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Offline Hickster  
#1 Posted : 17 July 2019 16:49:49(UTC)
Hickster

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Posts: 1,963
United Kingdom

Signs of a coming heatwave w/c 22nd July.  850Hpa look likely to touch 20+ during next week on some runs and without the cool boundary layer present during the previous plume, temperatures at the surface should respond in a more characteristic manner.  There is certainly a potential for several days >30°C, possibly approaching 35°C in favoured spots.

While this appears at this stage to mostly apply to the southern half of the UK, some runs show warm air extending further north later this week though it all depends on how strong the jet stream is and how long the Atlantic Low sits out to the NW.

Edited by user 22 July 2019 11:39:46(UTC)  | Reason: Title update

Brexit - Let's do it!

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Offline Hickster  
#2 Posted : 17 July 2019 16:59:01(UTC)
Hickster

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I'll also add that much of France also expecting canicule conditions next week. Disneyland Paris has 37°C for next Tuesday.
Brexit - Let's do it!

Etchingham, E Sussex

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Offline Tim A  
#3 Posted : 17 July 2019 17:55:21(UTC)
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GFS 12z has 31c into Northern England Wednesday and Thursday with 33c in spots further south.
Hopefully a growing trend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_171_5.png

 

Tim

NW Leeds (1 mile east of LBA)

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Offline TimS  
#4 Posted : 17 July 2019 19:19:57(UTC)
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Yep, canicule: 42C widely in France next week. Even in the cooler runs.

Much of France is in serious drought. River basins are at “crisis” level in multiple departments and some have been there or thereabouts since last September.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Hungry Tiger  
#5 Posted : 17 July 2019 19:26:02(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

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The BBC on Look East have flagged up 31C for next Wednesday - Looks like our contiental neighbours are going to get a dose of 40C plus for the second time in a few weeks.

Gavin S.

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Offline Bertwhistle  
#6 Posted : 17 July 2019 19:37:09(UTC)
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TS at the Beeb estimates 32°C at peak; hard to know how the low and high to its N will interact; a flash in the pan, a short burst of heat, or several days of high temperatures; some models even recharging beyond the following weekend.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Online Maunder Minimum  
#7 Posted : 17 July 2019 19:48:55(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: TimS Go to Quoted Post
Yep, canicule: 42C widely in France next week. Even in the cooler runs.

Much of France is in serious drought. River basins are at “crisis” level in multiple departments and some have been there or thereabouts since last September.

That must be a serious issue for energy supplies - France relies on HEP for @ 12% of its energy needs and all those nuclear plants (@ 72%) need a lot of cooling.

 

EUphiles will stop at nothing to prevent the UK from regaining its lost independence.
Offline Stormchaser  
#8 Posted : 17 July 2019 20:14:11(UTC)
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The chance of a hot spell spanning Mon until at least Tue for the UK and Sun to at least Wed for France, with peak temps at least the low 30s for the UK and high 30s for France (given parched terrain maximising temps for the setup), seems pretty high.

A longer run of hot weather with higher peak temps seems to be a coin toss at this point in time; models swinging wildly on this as it seems that the precise details of the Atlantic trough on Mon-Tue strongly influence the duration of the event.

 

It's a nasty situation for those in charge of heat-health warnings or similar; a potential high-end event mostly dependant on what happens in what will shortly be 4-5 days from now.

Big risk of a false positive, but that could arguably be worse than a false negative (the negative implied by issuing no warnings).

 

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Offline Col  
#9 Posted : 17 July 2019 20:18:07(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Tim A Go to Quoted Post

GFS 12z has 31c into Northern England Wednesday and Thursday with 33c in spots further south.
Hopefully a growing trend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_171_5.png

 

31C in Bolton, ha ha I'll believe that when I see it!

Col

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Offline Gusty  
#10 Posted : 17 July 2019 21:17:17(UTC)
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Jeez. We are holidaying in Southern Vendee, Western France next week between 24th July and the 1st August. It will be interesting to experience 40+ heat if this does materialise. 

