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July UK Temperature analysis and discussion
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 27,031  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 16.8c. Anomaly 0.9c. Provisional to 16th. Metcheck 16.70c Anomaly 0.23c Netweather 17.27c Anomaly 0.78c Mean of my 10 stations 17.65c Difference -0.4c. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 11,847 Location: West Hants
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Model madness with next week... ECM 00z was good for a CET in the high 17s to low 18s by 26th, FV3 similar with a final CET in the mid to high 18s, but the ECM 12z much fresher after Tue with the CET struggling to keep itself in the 17s! If we were making our CET estimations now, we'd still be prone to some major mistakes! Of course this is all academic to me now; after June's terrible act (which I will never forgive), there's little joy left for me here beyond examining what extreme solutions might do to the CET out of pure, slightly deranged interest   . |
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Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2018's Homeland Extremes: T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar) Keep Calm and Forecast On |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,098
Location: Bolton 160m asl
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Originally Posted by: Stormchaser  Model madness with next week... ECM 00z was good for a CET in the high 17s to low 18s by 26th, FV3 similar with a final CET in the mid to high 18s, but the ECM 12z much fresher after Tue with the CET struggling to keep itself in the 17s! If we were making our CET estimations now, we'd still be prone to some major mistakes! Of course this is all academic to me now; after June's terrible act (which I will never forgive), there's little joy left for me here beyond examining what extreme solutions might do to the CET out of pure, slightly deranged interest . Well I've gone for 17.42C. And in the last couple of days with all this talk of heatwaves this is the first time this month that I've seriously thought I might be rather too low! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 20,273  Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: Col Well I've gone for 17.42C. And in the last couple of days with all this talk of heatwaves this is the first time this month that I've seriously thought I might be rather too low! Same here! Although unlike you, I haven’t anything to lose as I’m holding the table up from near the bottom. I’m never in the lead but I don’t think I’ve ever been this far down!  |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 27,031 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 16.9c Anomaly 0.9c. Provisional to 17th. Metcheck 16.78c Anomaly 0.34c Netweather 17.36 Anomaly 0.87c Mean of my 10 stations 17.75c Difference 0.06c. |
Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,072
Location: South Cambridgeshire
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I've ballsed up badly this month having gone for 16.5C. loking more like 18.5C at this rate. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 27,031 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 16.9c. Anomaly 1.0c. Provisional to 18th. Metcheck 16.75c Anomaly 0.29c Netweather 17.38c Anomaly 0.88c. Mean of my 10 stations 17.7c. Anomaly 0.01c. |
Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 11,847 Location: West Hants
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Some staggering model runs cropping up here and there. The latest operational example being the FV3 06z. The hottest so far when excluding ensembles. So JFF... my rough CET estimate rockets all the way into the high 18s as of 29th. For a month that's had so little notable heat prior to the final 10 days, that would be quite some feat.
00z from the same model kept the CET estimate over a degree lower. All we can do is shrug and wonder!
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If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2018's Homeland Extremes: T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar) Keep Calm and Forecast On |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,115
Location: Central Southern England
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Guessing we'll cross the 17 threshold Sunday or Monday. Should step up a notch at a time for a few days thereafter. |
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Remember Finlake! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,258
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Hadley provisional CET is running slightly more than 0.5C above my estimate this month. So a very large downward adjustment is expected this month. Currently my CET estimate is 16.27C up to yesterday. Not expecting to break the 17C mark until Wednesday. Latest estimate for the final July CET is 17.70C which is exactly 1C above the 1981-2010 mean. Could be higher depending on how long the heat sticks around at the end of next week. Latest output suggests three CET date records this week are likely on Tuesday to Thursday. Highest figure of 24.3C on Wednesday. For comparison the highest CET mean ever recorded in July was 24.7C on 4 July 1976. |
Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 27,031 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 16.8c. Anomaly 0.9c Provisional to19th. Metcheck 16.75c Anomaly 0.28c Netweather 17.32c Anomaly 0.83c Mean of my 10 stations 17.78c Difference 0.89c. |
Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,115
Location: Central Southern England
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Originally Posted by: Global Warming Hadley provisional CET is running slightly more than 0.5C above my estimate this month. So a very large downward adjustment is expected this month. Currently my CET estimate is 16.27C up to yesterday. Not expecting to break the 17C mark until Wednesday. Latest estimate for the final July CET is 17.70C which is exactly 1C above the 1981-2010 mean. Could be higher depending on how long the heat sticks around at the end of next week. Latest output suggests three CET date records this week are likely on Tuesday to Thursday. Highest figure of 24.3C on Wednesday. For comparison the highest CET mean ever recorded in July was 24.7C on 4 July 1976. Thanks GW- some interesting days ahead. Think the CET average for July is 16.0? Which would put your (very pleasing) estimate at +1.7 rather than +1. |
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Remember Finlake! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,258
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Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Thanks GW- some interesting days ahead. Think the CET average for July is 16.0? Which would put your (very pleasing) estimate at +1.7 rather than +1. 16.0C is the 1961-1990 average. 16.7C is the 1981-2010 average which is the figure I use. |
Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,115
Location: Central Southern England
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Originally Posted by: Global Warming 16.0C is the 1961-1990 average. 16.7C is the 1981-2010 average which is the figure I use. Thank you for clarifying that. I think I'll stick with the 61-90 for my own uses, as this is still quoted as the standard period of reference by the WMO. Those are also the averages listed on the Hadley dataset so I just find it easier to refer to. In the meantime, if your estimate is good I might actually get close for once! |
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Remember Finlake! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 9,588
Location: Brockley
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Still don’t understand why the Met Office can’t adjust the preliminary numbers as they go along given how easy it seems to be to do. |
Brockley, South East London 30m asl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 35,320 
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Originally Posted by: Global Warming Hadley provisional CET is running slightly more than 0.5C above my estimate this month. So a very large downward adjustment is expected this month. Currently my CET estimate is 16.27C up to yesterday. Not expecting to break the 17C mark until Wednesday. Latest estimate for the final July CET is 17.70C which is exactly 1C above the 1981-2010 mean. Could be higher depending on how long the heat sticks around at the end of next week. Latest output suggests three CET date records this week are likely on Tuesday to Thursday. Highest figure of 24.3C on Wednesday. For comparison the highest CET mean ever recorded in July was 24.7C on 4 July 1976. Thanks GW! A 17C CET July is bang in line with the expectations from my Summer forecast (after a relatively cool and unsettled June) Can we get August to 18C - That's the question on which my Summer forecast soars... Or sinks!   |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,258
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Here are the date records from Tuesday of this week as we may have a chance of breaking some of these. Many of them were only set last year! Link to full sized table The 1900 records on the 24rd and 25th look especially vulnerable |
Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 27,031 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 16.9c. Anomaly 0.9c Provisional to 20th. Metcheck 16.76c Anomaly 0.29c Netweather 17.36c Anomaly 0.87c. Mean of my 10 stations 17.7c Difference 0.01c. |
Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 46,022 Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Global Warming Latest estimate for the final July CET is 17.70C which is exactly 1C above the 1981-2010 mean. Could be higher depending on how long the heat sticks around at the end of next week. I'd take that |
"Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect."
Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 27,031 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 16.9c. Anomaly 1.0c. Provisional to 21st. Metcheck 16.86c Anomaly 0.39c Netweather 17.39c Anomaly 0.39c. Men of my 10 stations 17.75c Difference 0.06c Using a 6 - year average. |
Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn
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July UK Temperature analysis and discussion
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