Bring on the new February record max of >20C!

The ECM mean is getting milder for the period around the 14th/15th yesterday 12z it was around +5 today 00z it is around +7

Afterwards a gradual fall back down closer to the average but anything really cold remains beyond D10

The op is on the mild side of the mean towards the end as per the 12z

Doesn't look good this morning does it! Only 5 maybe 6 ECM ENS has anything cold at +348 on the postage stamps.

Before then we have very unsettled conditions with hill snow, strong winds, some heavy rain and maybe even some wintry showers. After the next few days it looks much more settled.

Generally an observer here.
But a big confirmation for me this year is that if ever there is cold/ very cold weather in the US, the chance of cold in the UK is limited....only transient doses.
I remember during the 1991 easterly freeze (I think), Ian Mc. doing a forecast that showed exceptional warmth in the eastern US. Not sure what there weather was like during our beast from the east?
And the freeze continues right to the end of ECM so I hold little hope!

The longer range forecasts in particular have been a spectacular fail this winter season. As for the model output, it has frankly been horlicks beyond day 6 - look at all the day 10 charts from the different models which have never come close to verifying. I keep pointing this out, but Brian was spot on when he posted two ECM charts for the same date which looked the same, when one of them was turned 180 degrees. :-)

Yes it's looking really dire!

Anyone else given up on looking for HLB with an easterly this winter?

I remember someone saying to me in December, - it's too early, and January that it's still mid winter and to be more patient but now we are into 2nd week of February and we are still not seeing any signs of northern blocking at all? Or if an easterly does occur it shorter range models, then it will vanish the next day or next run the ECM 00z run was/is the deal breaker really and it's a prime example of how this can go wrong. Although these 'set ups' /charts we are seeing are perfect summer charts in fact. I hope we see them in summer.

I am also really so keen to know why the Met Office have never mentioned "Turning milder anywhere" - at best they have said milder spells brief and what's interesting is that none of the models support their text forecast between 13th and 22nd Feb - where they mention that it's likely to turn colder than average with possible snow showers to come in from the east.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcj2x8gt4#?date=2019-02-09

Well looking at the model output looks like this coming week will turn drier and milder and next weekend could see temperatures as high as 14c. - This does take us past the 13th of Feb and even past the 17th of Feb - things look generally mild then you read their outlook forecast in their 16 to 30day!?

I know I get criticized for criticising the Met Office forecast but I can't for the life of me understand what's wrong with being honest. The are WRONG. Longer range models are WRONG, which has meant that the Met Office have been wrong. NO longer range model has been correct at all in terms of delivering HLB/Northern Blocking. This whole winter is a complete almighty balls up by models - even the BCC have been poor too.

Also the climate /GFS longer range models predicted a milder mid to late winter over the NW states - But look at the weather over Oregon/Washington states - take Seattle for instance!? They are having really wintry weather and if anything they have seen more snow than ever before or will have done by the end of this week.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/seattle-wa/98104/weather-forecast/351409

My cousin who lives there was telling me how cold this winter has been there and how rare it is to see so much snow and cold for so long!




You look at this and think to yourself - what? that's a really blocked scenario and couldn't get better if you want northern blocking..!? Hust look at all that red?  - I mean have they gone OTT below with the ensemble mean?

Only one model and I have gone off topic but so far this has been really inaccurate has it not?

Where do we go from here? Has anyone else given up on looking for an easterly this winter?

Spot on. I've had commercial clients in the past asking why don't I just +2C to the raw temperature forecasts. I'll not go into the reasoning here, but more often than not it would improve the accuracy IME. 

I agree.

It's (cold) a waste after mid February, kinda like high 20's in late September.

March 2018 cold was exceptional, and rare.

06z ensembles for London:

Gosh the scatter:

Lovely spell of weather coming up for those of us that hate winter and cannot wait to see the back of it. Days are noticeable brighter and longer now. Love it. 

Meanwhile, imagine my shock that an ensemble suite had scatter.....

It can stay there if the alternative is mild sunshine. 

Que sera sera.....

Like you, I'm very happy to see some benign and pleasant weather next week.  Beyond that, who knows?   Anytime from here to early April the wind direction can lurch us between springlike and winter conditions.

It wouldn't take much of a shift, in global terms, to move the high pressure block to a point where a cold feed is established instead of a gentle south or south-easterly.

Very good agreement across the GFS 06z ensemble for high pressure to our east next Friday

lol 2013 one morning of patchy wet snow gone by lunch...

March 2013 was exceptional here. To have a run of maximum temperatures of -1, -1c, 0c, 0c, 1c, 1c after 21st March was amazing . Accompanied by heavy snow and drifting with snow on the ground past Easter. Snow had no problem settling in the middle of the day. Proof that the hunt for cold should keep going well into March.

I wasn't talking about Southsea.

Not much change in the first 4 days if the 12z GFS run.

A fairly settled week ahead according to UKMO

It will be mild by day with Edinburgh as an example shown to have highs of between 10c and 11c from Tuesday to Saturday inclusive

Dare I say it but it will be feeling spring like for a few areas

M,arch 2018 was more memorable for the SW compared to March 2013 - we had maxes of -3c on 1st March 2018 and -1c on 2nd March with heavy snow on both days. The on 17th and 18th March 2018 we had heavy snow and a daytime max of 0.5c on 18th March 2018. (Before the snow arrived) temps fell to -1c by end of day and -3c by that night and early morning of 19th March 2018. 

12z ens shows the milder air peaking around Friday afterwards we see a steady drop down on the mean but remaining above the 30-year average after Tuesday