EDIT..I've just noticed the insanely hot 0z ECM placing temperatures of 38-41c down there next week has been replaced with a fresher 25-28c by Thursday thanks to some atlantic influence.

Its knife edge stuff..even for France.

Edited by user 17 July 2019 21:22:00(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline Bertwhistle  
#11 Posted : 17 July 2019 21:21:09(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

Jeez. We are holidaying in Southern Vendee, Western France next week between 24th July and the 1st August. It will be interesting to experience 40+ heat if this does materialise. 

Experienced 43C in inland Gambia at the end of the dry season 1992. Not nice. Stood in the shade of a massive termite mound and it still hurt like hell.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Gusty  
#12 Posted : 17 July 2019 21:23:08(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

 Experienced 43C in inland Gambia at the end of the dry season 1992. Not nice. Stood in the shade of a massive termite mound and it still hurt like hell.

You're not selling it too well Bertie ! 

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Offline DEW  
#13 Posted : 18 July 2019 06:09:49(UTC)
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General review of continental heat and dryness here

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Another-Brutal-Heat-Wave-May-Team-Drought-Europe-Next-Week

and a postscript on similar conditions in the US expected a bit later on.

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Offline TimS  
#14 Posted : 18 July 2019 06:27:35(UTC)
TimS

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Location: Brockley

Originally Posted by: DEW Go to Quoted Post

General review of continental heat and dryness here

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Another-Brutal-Heat-Wave-May-Team-Drought-Europe-Next-Week

and a postscript on similar conditions in the US expected a bit later on.

The category 6 site is IMO the best general weather blog out there. They covered the June heatwave very well. Preconditions are indeed quite different from June: no rain for a month in much of France and very dry soils. This should mean hotter diurnal maxes than would happen otherwise, more sunshine, and cooler night minima.

Macon so far this month is 1.5C above normal for min, but 3.0C above for max.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline TimS  
#15 Posted : 18 July 2019 10:26:44(UTC)
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Location: Brockley

Increasing signs of that rare event, a cataclysmic thundery breakdown / Spanish plume from mid next week. This will be one to watch.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Online Brian Gaze  
#16 Posted : 18 July 2019 10:42:31(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

Jeez. We are holidaying in Southern Vendee, Western France next week between 24th July and the 1st August. It will be interesting to experience 40+ heat if this does materialise. 

Was in L'Isle-sur-la-Sorgue when the temp hit 43C (ish) last month. No problem at all but it was hot. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Online doctormog  
#17 Posted : 18 July 2019 12:02:43(UTC)
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Posts: 69,222

There is an excessive heat watch in place here (DC region) and lots of the northeast US for tomorrow for heat index values up to 46°C. Having experienced 40°C before compared with the 36°C yesterday, the latter was much worse due to significantly higher humidity.

Seemingly quite a few record high minima may be set across parts of NE US in the next couple of days. Even by the hot and sticky weather that is the norm in summer on the eastern seaboard this is oppressive. Heat is fine, hot and humid makes it much more difficult to cool down.

Offline TimS  
#18 Posted : 19 July 2019 11:43:58(UTC)
TimS

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Location: Brockley

I got the usual today from a colleague: "what happened to that heatwave you were predicting? Look outside, it's pouring down."
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Hickster  
#19 Posted : 19 July 2019 11:51:56(UTC)
Hickster

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Posts: 1,963
United Kingdom

06z GFS operational showing heat extending out beyond next weekend with it and 2 other members still above 30°C on the 29th.
Brexit - Let's do it!

Etchingham, E Sussex

110m asl

Offline tallyho_83  
#20 Posted : 19 July 2019 18:22:30(UTC)
tallyho_83

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Location: Devon

Sunday afternoon in the USA/ Even northern Canada looking quite toasty!

 30c not that far from the Arctic circle and 24c reaching the Arctic circle too!!

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Edited by user 19 July 2019 18:49:56(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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