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Offline ARTzeman  
#81 Posted : 25 May 2019 11:59:38(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,060
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         10.9c.      Anomaly     -0.0c. Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                      10.80c     Anomaly     -0.16c

Netweather                   11.5c       Anomaly     -0.16c

Mean of my 10 stations   11.74c.   Anomaly    -0.28c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Caz  
#82 Posted : 25 May 2019 12:13:37(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,403
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Well this month looks like being cool throughout. No real warm up in the second half. In fact the next two days will see the highest positive temperature anomalies of the month and even those are not very impressive and are mainly due to high minimums.

Now looking at potentially a sub 11C month. Current May CET estimate is 10.96C. That would be the coolest May since 2015 and only the fourth time the May CET has been below 11C since 1996.

Expect a significant downward adjustment again this month. Hadley is currently running 0.43C above my estimate.

Crikey!  So the current CET is even worse than it looks!  I am surprised because we really have had some lovely weather this month, although a few frosty nights early on and low night temps all month, so I suspect the minima have kept it down.  Of course this is in my bit of the world and not in a CET area. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Stormchaser  
#83 Posted : 25 May 2019 16:09:49(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,772
Man
Location: West Hants

The strongest late-spring stratospheric warming of the polar vortex on record really made a mess of signal-based long-range estimations this month. Only as we head into June does the resulting high-latitude blocking pattern look to relax sufficiently for the UK to start seeing some appreciably warm temps. Though mainly the blocking just focuses on the Pacific side and so 'leaves room' for ridges across the UK with LP systems moving slowly by to the north.

The patterns therefore look to remain very stagnant, with little sign of the typical resurgence of westerlies in response to the rapidly increasing thermal gradient between the low-mid latitudes and the high latitudes.

 

This raises some very interesting possibilities for June. 

For example, the stagnated plume of the GFS 00z is not at all unrealistic, and gives me a rough CET estimate for the opening 9 days of June that's in the low 17s. As far as I'm aware, while that would not be exceptional for July or August, it's near record territory for June - which really shows how much the 'thermal lag' plus typical return of westerlies tends to peg back the temps in the UK.

 

As the Arctic latitudes warm faster than the lower latitudes, with increasingly early onset of spring heating via snow cover loss, I can see this thermal lag becoming increasingly weak in the decades to come, and as such June could be the summer month that sees the greatest warming trend in the UK and N. Europe generally. 

Given that the days are at their longest, the potential is there for June to become seriously toasty. I'd not be surprised to see (at least) one June CET in the 18s within the next two decades.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline ARTzeman  
#84 Posted : 26 May 2019 11:35:02(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,060
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         11.1c.        Anomaly      0.1c. Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                      11.03c       Anomaly      -0.38c

Netweather                   11.34c       Anomaly      0.04c.

Mean of My  10 stations  11.95c.     Difference    -0.07c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline ARTzeman  
#85 Posted : 27 May 2019 10:11:46(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,060
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         11.2c.      Anomaly      0.2c. Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                      11.13c     Anomaly       -0.28c

Netweather                   11.5c       Anomaly       0.21c

Mean of my 10 stations   12.06c.   Difference   0.4c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline ARTzeman  
#86 Posted : 28 May 2019 09:53:40(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,060
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley           11.3c.     Anomaly      0.3c. provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                        11.14c   Anomaly       0.62c

Netweather                     11.53c   Anomaly       0.23c.

Mean of my 10 stations     12.03c. Difference    0 1c.

Forest Town Mansfield  11.7c. Anomaly  -1.15  Using a 6-year average.

 

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline ARTzeman  
#87 Posted : 29 May 2019 11:42:44(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,060
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         11.3c.     Anomaly     0.3c. Provisional to 28th.

Metcheck                      11.13c    Anomaly     -0.28c

Netweather                   11,54c    Anomaly     0.25c

Mean of my 10 stations 12.03c.  Difference  0.01c.      

