19 July 2019 09:51:52(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,189
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley            16.9c.         Anomaly         1.0c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                         16.75c        Anomaly          0.29c

Netweather                      17.38c        Anomaly          0.88c.

Mean of my 10 stations     17.7c.        Anomaly          0.01c.

  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Stormchaser  
#148 Posted : 19 July 2019 11:47:09(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,774
Man
Location: West Hants

Some staggering model runs cropping up here and there.

The latest operational example being the FV3 06z. The hottest so far when excluding ensembles.

So JFF... my rough CET estimate rockets all the way into the high 18s as of 29th. For a month that's had so little notable heat prior to the final 10 days, that would be quite some feat.


00z from the same model kept the CET estimate over a degree lower. All we can do is shrug and wonder!

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Online Bertwhistle  
#149 Posted : 19 July 2019 15:37:03(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,802
Location: Central Southern England

Guessing we'll cross the 17 threshold Sunday or Monday. Should step up a notch at a time for a few days thereafter.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Online Global Warming  
#150 Posted : 20 July 2019 09:05:16(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,158

Hadley provisional CET is running slightly more than 0.5C above my estimate this month. So a very large downward adjustment is expected this month. 

Currently my CET estimate is 16.27C up to yesterday. Not expecting to break the 17C mark until Wednesday. 

Latest estimate for the final July CET is 17.70C which is exactly 1C above the 1981-2010 mean. Could be higher depending on how long the heat sticks around at the end of next week.

Latest output suggests three CET date records this week are likely on Tuesday to Thursday. Highest figure of 24.3C on Wednesday. For comparison the highest CET mean ever recorded in July was 24.7C on 4 July 1976.

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline ARTzeman  
#151 Posted : 20 July 2019 10:14:47(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,189
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley            16.8c.        Anomaly      0.9c   Provisional to19th.

Metcheck                         16.75c        Anomaly     0.28c

Netweather                      17.32c        Anomaly     0.83c

Mean of my 10 stations 17.78c  Difference      0.89c.                   

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Online Bertwhistle  
#152 Posted : 20 July 2019 11:15:16(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,802
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Hadley provisional CET is running slightly more than 0.5C above my estimate this month. So a very large downward adjustment is expected this month. 

Currently my CET estimate is 16.27C up to yesterday. Not expecting to break the 17C mark until Wednesday. 

Latest estimate for the final July CET is 17.70C which is exactly 1C above the 1981-2010 mean. Could be higher depending on how long the heat sticks around at the end of next week.

Latest output suggests three CET date records this week are likely on Tuesday to Thursday. Highest figure of 24.3C on Wednesday. For comparison the highest CET mean ever recorded in July was 24.7C on 4 July 1976.

Thanks GW- some interesting days ahead.

Think the CET average for July is 16.0? Which would put your (very pleasing) estimate at +1.7 rather than +1.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Online Global Warming  
#153 Posted : 20 July 2019 11:50:48(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,158

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

 

Thanks GW- some interesting days ahead.

Think the CET average for July is 16.0? Which would put your (very pleasing) estimate at +1.7 rather than +1.

16.0C is the 1961-1990 average.

16.7C is the 1981-2010 average which is the figure I use.

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Online Bertwhistle  
#154 Posted : 20 July 2019 12:13:10(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,802
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

 

16.0C is the 1961-1990 average.

16.7C is the 1981-2010 average which is the figure I use.

Thank you for clarifying that. 

I think I'll stick with the 61-90 for my own uses, as this is still quoted as the standard period of reference by the WMO. Those are also the averages listed on the Hadley dataset so I just find it easier to refer to.

In the meantime, if your estimate is good I might actually get close for once!

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline TimS  
#155 Posted : 20 July 2019 12:41:50(UTC)
TimS

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 9,509
Location: Brockley

Still don’t understand why the Met Office can’t adjust the preliminary numbers as they go along given how easy it seems to be to do.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Gavin P  
#156 Posted : 20 July 2019 13:17:23(UTC)
Gavin P

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 35,266
Man
United Kingdom

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Hadley provisional CET is running slightly more than 0.5C above my estimate this month. So a very large downward adjustment is expected this month. 

Currently my CET estimate is 16.27C up to yesterday. Not expecting to break the 17C mark until Wednesday. 

Latest estimate for the final July CET is 17.70C which is exactly 1C above the 1981-2010 mean. Could be higher depending on how long the heat sticks around at the end of next week.

Latest output suggests three CET date records this week are likely on Tuesday to Thursday. Highest figure of 24.3C on Wednesday. For comparison the highest CET mean ever recorded in July was 24.7C on 4 July 1976.

 

Thanks GW! A 17C CET July is bang in line with the expectations from my Summer forecast (after a relatively cool and unsettled June)

Can we get August to 18C - That's the question on which my Summer forecast soars... Or sinks! 

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/

Online Global Warming  
#157 Posted : 20 July 2019 13:42:00(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,158

Here are the date records from Tuesday of this week as we may have a chance of breaking some of these. Many of them were only set last year!

Link to full sized table

The 1900 records on the 24rd and 25th look especially vulnerable

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline ARTzeman  
#158 Posted : 21 July 2019 11:20:49(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,189
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley            16.9c.    Anomaly    0.9c Provisional to   20th.

Metcheck                         16.76c   Anomaly    0.29c

Netweather                      17.36c   Anomaly    0.87c.

Mean of my 10 stations   17.7c  Difference   0.01c.         

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Online Saint Snow  
#159 Posted : 22 July 2019 08:35:37(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 44,079
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Latest estimate for the final July CET is 17.70C which is exactly 1C above the 1981-2010 mean. Could be higher depending on how long the heat sticks around at the end of next week.

 

I'd take that

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline ARTzeman  
#160 Posted : 22 July 2019 09:54:30(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,189
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         16.9c.        Anomaly      1.0c. Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                      16.86c       Anomaly      0.39c

Netweather                   17.39c       Anomaly      0.39c.

Men of my 10 stations    17.75c  Difference    0.06c  Using a  6 - year average. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

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