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Bertwhistle  
#88 Posted : 29 May 2019 12:21:08(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,768
Location: Central Southern England

Very interesting to see how this one pans out; tonight and tomorrow night look pretty warm for the time of year right across the CET region; tomorrow and Friday could potentially see some warm days too. Remember it only takes a 20C max and 12C min to give us a 16C CET day- but with only two days to play with, that would give an excess over the current figure of <10, so about .3 in overall terms. IF HadCET is correct (and remember GW suspects it's too high at the moment and will be downjusted) then we'd perhaps end on 11.5-11.6. Still too low for my own bet, but a smaller gap than I'd feared say a week ago.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Col  
#89 Posted : 29 May 2019 16:55:19(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 942
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Good to see the figure at least holding steady. The cooler weather for this week doesn't seem to be as potent/prolonged as was once forecast. In addition there should be some very mild (even warm) nights coming up which should help nudge the figure higher, despite daytime maxes in the low 20s being hardly notable for late May. It's just a pity May doesn't have 32 days so it could include the very warm/hot temps for Saturday.
But then of course we have the downgrade. It helped me out in April but won't in May. Why does there always seem to be a downgrade, is it simply the correction for the urban heat island effect?

Edited by user 29 May 2019 19:57:09(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline four  
#90 Posted : 29 May 2019 19:50:33(UTC)
four

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 19,454
Location: N.Y.Moors

Month will end on 9.1C (-1.2C) here.
Offline Bertwhistle  
#91 Posted : 30 May 2019 09:44:09(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,768
Location: Central Southern England

At time of looking yesterday's CET given as 11.0°C but update for whole month not on site yet. Will be 11.3 or 11.2

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Online Gavin D  
#92 Posted : 30 May 2019 09:47:46(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,607
Man
United Kingdom

Significant rain for parts of the west over the next 10-day well over 100mm in parts of NW Scotland even the dust bowl south east sees some useful rain

 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Offline Caz  
#93 Posted : 30 May 2019 10:01:15(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,403
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Wrong thread Gavin!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#94 Posted : 30 May 2019 10:23:29(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,060
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post
 

Significant rain for parts of the west over the next 10-day well over 100mm in parts of NW Scotland even the dust bowl south east sees some useful rain

 

Curbs the CET for a couple of Days.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline ARTzeman  
#95 Posted : 30 May 2019 10:27:14(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,060
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley      11.3c.     Anomaly       0.2c.  Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck                   11.21c.     Anomaly         -0.20c

Netweather                11.54c      Anomaly         0.25c

Mean of my 10 Watched stations  12.09c Difference 0.07c. 

Edited by user 31 May 2019 11:31:01(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Online Gavin D  
#96 Posted : 30 May 2019 10:30:12(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,607
Man
United Kingdom

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

Wrong thread Gavin!  

 

Oops 

 

It it's seems a weather forum now can't post weather charts in a dedicated thread

 

Bonkers 

Offline Caz  
#97 Posted : 30 May 2019 12:22:34(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,403
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post
 

Oops 

It it's seems a weather forum now can't post weather charts in a dedicated thread

Bonkers 

I just thought it odd to post June rainfall charts in the May CET thread, but if you meant to, that’s my mistake not yours.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Bertwhistle  
#98 Posted : 30 May 2019 12:22:47(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,768
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley      11.03c.     Anomaly       0.2c.  Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck                   11.21c.     Anomaly         -0.20c

Netweather                11.54c      Anomaly         0.25c

Mean of my 10 Watched stations  12.09c Difference 0.07c. 

Just for clarity, that's 11.3°C. Cheers Art.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#99 Posted : 30 May 2019 12:58:05(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,796
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

Very interesting to see how this one pans out; tonight and tomorrow night look pretty warm for the time of year right across the CET region; tomorrow and Friday could potentially see some warm days too. Remember it only takes a 20C max and 12C min to give us a 16C CET day- but with only two days to play with, that would give an excess over the current figure of <10, so about .3 in overall terms. IF HadCET is correct (and remember GW suspects it's too high at the moment and will be downjusted) then we'd perhaps end on 11.5-11.6. Still too low for my own bet, but a smaller gap than I'd feared say a week ago.

Nice if it was 11.5C I'd be bang on.

 

Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93metres asl.

Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#100 Posted : 30 May 2019 13:01:21(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 66
United Kingdom
Location: Berkhamsted, Herts

Average now seems cool after so many warm Mays... out of interest does anyone have the highest temp for the month so far and is it the lowest for May for some time as I am kind of thinking it must be given that even 1996 managed to go above 25c at the end ?
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